Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2018 Awards Season: Oscars: And the Winner is... Green Book for Best Picture

February 24th, 2019

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations: Final Look

February 24th, 2019

It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning. More...

2018 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 23rd, 2019

The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each. More...

2018 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Nominations

January 12th, 2019

The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here. More...

Home Market Releases for July 24th, 2018

July 24th, 2018

It is an incredibly slow week on the home market. Most of the films in the main list would be filler on even a below average week. The only real exception is Ready Player One, which did earn better than expected reviews, but it’s still not Pick of the Week material. There were a few actual contenders for that title, including Gravity Falls: The Complete Series and A Matter of Life and Death, but in the end, I went with In the Mouth of Madness on Blu-ray. More...

Home Market Releases for July 3rd, 2018

July 3rd, 2018

We are deep into the summer doldrums on the home market. Blockers is the biggest first-run release of the week, and also the best. The DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack is a contender for Pick of the Week, thanks in part to the lack of competition. It’s not the only contender, as both Dietrich and von Sternberg in Hollywood: The Criterion Collection and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set 2: Stardust Crusades Arc are also worthy of that title. In the end, I rolled a dice and Blockers came out on top. More...

International Box Office: Infinity Tops the Charts even without China

May 3rd, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War broke the record for highest international debut and highest worldwide debut. The film was expected to do well, but breaking records like this is impressive, especially since it hasn’t opened in China yet. The film started with $380.0 million in 52 markets for a global opening of $637.7 million. It is already the second biggest worldwide hit of the year and just shy of the top 100 all-time. The film’s biggest opening was in the U.K., where it earned $40.50 million in 650 theaters, but this is only the third biggest opening of all time there. On the other hand, it had the biggest opening of all time in South Korea with $27.52 million on 2,553 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $38.79 million. The film also cracked $20 million in Mexico, with an opening of $24.80 million, while it topped $10 million in Brazil ($18.8 million); India ($18.6 million); Australia ($16.07 million on 940 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $22.65 million); and Germany ($14.7 million). The film opens in Russia this weekend and China the following weekend and by the time the film opens in China, it will likely be the biggest global hit of 2018. More...

International Box Office: Rampage Retains Lead on International Chart

April 25th, 2018

Rampage remained in first place on the international chart with $58.0 million on 33,140 screens in 61 markets, for totals of $217.6 million internationally and $283.3 million worldwide. The studio’s share of this is very likely above the film’s $120 million production budget, so it has an excellent shot at breaking even early in its home market run. The film’s biggest market of the weekend was China, where it earned $27.07 million on 16,900 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $106.57 million. The film has yet to open in France, Germany, and Japan and by the time it’s done, it will be very close to breaking even. More...

Weekend Predictions: The Quiet Before the Storm

April 19th, 2018

There are two wide releases this week, I Feel Pretty and Super Troopers 2, as well as a semi-wide release that has a shot at the top ten, Traffik. However, most analysts think A Quiet Place will return to first place on the box office chart. Meanwhile, Infinity War opens next week and that’s all most moviegoers are talking about and this will likely really hurt this week’s box office. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious remained on top with $38 million, while the top three films combined earned $60 million. I don’t think 2018 will be able to match that, but it should be close. More...

International Box Office: Rampage Runs Roughshod over Competition topping Century Mark

April 18th, 2018

Rampage dominated the international box office earning more than the rest of the top ten combined with $115.7 million on 40,200 screens in 61 markets for a worldwide opening weekend of $151.5 million. The film’s biggest opening was in China, where it managed $54.88 million on 21,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $55.56 million. This is a good result, compared to recent results. It’s better than Tomb Raider managed, but not as good as Ready Player One, for example. The U.K. and South Korea were in a close race for second place with the former earning $5.8 million on 883 screens and the latter earning $4.99 million on 909 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.60 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Rampage Climbs Ahead of A Quiet Place with $35.75 million

April 16th, 2018

Rampage was widely expected to earn first place over the weekend, and it did. However, A Quiet Place gave it a real run for its money and after Friday’s estimates, it looked like the horror film would repeat on top. Meanwhile, Truth or Dare was also a pleasant surprise at the box office earning close to $19 million on a $3.5 million production budget. Overall, the box office fell 9.8% from last weekend to $147 million. This is also 13% lower than the same weekend last year. That said, The Fate of the Furious opened this weekend last year and earned almost $100 million, so it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind behind 2017 by $70 million or 2.0% or $3.27 billion to $3.33 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Quiet Looks to Silence Rampage

April 14th, 2018

Rampage earned first place on Friday, barely, with $11.5 million. Its reviews slipped down to exactly 50%, but that’s still the best ever for a wide release based on a video game, and it earned an impressive A minus from CinemaScore. This adds up to a $32 million opening weekend. Unfortunately, the film cost $120 million to make and even more for its global P&A. And as we will see shortly, A Quiet Place was right on its tail on Friday. Fortunately, the film is doing better in some international markets. For example, it earned $15.6 million in China alone, with an early estimate of $21.2 million for Saturday. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Rampage Shake Up the Box Office?

April 12th, 2018

Rampage is the biggest new release of the week and at one time it was widely assumed it would be the biggest hit of the month. Granted, this changed the second Infinity War moved up to an April release. However, now the film likely won’t even be the second biggest hit of the month, as A Quiet Place dominated last weekend. Truth or Dare has to deal with direct competition and that’s going to kill it. Finally, Isle of Dogs is expanding semi-wide. It likely won’t reach the top five, but it is already doing well for a limited release. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious opened with nearly $100 million. That’s about what the top four will earn this year. I can’t imagine 2018 coming ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Ready Remains First, Nears $400 million Worldwide

April 10th, 2018

Ready Player One remained in first place on the international chart with $83.8 million on 33,787 screens in 65 markets for totals of $297.1 million internationally and $393.6 million worldwide. The film’s best new market was Germany, where it opened in first place with $2.88 million on 866 screens. Its best market overall was China with $43.45 million in 17,738 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $162.26 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Quiet Place Helps the Box Office Make Some Noise

April 9th, 2018

A Quiet Place not only topped predictions, it nearly doubled them earning $50.20 million during its opening weekend. The rest of the new releases also beat expectations, albeit by much smaller margins. Blockers nearly matched its production budget, while Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season didn’t embarrass themselves. Add in some strong holds and the total box office was a surprisingly robust $162 million. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is still behind 2017 by $60 million or 1.8% at $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion. This is half as much as the gap was this time last week, which is great news going forward. More...

Weekend Estimates: A Quiet Place Opens in the Black with $50 million

April 8th, 2018

If it weren’t for Black Panther, A Quiet Place would be the biggest surprise hit of the year so far. The film earned $50 million during its opening weekend, on a budget of just $17 million. Its initial ad buy was probably less than $25 million, meaning this film earned more in its opening weekend that its combined budget. However, I assume Paramount Pictures put in at least another $10 million ad buy on Saturday after Friday’s estimates showed up. As for the film’s future, its reviews are close to Award-worthy and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is impressive for a horror film. Additionally, the film saw its score rise on Saturday when compared to Friday, which is not common for a new release. Previews plus the opening day rush usually result in small declines for films aimed at this target audience. It is still a horror film and next week there is big competition and direct competition, so its legs likely won’t be great, but its nearly guaranteed a profit by this time next week. More...

Friday Estimates: A Quiet Place has Deafening Opening with $19 million

April 7th, 2018

There are people at Paramount Pictures walking around with confused looks on their faces. They don’t know what to do, because it has been so long since they have had an unqualified box office hit like this. A Quiet Place earned $19 million on Friday, which is well above expectations and more than it cost to make. Its reviews are 97% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is amazing for a horror film. Granted, horror films still tend to be front-loaded, but an opening weekend of close to $50 million is possible. Being a little more conservative is probably a good idea, so let’s go with $47 million. We would have to go back to 2016's Arrival to find the last time Paramount had a film that was an unqualified box office hit. That film likely broke even early in its home market run. A Quiet Place will likely break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will April Have a Quiet Start?

April 5th, 2018

There are only two wide releases this week, A Quiet Place and Blockers, both of which are expected to be midlevel hits. There are also two films opening semi-wide, Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season, neither of which are expected to open in the top five. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby led the way with $26.36 million during its second weekend of release. A Quiet Place could top that, but even if it does, last year’s depth will probably keep 2017 behind 2018 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Ready Starts Out Number One Internationally with $127.5 million

April 4th, 2018

Ready Player One opened in first place on the international chart with $127.5 million on 35,600 screens in 62 markets. Its biggest single market was China with $61.61 million on 18,200 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $62.06 million. This is Warner Bros.’ biggest opening ever in this market. The film’s second biggest international market of the weekend was South Korea, where it earned second place with $6.35 million on 1,079 screens for a total opening of $8.08 million. The film also had to settle for second place behind Peter Rabbit in the U.K. with $7.3 million on 1,251 screens. The film did open in first place in several other major markets, including France ($6.15 million on 719 screens) and Russia ($5.74 million on 1,461). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spielberg’s Decade Best Can’t Save Overall Box Office

April 3rd, 2018

Ready Player One not only opened in first place over the weekend, but its three-day total of $41.77 million was Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekend as a director in almost exactly a decade. Acrimony was a solid second place finisher with $17.17 million. God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness missed the top ten. Overall, the box office rose 4.9% from last weekend hitting $136 million, but this was still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 is now 4.9% or $150 million behind 2017’s pace at $2.84 billion to $2.99 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ready Player One Solid On Debut

April 1st, 2018

The gulf between blockbusters and also-rans could hardly be starker these days. Since the release of Black Panther to a whopping $202 million on February 16, three movies that could have caught the general public’s imagination have arrived on the scene, and earned somewhere between a fifth and a seventh of that on opening weekend. Ready Player One is the most successful among them, with an opening of $41.2 million predicted by Warner Bros. as of this morning. That compares favorably to the openings of A Wrinkle in Time (which started out with $33.1 million), and Pacific Rim: Uprising ($28.1 million), and is, in fact, the best weekend in 2018 for a movie not called Black Panther, but it barely starts to chip away at considerable marketing costs, let alone a reported $150 million production budget. More...

Friday Estimates: Player One is Ready and Able with $15.2 million Friday

March 31st, 2018

Ready Player One earned first place on Friday with $15.2 million, for a two-day total of $27.2 million. Continuing the comparison I’ve been doing with G.I. Joe: Retaliation, this news is mixed. Ready Player One had a much better preview night, which we can attribute to previews being relatively new when Retaliation came out. The two films’ 24-hour Thursday numbers were nearly the same, and now Ready Player One has slipped just behind Retaliation’s pace. Ready Player One does have very good reviews, but the two films both earned A-minuses from CinemaScore, so they should have similar legs. I’m still going to give the edge to Ready Player One at $41 million / $52 million, but it is close. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Player Starts Out as Number One

March 30th, 2018

Ready Player One pulled in $12.1 million on Thursday, including $3.75 million in previews. If we again compare this start to G.I. Joe: Retaliation, we see some good news, but also some troubling news. Relatiation only managed $2.6 million in previews, but $10.51 million on Thursday, so Ready Player One has shorter legs already. That said, Relatiation came out before previews were as big as they are now, so perhaps it is better just to judge the film’s Thursday numbers. If we use the full Thursday numbers, then Ready Player One is on pace for a $47 million / $59 million opening weekend. If we just use the 24-hour Thursday numbers, then Ready Player One will open with $41 million / $51 million over the weekend. Ready Player One does have better reviews, but they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore, so perhaps having the same legs from now on is more likely than not. We will have a better idea once Friday’s numbers are out. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Player One Ready to Dominate the Box Office? (With Preview Numbers)

March 29th, 2018

March comes to a close with three wide releases. Of these, only Ready Player One is expected to be even a midlevel hit. In fact, it will likely earn more over its four-day weekend than the other two films earn in total. Acrimony should open in the mid to low teens, while God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness will barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby opened with just over $50 million. Maybe Ready Player One will make that much over four days. Even if it does, 2017’s impressive depth means there’s almost no chance 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2018 Preview: March

March 1st, 2018

February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month. More...

Ready Player One Trailer

December 12th, 2017

Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi adventure, starring Tye Sheridan opens March 30 ... Full Movie Details. More...