This graph shows Liam Neeson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
This weekend sees another bevy of wide releases come to theaters, but only one that has its sights set on the top three. That film is Here, a cinematic reunion for Robert Zemeckis, Tom Hanks, and Robin Wright. Unfortunately, things aren’t looking that great for Here, with a spot in the top three not assured and Venom: The Last Dance not going to be troubled in its second weekend in theaters, even with a sharp decline.
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Dune: Part Two’s $82.5 million opening weekend might not be the biggest of 2024 come Monday morning as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire comes crashing into theaters this weekend. The monster movie racked up $10 million from previews on Thursday, just a little behind Dune’s $12 million previews a month ago. Our model doesn’t think the record will fall, but Godzilla could come close…
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As no surprise, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire easily topped the box office charts in its opening week, pushing previous number ones, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 to the second and third place spots respectively. The latest installment fired up just over $45 million in its opening weekend, catapulting the franchise over the $1 billion mark, where it currently sits with $1.014 billion in earnings. This week looks to be a one and done at the top for Frozen Empire as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire smashes into theaters.
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The race to top the box office chart will go into the final lap this weekend, with Gran Turismo holding a fractional lead over Barbie based on Sunday-morning projections, but everything dependent on which film benefits the most from National Cinema Day. Gran Turismo is doing quite well through the weekend, most likely helped by a much more enthusiastic reception from audiences than it has had from critics; but Barbie is likely to get a really good boost from Sunday’s discounted ticket prices. Right now, the two films are expected to earn $17.3 million and $17.1 million respectively, but final earnings are especially uncertain, and we won’t know until tomorrow who will take the checkered flag.
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Gran Turismo looks likely to top the box office chart this weekend, but our predictions are complicated by the fact that we have four new wide releases, a wide re-release, and National Cinema Day on Sunday. In spite of all that, this will almost certainly be the first weekend to gross less than $100 million in total since the weekend of March 31.
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While holding steady from its opening count of 3,871 theaters, Blue Beetle becomes the latest film to become the widest release in its sophomore frame, partially due to Barbie finally dropping below the 4,000-theater mark after spending four of its five weeks as the most widely-available film in North America. Blue Beetle topped last weekend’s box office with just over $25 million and currently holds a six-day domestic total of $32.19 million. This week, however, brings on a slew of fresh films ready to challenge Blue Beetle and Barbie for the box office crown.
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When a mysterious caller puts a bomb under his car seat, Matt Turner begins a high-speed chase across the city to complete a specific series of tasks. With his kids trapped in the back seat and a bomb that will explode if they get out of the car, a normal commute becomes a twisted game of life or death as Matt follows the stranger’s increasingly dangerous instructions in a race against time to save his family.
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Barbie continues to count up impressive numbers on a daily basis, crossing the $500 million mark domestically last Friday, and now with a 27-day North American total of just under $542 million. The film has fared even better overseas as it has charted $660 million from international markets. As Barbie continues to hit milestones and blaze trails, another Warner Bros movie buzzes into theaters in the way of the latest DC superhero film, Blue Beetle, while the R-rated talking-dog comedy, Strays, also makes its arrival.
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The Ant-Man sub-franchise has always been one of the quieter corners of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with the first Ant-Man film opening with $57.2 million back in 2015, and Ant-Man and the Wasp debuting to $75.8 million in 2018. With that track record, and the post-pandemic market, an opening over $60 million should be considered a success for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. It’s been tracking ahead of that number for a while though, and its Thursday previews suggest it will top $100 million this weekend—a welcome boost for a market that’s been waiting quite a while for a major release.
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The wait is over for fans of Ant-Man as the follow-up has finally made its way into theaters—4,345 of them to be exact. That makes it the 40th-widest release of all time, placing itself firmly in between two other franchise sequels, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Its forerunners, Ant-Man, and Ant-Man and the Wasp started out in 3,856 and 4,206 theaters respectively. The third and latest installment of the franchise brings back Paul Rudd as the titular character, while containing a bevy of big name talent including Evangeline Lilly, Jonathan Majors, and Bill Murray, among others.
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Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero is cruising to a solid win at the box office this weekend, with Crunchyroll projecting it will end the weekend with $20.1 million. That’s a shade lower than our prediction on Friday morning, but not by enough to be of particular concern. Likewise, Beast’s $11.57 million weekend will be close enough to Friday’s prediction to call it a win.
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An impressive second-weekend decline of just 33% will keep The Bad Guys at the top of the chart this weekend, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. With another $16.1 million in the bank, the animated comedy will end the weekend at $44 million domestically and over $118 million worldwide. Strong word of mouth and limited direct competition could take it a lot further over the next month or so.
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While we had three new wide releases debut last week, this week looks to be more subdued as only one wide release arrives in theaters. Liam Neeson is back in the action-thriller, Memory. The legendary actor has had a slew of action films as of late, with the latest feature making its theatrical entrance in 2,555 locations.
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In this week’s update to our annual market prediction, I mentioned how important the performance of Death on the Nile will be to gauging the key “older” demographic (in industry terms, “anyone over 25”). So its $1.1 million in previews (which includes some early access screenings on Wednesday, as well as regular Thursday previews) is a welcome sign, and points to a weekend win. Marry Me is also showing good numbers from previews this morning.
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This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
The box office race is overshadowed this weekend by a barrage of release date changes precipitated by the continued terrible situation with the pandemic across North America and a growing acceptance that movie theaters won’t all be open and operating under normal conditions for quite a while. The first domino to fall was No Time to Die, which has moved from April 2 to October 8. Our release schedule changes page has the gory details of all the changes announced by studios in the aftermath. The consensus seems to be that major releases definitely won’t be viable as theatrical-only releases until late April or early May, and the big guns are mostly settling in to the October through December timeframe. It might be a while before we see a tentpole come to theaters that isn’t also being quickly or simultaneously released for the home market, either on a streaming platform or as a PVOD release.
All that adds up to long theatrical runs by default for the films currently at the top of the box office chart. Here’s what our model thinks of them this weekend.
MLK Weekend could have a close race at the box office as new release The Marksman goes head-to-head with Wonder Woman 1984. Our model thinks Wonder Woman has the edge, but it’s likely to be a close-run thing. Liam Neeson has an impeccable pedigree when it comes to action thrillers—this isn’t even his first outing in such a film during the pandemic—and Honest Thief beat expectations with a $3.6-million opening weekend back in October. Here’s what the model thinks about Marksman…
There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.
The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January…
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With limited competition, Honest Thief will cruise to a second box office win according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Open Road is projecting $2.35 million over three days, down 35% from last weekend, for $7.5 million to date. As expected, The Empty Man was not much of a force, although it did slightly improve on our prediction.
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Honest Thief will top the domestic box office this weekend with a $3.7 million opening that is in line with expectations, and provides more evidence that the theatrical business is at least stable in the United States. Relatively good numbers for the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas bolster that argument, although 2 Hearts is underperforming hopes. Overall, it’s a story of two steps forward, one step back.
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After last weekend’s surprise win for The War with Grandpa, this weekend is looking a little more predictable, with Honest Thief expected to comfortably top the chart. The overall strength of the market remains very uncertain, but our model is now assuming about 40% of moviegoers are ready to go to theaters, based on Grandpa’s relative strength last weekend. Liam Neeson is a well-known quantity at the box office, and Honest Thief joins a long line of Neeson thrillers, most of which have done very well at the box office. Our model has this new one opening at around $4.4 million.
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A month ago, October’s line-up of new releases looked weak, but also suggested the movie industry was planning for a steady recovery. The last few weeks have blown that optimism out the water. Wonder Woman 1984, Death on the Nile, and Candyman have all moved from their planned October release dates, and Black Widow has retreated from the first week of November to May next year. 20th Century Studios (i.e., Disney) threw theaters a tiny bone in the form of The Empty Man, which moved up to October 23, but the message is clear: a recovery in the theatrical business is still a long way away, if it comes at all.
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It is a busier week than usual for theatrical releases, with twelve of them in total. Unfortunately, most of them are earning reviews that are merely good, or worse. Much worse in some cases. The few films that have the reviews strong enough to thrive are the wrong genre for the pandemic era. Hopefully films like I Used to Go Here will do well enough in VOD, but don’t expect much in theaters.
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It’s a sad week for DVDs / Blu-rays as there are no top-notch first-run releases. Gretel and Hansel is the biggest and the best first-run release on this week’s list, but its DVD / Blu-ray don’t have enough extras to be a Pick of the Week contender. Likewise, The Lodge is amazing, but its DVD / Blu-ray have no extras… Is Elvira: Mistress of the Dark really the Pick of the Week? It came out last week, but the screener was late, so it is the best release on this week’s list.
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The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part missed expectations over the weekend, leading to yet another disappointing overall performance at the box office. Granted, the box office did climb by 55% from last weekend to $112 million. However, last weekend was the worst weekend at the box office in more than a year. Additionally, $112 million is still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $1.01 billion; however, this is still 15% lower than last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2011, in terms of raw dollars. If we go by ticket sales, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find a slower start to the year.
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The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part reportedly cost $99 million to make and it will earn that much domestically, so it will very likely make a profit and Warner Bros. will be fine. That said, it is estimated to only manage $34.4 million over the weekend, which is about 40% lower than expectations and almost exactly 50% lower than the first film opened with. Its reviews are 84% positive, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore, so it really should have done better than this. This hopefully isn’t a sign that the overall box office is unhealthy, but just a sign that WB has pushed the franchise too much too soon. Internationally, the film started with $18.1 million in 63 markets. This includes a first place, $5.2 million on 1,301 screens in the U.K. It also managed first place in Russia with $1.7 million on 2,493 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in Brazil with just $707,000 on 854 screens, which is the weakest start in the franchise.
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Friday’s box office can best be described as “What happened?” Thursday previews looked promising, but then the Friday numbers arrived and it looks like most of the new releases will miss expectations. This includes The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, which opened with $8.5 million on Friday, $9.1 million including its paid previews from January. This is well below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $32 million over the weekend. Its reviews are 85% positive, but its early CinemaScore is just A minus, which isn’t particularly good for a family film. Next weekend is a long weekend, so I think it will still get to $100 million domestically, which is more than it cost to make. However, a lot of people thought it had a real shot at $200 million domestically, so this is a real disappointment.
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I’m of two minds when it comes to this weekend. On the one hand, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be the biggest hit of the year so far and could be the first true monster hit of the year. On the other hand, it might not be enough to keep pace with last year. Only one other new release, What Men Want, has a shot at $20 million, while the other two releases, Cold Pursuit and The Prodigy, might not reach $10 million. This weekend last year, wasn’t quite as strong when it came to new releases, but it had a massive advantage when it came to holdovers. I think 2019 has a small advantage here, but I’ve been burned before, so I won’t be too surprised if 2019 loses in the year-over-year comparison, again.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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It’s a slow week on the home market, which is common for this time of year. The biggest release of the week, The Post, is also one of the best and one of only three contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end, I went with MST3K: Season 11 and awarded it the honor.
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It is the first long weekend of 2018 and we have four films trying to take advantage of the MLK holiday. However, only Paddington 2 and The Post have a real shot at box office success. The Commuter’s buzz is so quiet that its box office chances have taken a real hit. Worse still, Sony’s treatment of Proud Mary is almost bizarre. I’ve seen limited releases with more marketing push than Proud Mary is getting. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s legs will likely remain really long, helping it repeat as box office champion. More importantly, it should help the 2018 box office get a sizable win in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, there were seven films that earned more than $10 million over the long weekend, but only one film, Hidden Figures, earned more than $20 million. This year, not only will we match that number of $10 million films, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should top $30 million, while Paddington 2 and The Post should top $20 million.
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2017 wasn’t a good year. It started out well and ended on a high note, but the summer was a disaster and that proved to be too much for the rest of the year to overcome. Fortunately, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle are still doing very well and will help January get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, the biggest new release of January is Paddington 2 and it isn’t expected to match its predecessor at the box office; it certainly won’t top $100 million domestically. It is unlikely any of the Oscar contenders will hit the century mark in January either. This is really bad news, as last January, we had a new release, Split and an Oscar contender, Hidden Figures, which both topped that milestone with ease. 2018 should get off to a faster start in the first two weeks, but overall, this month will end with a loss.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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Taken 3 is the second movie I've reviewed this weekend. The first was atrocious, but unfortunately, this one earned even worse reviews. Is it that bad? Is it simply a mindless action film that can take up two hours of your life?
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As expected, Cinderella easily won the race to the top of the box office. However, it didn't quite do as well as expected. Additionally, Run All Night's opening was also a little softer than expected. Fortunately, despite this, the overall box office still bounced back from last weekend growing by 47% to $132 million. This was also higher than last year by 16%, which is really high for a year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 2.3% at $2.01 billion to $1.97 billion. This is not a huge lead, but it is still enough growth that the overall industry should be happy.
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Last weekend was a disaster, the worst weekend at the box office so far this year. This weekend should bounce back with the opening of Cinderella. Its the first family film to come out since The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and its reviews are excellent. The other film opening wide this week is Run All Night, which is the latest Liam Neeson action film. There's not much more that needs to be said about that. This weekend last year was led by Mr. Peabody and Sherman with $21.81 million. Cinderella will crush that figure. In fact, Cinderella might make more than the top five made combined last year.
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February was strong thanks to The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Fifty Shades of Grey, both of which beat expectations. This March could actually be even better, as there are three or four films that have a decent shot at earning $100 million or more. The top film will likely be Cinderella, which has a real shot at $200 million. Insurgent will almost assuredly get beyond the $100 million mark, while Get Hard, Home, and perhaps Chappie will also get to the century mark. Last March, there were four $100 million hits, led by Divergent, which pulled in $150 million. While this March should be better than February, I'm not sure it will be better than last March. I don't think March 2015 will be much worse than last year, but I think its percentage lead will be chipped away at by the end of the month.
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This week on the home market is about as busy as last week was, but there are far fewer contenders for Pick of the Week, as Gone Girl just crushes the competition and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. The next best picks are Empire: Season Five and Love is Strange on Blu-ray.
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A Walk Among the Tombstones opened in September, which is a bad sign. It did earn good reviews, but failed to find an audience in theaters. Granted, it was a September release, so perhaps that's the problem. Or perhaps Liam Neeson has done one too many similar roles and moviegoers have grown tired of these movies.
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2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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Star Wars: The Clone Wars was a digitally animated TV series that took place inbetween Episode II and Episode III. It lasted five seasons before being canceled. It was than revived by Netflix roughly 30 seconds later. (There were many episodes completed or nearly completed at the time the show was canceled.) These 13 episodes are being released on DVD or Blu-ray this week. Are they worth checking out for fans of the show? Or was there a reason the show was canceled before these could be shown?
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Seth MacFarlane wrote and directed Ted, a movie about a talking Teddy bear that earned more than half a billion dollars worldwide. For his next film, he was given free rein. He decided to make A Million Ways to Die in The West, which made less than $100 million worldwide. Did this film struggle at the box office because it is a bad movie? Or is it just too much of a Seth MacFarlane movie? Is it only for his hardcore fans?
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The Maze Runner easily won the weekend box office race this past weekend beating expectations by a little bit with $32.51 million. Unfortunately, the other new releases were not as strong and their combined totals were about 25% lower than the number one film. Overall, the box office was $103 million, which is 14% higher than last weekend and 18% higher than the same weekend last year. This is a fantastic result, given the box office troubles of the past several weeks. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a large margin at $7.38 billion to $7.75 billion, which is a 4.8% deficit. Hopefully this win will help the box office going forward and the fall will be better than the summer was.
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The Maze Runner will be the first film to top $30 million at the box office in six weeks, bringing a welcome boost to the industry at the beginning of the Fall season. With $32.5 million projected for the weekend, and overall positive reviews, Fox could have a modest new franchise on its hands. Things look less rosy for the weekend’s other wide releases. A Walk Among the Tombstones will have a disappointing debut around $13 million—the worst result for a wide release starring Liam Neeson since K-19: The Widowmaker back in 2002, or, if one takes inflation into account, the 1998 version of Les Miserables. This is Where I Leave You lands with a projected $11.86 million, and reviews that aren’t good enough to give it much hope of redemption via word of mouth.
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There are a trio of new wide releases this week, led by The Maze Runner, which is expected to top the box office chart and it is also currently earning the best reviews, although it is so close that it could change with a single new negative review. (It did change about five minutes after writing that, as it fell to second place.) The buzz for A Walk Among the Tombstones hasn't grown like I thought it would, but it still looks on pace to become a midlevel hit. On the other hand, This is Where I Leave You's chances are weakening and it looks like it won't finish in the top three. There is some good news. This weekend last year, Prisoners was the only film to earn more than $20 million, while Insidious Chapter 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have five films earning more than $10 million and the number one film could earn more than $30 million.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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This week's list of new DVD and Blu-rays includes a couple of first run releases, but neither are really must haves. Of all of the theatrical releases coming out this week, Alan Partridge on DVD or Blu-ray is the one I'm most interested in seeing, but the screener is still late. I'm also waiting for the screener for Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey, but I saw every episode on TV and the DVD or Blu-ray is clearly a contender for Pick of the Week. So is True Detective: Season One on DVD or Blu-ray. It was a bit of a coin toss, but in the end I went with Cosmos.
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It has become almost a yearly ritual for there to be a Liam Neeson action film coming out early in the year. This year, it was Non-Stop. How does it compare to other such Liam Neeson action films? Is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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The Nut Job opened earlier this year and was a surprise hit more than doubling its production budget domestically. It did so well that a sequel is already in the works. Is this a good movie? Is it merely good enough for a kids movie? Or did it thrive because there wasn't a lot of competition when it opened?
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Non-Stop led the way at the box office this weekend and like nearly every film in the top five, it beat expectations. Son of God did so well that it reached second place. Even The LEGO Movie had reason to celebrate, as it hit $200 million over the weekend. This helped the overall box office rise 7% from last weekend reaching $118 million. Meanwhile, this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has earned $1.65 billion putting it 11% or $163 million ahead of 2013.
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Girl Rising is a documentary that opened last March. Its opening weekend per theater average was only mixed, but it stuck around in theaters long enough to top $1 million. That's a great run for a documentary. Is it also one of the better documentaries I've seen during the past year?
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Even with awards shows dominating industry headlines this weekend, three movies, none of which are nominated for anything, will manage to top $20 million at the box office. Top of the pile will be Liam Neeson actioner Non-Stop, which will debut with a shade over $30 million. That's the best performance for a non-sequel movie Neeson has headlined. Not far behind, Son of God is projected to earn around $26.5 million this weekend, and Fox is projecting it to top the chart on Sunday. The third movie topping $20 million will be The LEGO Movie, which passes $200 million in the process in its 4th weekend in release.
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It looks like The LEGO Movie will finally relinquish top spot. Non-Stop should lead the way atop the box office charts, but there are some who think Son of God will be a surprise hit. There certainly is precedent for that prediction. While it is the last weekend in February this year, the same weekend last year was the first weekend of March. Fortunately for 2014, the first weekend of March of 2013 was a bit of a disaster as Jack the Giant Killer opened with just $27 million compared to a nearly $200 million production budget. Worse still, no other movie topped $10 million over the weekend. I don't know if Non-Stop will top Jack the Giant Killer, but overall 2014 should come out ahead of 2013.
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February ends with two wide releases, Son of God and Non-Stop. Son of God is a real wildcard and it could tap into the churchgoing demographic and become a surprise hit. On the other hand, since it is just a re-cut of a TV mini-series that its target audience got to see for free last year, it could flop. Non-Stop is much more likely to be the big hit of the weekend and should finally end The LEGO Movie's reign on top. I'm not sure where it will fit with the other Liam Neeson early year movies, but it should be the number one film during its opening weekend, making it the clear choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Non-Stop.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Girl Rising on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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There were quite a few new releases to reach the upper echelon of the March 31st, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. Lincoln was the best of these earning first place with 496,000 units / $14.24 million during its first week of release for a Blu-ray share of 38%. This is really good for a drama.
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The original Taken cost just $25 million to make and was released in January, so expectations were limited. However, it nearly broke the record for a January release and earned more than $200 million worldwide. Needless to say, a sequel was given the greenlight. Taken 2 cost much, much more to make, but did the higher budget translate into a more entertaining product?
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Schindler's List came out 20 years ago and immediately earned near universal acclaim and went on to become the big winner at the 1994 Oscars taking home seven awards out of the twelve it was nominated for. This week it makes its Blu-ray debut. Does it still stand up 20 years later? And is the Blu-ray worthy of the film?
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Life's Too Short is the latest show created by Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant, who have previously made The Office, Extras, etc. That's a really good pedigree, but it does set up high expectations. Can it live up to these expectations?
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This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. Unlike most years, I'm only halfway done with my Christmas shopping. So what recent, and not so recent releases are prime candidates for the perfect gift this year? Over the next month, we will go over several dozen possibilities with our annual Holiday Gift Guide, which is divided into into four sections. This week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on...
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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