Weekend predictions: Marksman and Wonder Woman in head-to-head battle

January 15, 2021

The Marksman

MLK Weekend could have a close race at the box office as new release The Marksman goes head-to-head with Wonder Woman 1984. Our model thinks Wonder Woman has the edge, but it’s likely to be a close-run thing. Liam Neeson has an impeccable pedigree when it comes to action thrillers—this isn’t even his first outing in such a film during the pandemic—and Honest Thief beat expectations with a $3.6-million opening weekend back in October. Here’s what the model thinks about Marksman…





Under normal circumstances, Liam Neeson thrillers open in the $10 million to $15 million range, but the model is heavily discounting box office expectations due to the terrible situation with the pandemic right now. The film is playing in roughly 65% of the number of theaters we’d usually expect, and only 25% of regular filmgoers are currently turning out. That adds up to an expected opening of $2.2 million, which isn’t much more than half of what Honest Thief made on debut in October.

Overall, that’s a harsh assessment by the model, and it may prove to be overly bearish. If it is, The Marksman has a shot at top spot…





Wonder Woman 1984 has tended to slightly underperform expectations over the past couple of weeks, and if it falls by more than expected and The Marksman comes in strong we could well have a new film at the top of the chart this weekend. Overall, the market should grow a bit because the holiday holdovers are likely to decline only slightly.

Two films film to look out for are News of the World and Promising Young Woman, both of which are making their PVOD debut today. We haven’t seen much sign that PVOD releases are doing damage to the box office performance of films, and our model doesn’t adjust for them. This is the first time we’re seeing early PVOD releases outside the holidays, so it will be a chance to see if they really do harm box office.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman 1984, Honest Thief, Promising Young Woman, News of the World, The Marksman, Liam Neeson