June 19th, 2019
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It is a shallow week with a lot of films on the main list that would be secondary Blu-ray releases on a normal week. There are only two contenders for Pick of the Week: Us and Killing Eve: Season Two. The Us Blu-ray screener hasn’t arrived yet, but it is still Pick of the Week, even with an unknown quality of extras.
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June 17th, 2019
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Slaughterhouse Rulez is the first film produced by Nick Frost and Simon Pegg’s new production company. I was really looking forward to the movie, but then the reviews came out and my enthusiasm dampened, a lot. Is it better than its Tomatometer Score? Or is having low expectations the only way to see this film?
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December 3rd, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout will likely end up being Paramount’s biggest hit released in 2018. (Bumblebee has a very slim shot at topping it.) It also earned some of the best reviews of any wide release of the year. Do I agree with the critical consensus? Or am I in the minority?
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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March 1st, 2018
February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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November 18th, 2017
Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have two new features to talk about. Firstly, we have a series of new acting records for the various categorizations we use. For example, the highest grossing leading actors in films based on a TV show. The number one actor is Shia LaBeouf, who starred in the first three Transformers movies. Number two is Tom Cruise, who is the star of the Mission: Impossible franchise, while number five is Justin Long, who provided the voice for the titular character in the Alvin and the Chipmunks films. Starting to notice a pattern? Nearly everyone on the top of this list is someone who starred in one TV adaptation that turned into a lucrative franchise. The only exception is Simon Pegg, who has been in two of these franchises: Mission: Impossible and Star Trek trilogy.
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May 12th, 2017
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It is a busy week for limited releases. Not only are there are lot of films coming out, but most of them have a sizable number of reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting there is at least some buzz. Unfortunately, a number of these movies are earning reviews that are mixed, or worse. Furthermore, there are many that are playing in too many theaters for limited release or playing on VOD, neither of which will help their box office chances. As for top picks, I would see Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe in theaters or Hounds of Love on Video on Demand.
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November 22nd, 2016
It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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October 31st, 2016
Long time readers don’t need me to explain how much I love Star Trek in all of its incarnations. ... Okay, most of its incarnations. I haven’t been a fan of the first two installments in the reboot franchise. The third film, Star Trek Beyond, was the weakest of them at the box office. Is it also the weakest of the three in quality? Or was the third the charmed?
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July 1st, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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April 4th, 2016
After ranking Star Wars: The Force Awakens for those who still haven't seen it, we can do a full featured review. The film smashed box office records here and earned 92% positive reviews. Is it as good as its box office / Tomatometer Score? Or did people just get caught up in the hype?
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November 11th, 2015
It is not a particularly strong week for limited releases, as there are none that really jump out as potential breakout successes. Man Up is earning some of the best reviews, but it is the wrong genre for limited release, as Rom Coms rarely do well enough in limited release to expand wide. (On a side note, one of the exceptions was My Big Fat Greek Wedding. The trailer for the sequel just came out. Nearly 15 years is a long time between the original and the sequel.) James White feels a lot more like a traditional limited release, one that can do really well in the art house circuit.
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July 8th, 2015
It's a slow week, which should come as no surprise. There are no major releases and even among the smaller releases, there are few that are must haves. As far as Pick of the Week contenders go, Dude Bro Party Massacre 3 is the best. It is the Pick of the Week, but you can only get it on the Official Site. I think it is worth the price for the Superfan Edition, but I also backed the Kickstarter at the Blu-ray level, so my judgment is not to be trusted.
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July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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April 10th, 2015
It is an excellent week for limited releases with two films earning stunning reviews and loud buzz: Clouds of Sils Maria and Ex Machina. I think the former has a better chance to expand significantly, but hopefully both will find audiences in theaters. There are also a number of other limited releases earning amazing reviews: About Elly, Black Souls, The Sisterhood of Night, etc. In fact, there are too many to think all of them will thrive.
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February 2nd, 2015
It is a slow week on the home market, and will remain a slow week until the winter blockbusters start coming out. According to Amazon.com, this week the biggest release is John Wick. Granted, the Blu-ray Combo Pack is Pick of the Week material, but the film only made $43 million at the box office, so it likely won't sell a lot on the home market. The other two contenders for Pick of the Week are The Overnighters on DVD or Blu-ray and Dear White People - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Are three are worth picking up. The Overnighters is arguably the best, but I love the Film Noir style in John Wick, so I'm awarding that one the Pick of the Week.
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September 19th, 2014
It's an overly busy week for limited releases with nearly two-dozen films on this week's list. There are a number of films on this week's list that are earning outstanding reviews, like 20,000 Days on Earth, or strong buzz, like The Zero Theorem. But there are not a lot earning both. Films like Stop the Pounding Heart or The Guest will likely not live up to their Tomatometer Scores. Tracks is probably the film with the best chance at breakout success.
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February 7th, 2014
It's another busy week for limited releases with more than a dozen of them on this week's list. This does mean I'm not going to be as talkative about each individual film, because there are just so many of them. Fortunately, there are also a few that are worth checking out, like Vic + Flo Saw a Bear, Alphaville, etc. If I were to chose just one film, it would be Kids for Cash, but the subject matter will enrage you.
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November 24th, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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November 18th, 2013
The World's End is the final film of the Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy. The first two films were Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz. This film was the least financially successful of the three films, but is it also the weakest? If so, is it so weak that it isn't worth checking out?
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September 9th, 2013
Star Trek: The Original Series began nearly 50 years ago and created a TV and movie franchise that is still going on. The franchise has had its share of low points, but the 2009 reboot, Star Trek, revitalized the franchise at the box office. Star Trek into Darkness did even better at the box office. But did it deserve this box office success? Does it live up to franchise as a whole?
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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May 1st, 2013
As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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