Weekend Predictions: Will April Have a Quiet Start?

April 5, 2018

A Quiet Place

There are only two wide releases this week, A Quiet Place and Blockers, both of which are expected to be midlevel hits. There are also two films opening semi-wide, Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season, neither of which are expected to open in the top five. This weekend last year, The Boss Baby led the way with $26.36 million during its second weekend of release. A Quiet Place could top that, but even if it does, last year’s depth will probably keep 2017 behind 2018 in the year-over-year comparison.

A Quiet Place could be the first box office hit for Paramount Pictures this year. This studio had a rough time ever since they lost the distribution rights to the MCU. This film’s reviews are 99% positive and its average score is 8.1 out of 10. This film could have much longer legs than the average horror film. Look for an opening weekend of just over $25 million, while it has the potential to be a breakout hit with over $30 million.

Ready Player One opened on Thursday last week, so its decline over the three-day period this week should be mitigated by this. In fact, a sub-50% decline is possible. I’m not that optimistic, but I think it will be close with just under $20 million during its second weekend of release, putting it on pace for $100 million by the end of its third weekend of release.

Blockers will likely open in a solid third, if not, second place. Its reviews are not as good as the previous film, but still great, especially for an R-rated movie. The buzz is also solid for this film and it has an outside shot at opening with more than $20 million, which is essentially what it cost to make. Even if it opens in the mid teens, it will still have a good shot at earning enough to pay for its production budget on its domestic theatrical numbers alone. I’m going with a prediction of $17 million, but I hope I’m pleasantly surprised by the end of the weekend.

Tyler Perry movies tend to have short legs, as his fans rush out to see the movie, but the lack of crossover appeal kills its word-of-mouth. His average multiplier as a director is just 2.30. If Acrimony has a run similar to Temptation, it will fall 53% this weekend to $8 million. This should still be enough for fourth place.

Look for Black Panther to round out the top five with between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend. The film has already overtaken Jurassic World for fourth place on the All-time Domestic Chart and will pass Titanic by the end of the weekend.

Many people think both Chappaquiddick and The Miracle Season will miss the Mendoza Line this weekend. Chappaquiddick has a better shot at avoiding that fate, but it will be close. The film was originally set for an Awards Season debut last November, but I don’t think it would have competed in that market. Its Tomatometer Score is 80% positive, while its average score is 7.2 out of 10. That’s good enough for a drama to do well in wide release, but it is not good enough to be an Awards Season contender. The film is only opening in about 1,550 theaters and it could get $4 million over the weekend, but $3 million is more likely.

Finally we get to The Miracle Season. It is the only new film on this week’s list not earning 80% positive reviews or better. In fact, it’s reviews are currently 31% positive. It is also expected to do the worst in terms of box office numbers earning less than $3 million.

- A Quiet Place Comparisons
- Blockers Comparisons
- Chappaquiddick Comparisons
- The Miracle Season Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Ready Player One, Blockers, Chappaquiddick, A Quiet Place, Acrimony, The Miracle Season, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Tyler Perry