February 5th, 2019
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We are finally getting to the massive fall hits on the home market, as Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch hits the home market this week. It is the biggest release, but not the best. The Pick of the Week was a coin toss between Maquia: When The Promised Flower Blooms and Widows. In the end, the latter won, but both are worth buying.
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January 24th, 2019
We’re getting close to the monster hits from fall finally coming out on the home market. Closer, but we are not quite there yet. This week’s biggest release is First Man, but it is not the best. The race for Pick of the Week came down to three contenders: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, The Hate U Give, and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set Three. It was a close race, but in the end The Hate U Give won out.
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January 12th, 2019
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November 27th, 2018
The weekend box office was more lucrative than predicted with both Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II breaking records. Depending on how technical you want to be. Ralph Breaks the Internet led the way with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend and $84.47 million over five. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Nearly every other film on this week’s list also topped predictions helping this weekend to rise 26% from last weekend hitting $216 million over the three-day period. This was also 15% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a more important result. I was really expecting 2018’s lead over 2017 to be down significantly from its peak; however, instead it has stretched its lead to $1.04 billion or 11% at $10.53 billion to $9.49 billion.
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November 19th, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the weekend box office chart; however, it failed to meet expectations by about 10%. Additionally, neither Instant Family nor Widows matched expectations and this hurt the overall box office, which fell 2.9% from last weekend to $172 million. More importantly, this is 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has reached $10 billion and now has a running tally of $10.18 billion. This is 11% or $1.01 billion ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 18th, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the chart over the weekend. However, the opening is weaker than expected with an estimated $62.2 million. Additionally, it has weaker reviews (40% vs. 74%) compared to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; a worse CinemaScore (B plus vs. A); and a lower internal multiplier (2.43 vs. 2.51), so this film's legs will likely be much shorter and getting to $200 million might be asking too much. On the other hand, the film has an estimated $191 million internationally, so there’s no reason to worry for Warner Bros., as this movie will be fantastically profitable in the end.
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November 17th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opened in first place with $25.7 million on Friday. The film actually had better previews than Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but its Friday was 13% below its predecessor. This is a bad sign for its legs. Additionally, its reviews fell to just 40% positive, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. On the positive side, the film is doing much better internationally and the film already has $74.3 million in just two days of international release. It will break even on just its international numbers, but the film’s poor reception with critics and moviegoers could hurt the rest of the installments in the Fantastic Beasts franchise.
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November 16th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald earned $9.1 million during previews on Thursday, which is better than Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them managed. Granted, it was better by mere percentage points, as that earlier film earned $8.75 million during its previews. Where it goes from here is a bit of a mystery. On the one hand, its reviews are much worse than the previous installment’s reviews were and it is a sequel. Both of those facts suggest shorter legs. However, the gap between Fantastic Beasts and the last original Harry Potter film may have resulted in a much more front-loaded run, so The Crimes of Grindelwald could benefit from that. As always, we will know better this time tomorrow when Friday estimates are out.
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November 15th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is the latest installment in the Harry Potter franchise, but sadly, its reviews are, by far, the worst in the franchise. It should still have no trouble earning first place and will very likely break even just on its international numbers, but this is still troubling for its future. The second biggest release of the week is Instant Family and its reviews are good, but not great. They are certainly fine for a family comedy. Widows is the best-reviewed new release, but its buzz is quiet enough that it will barely finish in the top five. Meanwhile, A Private War is expanding nationwide and that could help it earn a spot in the top ten, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Justice League opened with $93.84 million, while Wonder debuted in second place with $27.55 million. Add in The Star’s $9.81 million opening and the three wide releases pulled in $130 million. There’s no way the new releases this year will match that and 2018 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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August 15th, 2018
Thriller starring Viola Davis, Elizabeth Debicki, Michelle Rodriguez, and Cynthia Erivo opens November 16 ... Full Movie Details.
The story of four women with nothing in common except a debt left behind by their dead husbands’ criminal activities. Set in contemporary Chicago, amid a time of turmoil, tensions build when Veronica, Alice, Linda and Belle take their fate into their own hands and conspire to forge a future on their own terms.
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