2018 Preview: November
November 1, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
The first weekend of November is not the best weekend of the year. There are three wide releases this week, but none of them are sure bets to hit $100 million. Bohemian Rhapsody was expected to reach the century mark, but its reviews are merely mixed and its box office potential is dropping with the weak buzz. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms still has no reviews and its review embargo doesn’t lift till less than 24 hours before it’s released. That’s a terrible sign. Nobody’s Fool is the smallest of the three wide releases and it would be happy with a $50 million domestic run. Suspiria is scheduled to expand wide this week, and given its opening weekend theater average, it should be able to do that. I’m not sure how much mainstream appeal it will have, on the other hand. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok opened with $122 million. That’s more than any of this week’s three wide releases will earn in total. 2018’s winning streak will come to a crashing end.
When this film was first announced, it seemed like a potential Oscar contender, since biopics of celebrities tend to have a leg up on the competition. Awards Season voters love these films. However, that’s not going to be the case. The trouble began this time last year, when the director, Bryan Singer, flaked out again and left the set. He was eventually fired and replaced by Dexter Fletcher. Then the reviews started to come in and they are decided mixed. Rami Malek is earning praise for his performance, but the rest of the movie is stunningly average. This has really hurt the film’s buzz, but I don’t think it has hurt it enough that it will bomb. In fact, it will very likely be the biggest opening of the weekend.
Last Minute Update: The reviews are just shy of 60% positive, but more importantly, the early ticket sales are impressive, so I’m upping the box office potential from $75 million to $95 million.
This is the first Tyler Perry movie to not be distributed by Lionsgate and I think the distributor, Paramount, is trying to stay away from Tyler Perry’s name in the marketing in the hope of more mainstream appeal. If the film earns significantly less than $40 million domestically, then you know this didn’t work, because that would be below average for his recent non-Madea films. If it can earn close to what Night School managed, then it will be a straight up success. I’m not that optimistic, but I do think it will be a financial success.
Last minute update: There are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not a good sign, but it is also not unexpected.
This will be Disney’s weakest film the box office for the entire year. The film had a troubled production, with extensive reshoots needed, which pushed back its planned release. Now Disney isn’t lifting the review embargo until less than 24 hours before the film’s release. On the other hand, it is a family film opening during the holiday season, so it shouldn’t bomb entirely and it could match its estimated production budget domestically. Even if its reviews are a mess, it could still be good enough for kids and become a holiday favorite for some. This would result in very long legs on the home market.
Last minute update: The reviews are in and they are not good. In fact, they are a little weaker than expected. I’m not going to drop the film’s box office potential just yet, but if it gets less than an A minus from CinemaScore, then its box office potential will take a real hit.
I didn’t think this film would be able to expand truly wide and I was about to leave it off the list. Then it opened with just over $180,000 in just two theaters. That will certainly encourage a lot of theaters to book the movie. On the other hand, it is still a strange film and the critical response is mixed. I fear having a box office run similar to mother! will be as good as it gets. On the high end, it could do as well as Hereditary did earlier this year. That said, while the film might be too weird for mainstream audiences, it has serious cult classic potential.
Last Minute Update: It turns out “expands wide” means 250 theaters. The film will need to stay in the $10,000 club on the theater average chart to match its $25 million box office potential. I’m not overly optimistic.
The second weekend of November is better than the first. Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch is a potential $200 million hit and if the most bullish predictions are correct, it could become the biggest hit of the month. Right now, it is a coin toss to get $200 million, but that could change, depending on the reviews. The first film in the English-Language Millennium franchise earned just over $100 million domestically, but that was a long time ago. Meanwhile, the buzz surrounding the book series has dried up, so I really don’t think The Girl in the Spider’s Web will be anything more than a midlevel hit. It might not even get there. Meanwhile, Overlord is a World War II horror movie that was rumored to be part of the Cloverfield franchise, but that rumor was officially denied. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok remained in top spot with $57 million, while Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express opened with a combined $58 million. That’s going to be nearly impossible for 2018 to match.
This is the third major adaptation of this story. The original TV special from the 1960s is still considered the best, while the live action film from 2000 earned mixed reviews, it still broke records at the box office. This film’s buzz is somewhere in-between, both in terms of box office potential and expected reviews. Illumination’s previous Dr Seuss adaptation, The Lorax, wasn’t loved by critics, but it was a $200 million hit. This is a more popular story and the holiday box office season is upon us, so that should help it out at the box office. I’m still worried about its reviews and whether or not they will hurt its box office chances, so I’m being a little cautious, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
The Millennium book series was super popular about a decade ago. There were movies made of the first three books in their native Sweden and the first book was adapted in English. However, that movie, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo barely matched it production budget domestically and wasn’t a big enough financial success to justify a sequel. Worse still, the buzz surrounding the books is much quieter this time around, even with new installments in the book series being published. I don’t think it will be the smallest film opening this week, but I also don’t think it will be a midlevel hit either.
Overlord was originally scheduled to open the weekend before Halloween, which is usually a really bad time to release a movie, unless it is a horror film. However, it was pushed back two weeks to get away from the larger horror films opening earlier in October. I don’t know if this will work out. By the time it opens, there will be no direct competition in the top five, but November isn’t a great month for horror films. Perhaps if the rumors are true and it is part of the Cloverfield universe, that will generate some additional buzz. I know those were officially denied, but that could just be a trying to keep it secret a little longer. Regardless, the early reviews are overwhelmingly positive and that could help the buzz grow as the release date nears.
This week features what will likely be the biggest hit of the month, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. However, most assume it won’t quite live up to the previous fantastic beasts installment. Widows is the most commercial film made by Steve McQueen and its reviews are award-worthy. Meanwhile, Instant Family is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. A Private War is supposed to expand wide this week, but its average score on Rotten Tomatoes is just 6.1 out of 10. That’s too low to expect it to expand truly wide. This weekend last year was led by Justice League. There’s almost no chance The Crimes of Grindelwald will open as fast, while the depth this year won’t be as good either, resulting in another loss for 2018 in the year-over-year comparison.
Fantastic Beasts was the weakest installment in the Harry Potter franchise, both critically and at the domestic box office. (And that’s before you take inflation into account.) It still managed an A from CinemaScore, so I don’t think Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald’s box office numbers will slip from the previous installment, at least not by a statistically significant margin. That said, if the reviews slip further, I could see the franchise starting a downward trend at the box office. Granted, it could lose 50% at the box office and the films would still be profitable, but they would no longer be able to carry the studio like they did a decade ago.
Rose Byrne and Mark Wahlberg play a couple looking to adopt a toddler, but end up adopting three siblings instead, including a teenager.
The buzz surrounding this film is really quiet, so much so that I’m a little worried about its box office chances. It does have some star power on both sides of the camera. The last two films Sean Anders directed have hit $100 million, but I think this film will be lucky to get halfway there. That could change, if the buzz starts to get louder as the release date nears.
Steve Rodney McQueen directs this remake of a British TV miniseries from the 1980s. It’s about four criminals who die during a botched heist. However, the crime boss decides their widows still owe him his cut of the heist, so the women have to finish the job their husbands died trying to complete. The film’s reviews are award-worthy and Steve McQueen has already won an Oscar for Best Picture, so Awards Season voters will take note of this film. Additionally, this is the most commercial film Steve McQueen has made and any Awards Season buzz it picks up should help it sell more tickets.
Thanksgiving weekend is exceptionally busy this year with as many as five films opening or expanding wide. However, of those five, only two are expected to do any serious business. Ralph Breaks the Internet will easily be the biggest hit of the weekend and could become the biggest hit of the month. Meanwhile, Creed II likely won’t live up to its immediate predecessor, but it still has a shot at $100 million domestically. On the other hand, Robin Hood is expected to bomb. Furthermore, I’m not 100% convinced Green Book is going to open truly wide this week. Lastly, The Front Runner is opening in limited release on the 6th of November with a planned wide expansion this week. I’m also not convinced this will work out either; in fact, I don’t think it will ever enter the top five on the box office chart and I will be skipping it here. This weekend last year, Coco was the only wide release of the week. I think Ralph Breaks the Internet will open faster, because it is a sequel, while there are a lot more new releases to help boost the box office. That said, I think last year’s depth will prove too much for 2018 to overcome.
The previous installment in the Rocky franchise was a surprising success in every sense of the word. It earned over $100 million at the domestic box office, 95% positive reviews, and even an Oscar nomination. It makes complete sense that there would be yet another sequel in this franchise. Most people don’t think Creed II will live up to Creed, but as long as its reviews are certified fresh, it should do well enough to break even early in its home market run.
This film is set in the 1960s and Mahershala Ali stars as an African-American pianist who tours the American Deep South. Viggo Mortensen plays a New York City bouncer who is hired to be his driver during the tour. So far, its reviews are award-worthy, but I’m not 100% convinced it will open truly wide. Additionally, there are two films larger than it opening this weekend, so the competition will be tough. That said, if it does become an Awards Season contender, it could be a midlevel hit and earn enough domestically to cover its entire production budget.
Wreck-It Ralph earned 87% positive reviews, an A from CinemaScore, nearly $200 million domestically, and nearly $500 million worldwide. It is no surprise that a sequel was made. Ralph Breaks The Internet has mixed buzz, but only when directly compared to its predecessor. Most people think it will be a hit at the box office; in fact, most think it will top its predecessor in that regard. However, a lot of people don’t think Ralph Breaks The Internet will do as well with critics. I would be surprised if it didn’t become certified fresh with 75% positive reviews and I would be absolutely shocked if it didn’t land in the A range with CinemaScore. That said, I would also be surprised if it performed better in either regard.
As for its box office chances, I think it will hit $200 million domestically, with a little help from Disney, plus another $400 million internationally, for a $600 million worldwide total.
This is one of many Robin Hood scripts that were in development at the same time. Depending on what source you look at and what you consider “in development” to be, there’s anywhere from three to ten Robin Hood films currently in development. This is the first to get to theaters. Although, if it does as poorly as most think it will, it might be the only one that gets to theaters, as studios might decide going ahead with their version isn’t worth the budget. This will very likely be the smallest of the four releases coming out this week. In fact, Green Book has a nearly 50/50 chance of topping it, even if it opens in limited release. That’s how weak the buzz is for this film.
It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving. Historically, this is one of the worst weeks of the year to open a film, so much so that many years, there are no true wide releases. This year, The Possession of Hannah Grace is the only film opening wide, maybe. I wouldn’t be surprised if it opens in under 2,000 theaters. I would only be a little surprised if it opened in under 1,000. This weekend last year was actually the first weekend of December. There were no wide releases last year, so it will mostly be a battle of holdovers this weekend.
The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically one of the worse weekends of the years. Even though The Possession of Hannah Grace has no competition, it will probably still bomb at the box office and even if it does open truly wide, it only has a 50/50 shot of hitting $10 million in total.
Weekend of November 2nd, 2018
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Bohemian Rhapsody
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Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/BohemianRrhapsody
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: November 2nd, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic elements, suggestive material, drug content and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Rock 'n' Roll, 1970s, Entertainment Industry, Biography, Music Industry, 1980s, AIDS, LGBT
Directed By: Bryan Singer
Written By: Justin Haythe, Anthony McCarten
Starring: Rami Malek
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million
Nobody’s Fool
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Official Site: Paramount.com/Movies/Nobodys-Fool
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: November 2nd, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for sexual content and language throughout, and for drug material.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
African-American, Life on the Outside, Dysfunctional Family, Romance, Internet Dating
Directed By: Tyler Perry
Written By: Tyler Perry
Starring: Tiffany Haddish, Tika Sumpter
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/The-Nutcracker-and-the-Four-Realms
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: November 2nd, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for some mild peril.
Source: Based on Folk Tale/Legend/Fairytale
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
War, Dancing, Circus, Family Movie, 3-D, Fairies, Royalty, Ballet
Directed By: Joe Johnston
Written By: Ashleigh Powell
Starring: Mackenzie Foy, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Morgan Freeman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $65 million
Suspiria
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Official Site: Suspiria.movie
Distributor: Amazon Studios
Release Date: October 26th, 2018 (Limited Release)
Release Date: November 2nd, 2018 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for disturbing content involving ritualistic violence, bloody images and graphic nudity, and for some language including sexual references.
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Berlin, 1970s, Ballet, Same Actor, Multiple Roles, Hauntings, Surrealism / Absurdism
Directed By: Luca Guadagnino
Written By: David Kajganich, Dario Argento, Daria Nicolodi
Starring: Dakota Johnson, Tilda Swinton, Mia Goth, Lutz Ebersdorf, Chloë Grace Moretz, Angela Winkler, Renee Soutendijk
Production Budget: $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million
Weekend of November 9th, 2018
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Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
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Official Site: GrinchMovie.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: November 9th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for brief rude humor.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Christmas, Christmas in November, Single Parent, Animal Lead, Widow/Widower, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, 3-D, Voiceover/Narration
Directed By: Scott Mosier, Yarrow Cheney
Written By: Michael LeSieur, Dr Seuss
Starring: Benedict Cumberbatch
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $80 million to $100 million
Box Office Potential: $175 million
The Girl in the Spider’s Web
Official Site: https://www.GirlInTheSpidersWeb.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: November 9th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Delayed Sequel, Sequel With Lead Character Recast, Hackers, Revenge, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Internet, Cyber Warfare, Government Corruption
Directed By: Fede Álvarez
Written By: Steven Knight, Fede Álvarez, Jay Basu, David Lagercrantz
Starring: Claire Foy
Production Budget: Reported at $43 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Overlord
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Official Site: Paramount.com/Movies/Overlord
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: November 9th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence, disturbing images, language, and brief sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords:
World War II, Nazis, Scientific Experiment Gone Awry, Behind Enemy Lines, Occult, Super Soldiers
Directed By: Julius Avery
Written By: Billy Ray, Lionel Mark Smith, Billy Ray
Starring: Jovan Adepo, Jacob Anderson, Pilou Asbaek, Iain De Caestecker, John Magaro, Wyatt Russell, Bokeem Woodbine
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Weekend of November 16th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Official Site: FantasticBeasts.net
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: November 16th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some sequences of fantasy action.
Source: Spin-Off
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
New York City, London, Ensemble, 1920s, Secret Magic, Good vs. Evil, Romance, Faulty Memory, Forbidden Romance, Prequel
Directed By: David Yates
Written By: J.K. Rowling
Starring: Johnny Depp, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Katherine Waterston, Zoë Kravitz, Jude Law, Alison Sudol, Dan Fogler, Callum Turner, Claudia Kim
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $175 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $225 million
Instant Family
Official Site: InstantFamily.org
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: November 16th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic elements, sexual material, language and some drug references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Family Movie, Adopted Family, Orphan, Young Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent
Directed By: Sean Anders
Written By: John Morris, Sean Anders
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Rose Byrne
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million
Widows
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Widows
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: November 16th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence, language throughout, and some sexual content/nudity.
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Heist, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé, Organized Crime, Money Troubles, Remake, Boxing
Directed By: Steve Rodney McQueen
Written By: Steve Rodney McQueen, Gillian Flynn, Lynda La Plante
Starring: Viola Davis, Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Cynthia Erivo, Colin Farrell, Brian Tyree Henry, Daniel Kaluuya, Robert Duvall, Liam Neeson
Production Budget: $40 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of November 23rd, 2018
Creed II
Official Site: CreedTheMovie.com
Distributor: MGM
Release Date: November 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sports action violence, language, and a scene of sensuality.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Boxing, Screenplay Written By the Star, Father's Footsteps
Directed By: Steven Caple Jr
Written By: Sylvester Stallone, Cheo Hodari Coker
Starring: Sylvester Stallone, Florian Munteanu, Michael B. Jordan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $85 million
Green Book
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Official Site: GreenBookFilm.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: November 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic content, language including racial epithets, smoking, some violence and suggestive material.
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Bigotry, Discrimination, Road Trip, African-American, Musicians, On Tour
Directed By: Peter Farrelly
Written By: Nick Vallelonga, Peter Farrelly, Brian Currie
Starring: Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali
Production Budget: Reported at $28.9 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Ralph Breaks The Internet
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Ralph-Breaks-the-Internet-Wreck-It-Ralph-2
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: November 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for some action and rude humor.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Internet, Video Game, Franchise Crossover, Gratuitous Cameos, 3-D
Directed By: Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Written By: Phil Johnston, Pamela Ribon
Starring: John C. Reilly
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $175 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $205 million
Robin Hood
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Official Site: RobinHood.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: November 21st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for extended sequences of violence and action, and some suggestive references.
Source: Based on Folk Tale/Legend/Fairytale
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Robin Hood Bandits, 1300s, England
Directed By: Otto Bathurst
Written By: Joby Harold, Peter Craig, David James Kelly
Starring: Taron Egerton
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $30 million
Weekend of November 30th, 2018
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The Possession of Hannah Grace
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Official Site: PossessionOfHannahGrace.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: November 30th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for gruesome images and terror throughout.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Supernatural, Security Guard, Possessed
Directed By: Diederik Van Rooijen
Written By: Brian Sieve
Starring: Kirby Johnson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Suspiria, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Widows, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Robin Hood, Ralph Breaks The Internet, The Girl in the Spider’s Web, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, The Front Runner, Creed II, Instant Family, Overlord, Nobody’s Fool, Green Book, A Private War, The Possession of Hannah Grace, Harry Potter, Rocky, Madea, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Cloverfield, Millennium (English), Johnny Depp, Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Jude Law, Mark Wahlberg, Sean Anders, Dario Argento, Rose Byrne, Benedict Cumberbatch, Viola Davis, Iain De Caestecker, Robert Duvall, Colin Farrell, Peter Farrelly, Dexter Fletcher, Dan Fogler, Joe Johnston, Michael B. Jordan, Keira Knightley, Rami Malek, Helen Mirren, Chloë Grace Moretz, John Morris, Viggo Mortensen, Scott Mosier, Tyler Perry, Eddie Redmayne, John C. Reilly, Michelle Rodriguez, Bryan Singer, Sylvester Stallone, Tilda Swinton, Katherine Waterston, Bokeem Woodbine, David Yates, Claire Foy, Peter Craig, Zoë Kravitz, John Magaro, J.K. Rowling, Dr Seuss, Yarrow Cheney, Ezra Miller, Phil Johnston, Dakota Johnson, Pilou Asbaek, Rich Moore, Wyatt Russell, Elizabeth Debicki, Tika Sumpter, Steve Rodney McQueen, Daniel Kaluuya, Mackenzie Foy, Billy Ray, Brian Currie, David Kajganich, Cheo Hodari Coker, Anthony McCarten, Mahershala Ali, Joby Harold, Justin Haythe, Fede Álvarez, Steven Knight, Lionel Mark Smith, Renee Soutendijk, Mia Goth, Nick Vallelonga, Michael LeSieur, Gillian Flynn, Taron Egerton, Callum Turner, Lynda La Plante, Julius Avery, Luca Guadagnino, Otto Bathurst, Angela Winkler, Jay Basu, Claudia Kim, Isabela Moner, Tiffany Haddish, Steven Caple Jr, David James Kelly, Alison Sudol, Jacob Anderson, Pamela Ribon, Jovan Adepo, Diederik Van Rooijen, Brian Tyree Henry, Cynthia Erivo, David Lagercrantz, Ashleigh Powell, Florian Munteanu, Daria Nicolodi, Lutz Ebersdorf, Brian Sieve, Kirby Johnson