August 21st, 2013
New releases were rather sparse on the June 23rd, 2013 edition of the DVD sales chart. Granted, Jack the Giant Slayer did earn first place, but it was the only new release in the top five. It sold 319,000 units and generated $4.79 million in revenue, which is weak given the film's production budget.
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July 29th, 2013
There were a lot of new releases on the Blu-ray sales chart this week. This includes Oz the Great and Powerful, which led the way with 472,000 units / $13.21 million during its first week of release. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 46%, which is a good start for a visually impressive adventure film.
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July 29th, 2013
New releases earned the top three spots on the DVD sales chart, but there was only one other to earn a spot in the top 30. Oz the Great and Powerful earned first place with 549,000 units / $9.97 million, which is a good result, given the time of year.
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June 12th, 2013
Another typical summer week on the home market. There are a few first-run releases, but nothing that is a blockbuster. There are more TV on DVD releases, including a couple that were contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes Burn Notice: Season Six, but the screener is late, so I'm holding off. Enter the Dragon gets an Anniversary Edition Blu-ray and it is a contender. However, in the end I went with The Newsroom: The Complete First Season on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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June 9th, 2013
Snitch opened in late February, which is not a great time of year to release a major hit. It is not a complete dumping ground like January or September, but most films released during this month will be lucky just to become a midlevel hit. Snitch topped admittedly low expectations becoming a middling hit. A final box office of $43 million isn't bad for that time of year. Does this also describe its quality. Is it not bad, for a February release? Or is it better than its box office numbers would indicate?
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April 25th, 2013
It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 12th, 2013
Oz the Great and Powerful matched predictions perfectly with close to $80 million. The rest of the box office was well back, but there was still reason to celebrate, as the overall box office grew 28% from last weekend to $140 million. More importantly, it rose 5.4% from last year. Even so, 2013 is still way behind 2012's pace at $1.72 billion to $1.97 billion. I don't think 2013 can recover from this deficit, especially with 2012's biggest hits yet to come.
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March 7th, 2013
There are two wide releases opening this week, but their relative box office potentials could hardly be more different. Oz the Great and Powerful is opening in nearly 4,000 theaters and could make more than the rest of the box office combined. Dead Man Down, on the other hand, is opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and on the low end of expectations, might not make the top five. The main competition for Oz is The Lorax, which opened last year with just over $70 million, while it made close to $40 million this weekend last year. If Oz fails to match that lower number, then the box office is in world of trouble. Let's be honest, the box office is already in a world of trouble, but if Oz bombs, then it is as good as dead.
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March 4th, 2013
The box office was mostly disappointing over the weekend. Jack the Giant Slayer was able to match expectations, more or less, but this was bad news because its expectations were really low compared to its production budget. The other two wide releases, 21 and Over and The Last Exorcism Part II both struggled and failed to live up to the low end of expectations. There was a fourth film that was supposed to open wide, but in the end, Phantom opened in barely more than 1,000 theaters and didn't even come close to the Mendoza Line. The overall box office did grow by 6.0% from last weekend to $109 million. However, that was 35% lower than the same weekend last year. This is several layers of disaster. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $1.55 billion, but that is 7.9% lower than 2012's pace. I don't see it getting better going forward and for the most part, the rest of the month is really bad in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 1st, 2013
There are four wide releases this week, but only one of them, Jack the Giant Slayer, has a real shot at first place. I think 21 and Over and The Last Exorcism Part II should be in a close race for second place, but not everyone agrees. As for Phantom, most think it won't even reach the top ten. As for this weekend last year, The Lorax led the way with just over $70 million. There's no real chance any film will earn that much this weekend. In fact, there's a small chance Jack the Giant Slayer won't match Project X's opening of $21 million. It's going to be a bad weekend at the box office.
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February 27th, 2013
The winners of our Snitches Get Prizes contest were determined and they are...
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February 25th, 2013
The Oscars proved to be too much competition for the new releases as neither Snitch nor Dark Skies were able to find much success. Indeed, it was Identity Thief that rose to top spot in its third week of release. Most films in the top five were able to at least match expectations, but the overall box office still plummeted 27% from last weekend to just $103 million. The comparison to last year was not quite as bad, but it was still down by a stunning 23%. Ouch. 2013 is now behind 2012 by a full $100 million or 6.7% at $1.41 billion to $1.51 billion.
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February 24th, 2013
The box office crown for Oscar weekend will be claimed by Identity Thief, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, even though the comedy will fall by a relatively large 41% from last weekend. So its win is in large part due to the low-key new releases: Snitch will be second with $13 million in a modest 2,511 theaters and Dark Skies is headed for 6th place with $8.85 million from 2,313 theaters. Neither new film has particularly low per theater averages ($5,177 and $3,826 respectively), so their so-so debuts are as much a factor of their smallish opening theater counts as lack of demand.
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February 21st, 2013
There are just two wide releases coming out this week, Snitch and Dark Skies. Most analysts think Snitch is the stronger of the two films, but most also think Identity Thief will return to top spot. Looking at all of the evidence, it certainly seems that way. Unless one of the new releases is a truly big surprise, it looks like we won't keep pace with last year again this weekend. 2013 needed to get off to a really fast start, because there's no film that's going to match The Hunger Games, and once we are dealing with that film in the year-over-year comparison, 2013 might be sunk for good.
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February 15th, 2013
Next weekend is the final weekend of February and while there are two films opening wide, Snitch and Dark Skies, neither of them look like they will be big hits, or even midlevel hits. Snitch's box office potential is only marginally stronger than Dark Skies' is so it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Snitch.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Swamp People: Season Three on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Storage Wars: Volume Four on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2013
For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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