July 14th, 2023
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Mission: Impossible, Dead Reckoning—Part One will need to pick up its pace over the weekend to come in close to pre-release expectations. Its Wednesday and Thursday numbers ($15.5 million and $8.3 million, respectively) are perfectly respectable, but they point to a five-day opening under $70 million, and a Friday–Sunday weekend well behind Mission: Impossible—Fallout’s $61.2 million back in 2018.
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January 12th, 2019
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
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December 12th, 2018
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three.
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December 4th, 2018
It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top.
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December 3rd, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout will likely end up being Paramount’s biggest hit released in 2018. (Bumblebee has a very slim shot at topping it.) It also earned some of the best reviews of any wide release of the year. Do I agree with the critical consensus? Or am I in the minority?
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November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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September 19th, 2018
There was a close three-way race for top spot on the international chart, but The Nun was able to retain first place with $34.1 million on 12,107 screens in 62 markets for totals of $144.8 million internationally and $229.9 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market of the weekend was Belgium, where it made $1.42 million on just 86 screens. This was easily enough to earn first place there and was the biggest opening for the franchise. The film’s biggest holdover was in Brazil with $3.5 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $12.6 million.
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September 12th, 2018
The Nun topped the chart with $79.3 million on 15,835 screens in 60 markets for a global opening weekend of $133.1 million. This might be enough to give Warner Bros. a small amount of profit already. It depends on how much the studio will end up spending on advertising. The film’s biggest opening was in Mexico, where it earned $10.5 million on 3,967 screens. It also earned impressive first place debuts in Indonesia ($7.6 million on 1,289 screens); Brazil ($6.6 million on 1,235 screens); and India ($5.2 million on 1,603 screens). It earned first place in the U.K., but with $5.3 million on 593 screens, which is quite a bit weaker than its debut here, relative to the size of the two markets. This is also true of its first place, $2.7 million debut on 326 screens in Australia.
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September 6th, 2018
It’s the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office. However, that’s not the case this year, as The Nun is expected to be a major hit. In fact, it should have the best opening in the franchise so far. On the other hand, Peppermint will be happy with a second place debut. Finally, God Bless the Broken Road is opening semi-wide, but the box office lacks any real depth, so it could come close to the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend It destroyed the record book. There’s no way 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but 2018 has such a large lead over 2017 that even a few embarrassing losses won’t put a serious dent into it’s advantage.
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September 5th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout rocketed into first place with $89.1 million in 65 theaters over the weekend for totals of $442.7 million internationally and $647.1 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $76.14 million over the weekend for a total opening of $77.64 million. It had to settle for second place in Italy with $2.22 million, as Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation remained in first place in that market. It won’t take long before this film takes over top spot in the franchise.
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September 5th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians came close enough to our predictions over the weekend that I’m willing to call it a victory. The only other film to earn more than $10 million over the three-date weekend was The Meg. This wasn’t enough to help the overall box office grow, but the overall box office only fell 3.6% when compared to last weekend earning $99 million. It is a little disappointing to drop below the $100 million mark, but it could have been much worse. Speaking of much worse, this weekend last year, the overall box office was just $76 million, meaning 2018 improved on the three-day mark by 29% and stretched its year-to-date lead. 2018 now sits 10.6% or $790 million ahead of 2017 at $8.22 billion to $7.43 million. The lead won’t remain this large for long, not with It’s opening on the horizon. That said, it would take a spectacular collapse for 2018 to completely lose this lead.
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September 3rd, 2018
We have some Monday morning updates for the weekend box office and as expected, Crazy Rich Asians continued to dominate at the box office. It earned $6.21 million on Monday for a four-day total of $28.31 million and a three-week total of $117.04 million. It became just the fourth film released by Warner Bros. this year to get to the century mark and it will quickly become the studio’s biggest hit of the year so far, as it will overtake Ocean’s 8 shortly.
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September 2nd, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is just destroying the competition over the weekend and should pull in an estimated $22.24 million over the three days. We won’t have a Monday estimate from Warner Bros. until Monday, but I would imagine the four-day weekend would be about $28 million, giving the film a running tally of $117 million after 20 days of release. This is a little lower than our weekend prediction, but close enough that I’m calling it a victory. Internationally, the film made $10.4 million on 1,565 screens in 24 markets for an early total of $19.9 million. The film opened in Australia with $5.4 million on 447 screens, which is better than its opening here, relative to the size of the two markets.
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September 1st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians will easily remain on top of the chart this weekend, as it earned $5.87 million on Friday. Depending on when you are reading this, it might have already crossed $100 million domestically, a milestone it will certainly reach by the end of business on Saturday. The film is on pace for $24 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four, matching our prediction perfectly.
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August 31st, 2018
The last weekend of summer is a slow weekend. There’s only one true wide release, Kin, and it’s not expected to open in the top five. Operation Finale is opening in just over 1,800 theaters, but it should open in the top five, even though it is a Wednesday release. Searching is expanding into 1,200 theaters this weekend and that should get it into the top ten. Meanwhile, Crazy Rich Asians should complete the threepeat without any real competition. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million.
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August 29th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp jumped into first place on the international chart earning $71.2 million in 28 markets for totals of $332.6 million internationally and $544.1 million worldwide. This past weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $66.62 million over the weekend for a total opening of $68.14 million. This is the fourth biggest opening for the MCU in that market and 66% more than the original opened with. The film opens in Japan, its final market, next weekend. It should get to $600 million worldwide shortly after it debuts there.
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August 28th, 2018
Summer officially ends next weekend with Labor Day, but Crazy Rich Asians is keeping the summer going with a sophomore stint of $24.80 million over the weekend. This is nearly twice as much as the second place film, The Meg. Meanwhile, the only true wide release of the week, The Happytime Murders, missed low end expectations with $9.53 million. The overall box office is down 21% from last weekend to just $103 million. That’s a sharp decline, but not uncommon for this time of year. More importantly, it was 49% more than the same weekend last year. That’s not as impressive as it seems, as this weekend last year one of the worst weekends in the past decade. Year-to-date, 2018 extended its lead to 10.1% or $740 million at $8.05 billion to $7.19 billion. On the down side, it won’t be long before 2017 really starts to eat into that lead.
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August 25th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is this year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard, at least in terms of legs. The film fell just 4% from its opening Friday earning $7.0 million on this Friday. The film was a Wednesday opening, so it likely won’t perform better on Saturday compared to last weekend, but the film will still earn about $23 million over the weekend. The book Crazy Rich Asians is based on is the first in a trilogy and I would be amazed if Warner Bros. hasn’t already begun work on the next two installments.
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August 23rd, 2018
Summer is winding down and there are only one and a half wide releases this week. The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy that is probably too out there to find an audience. Meanwhile, A.X.L. is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and tracking has it opening below the Mendoza Line. This does mean Crazy Rich Asians has a real shot at repeating on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million. This year, we should have two or three films do the same and 2018 should easily win in the year-over-year chart.
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August 21st, 2018
The Meg remained in first place on the international chart with $68.9 million on 23,767 screens in 55 markets, for totals of $232.2 million internationally and $316.0 million worldwide. Its biggest new market of the weekend was Australia, where it earned first place with $2.48 million on 413 screens. It also opened in South Korea, but struggled with $1.57 million on 598 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.19 million. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $30.78 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $117.09 million. It fell just 38% during its sophomore stint, while it actually rose to second place, despite there being four new releases in the top ten. That’s stunning.
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August 21st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat the weekend estimates by more than $1 million, which is great news for the film’s future, as it suggests even better word-of-mouth. The rest of the new releases were well back, but their weakness didn’t sink the weekend box office, as it pulled in $129 million. This was still down 12% from last weekend, but more importantly, this was a stunning 35% higher than the same weekend last year, which helped extend 2018’s lead over 2017. 2018’s lead is now 9.6% or $690 million at $7.88 billion to $7.19 billion. I suspect we have likely nearly reached the peak this lead will be throughout the rest of the year, but it would take a major collapse for 2018 to not finish with a healthy victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 19th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat expectations and easily came out on top of the box office over the weekend. The film earned $25.24 million between Friday and Sunday, for a five-day opening of $34.00 million, which is amazing for a film that cost $30 million to make. It not only beat our original prediction, but its weekend estimates have grown since it debuted on Wednesday, which is a very good sign that the word-of-mouth is helping ticket sales. Its 92% positive reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore back up that explanation. With this opening, the film would have to have terrible legs and completely bomb internationally to not break even. Having terrible legs seems unlikely, but we will know more about that next weekend. As for its international numbers, the film hasn’t opened in any major international markets, so it is too soon to tell. It does debut in Australia before the end of the month, so that will be the film’s first big test.
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August 18th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way on Friday with an impressive $7.26 million. Since it opened on Wednesday, it should have better legs than most new releases earn. Likewise, its reviews and its A from CinemaScore will also help its legs, putting it on pace for between $22 million and $23 million over the three-day weekend. Over four days, the film should make about $31 million, which is more than it cost to make. Even taking into account the studio’s share of the box office, Warner Bros. will cover its production budget before the end of the month, just on the its domestic numbers. Unless it really struggles internationally, it will break even before it reaches the home market. This might be enough to get more movies with predominantly Asian-American casts made in Hollywood.
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August 16th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians leads a group of three films, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews. It also opened with $5.01 million on Wednesday, so its already looking like a box office success. On the other hand, Mile 22 has the worst reviews of the week and its buzz is only mediocre. That said, its buzz is still louder than Alpha’s buzz is. On the other hand, Alpha’s reviews are good enough that if it doesn’t struggle too much during its opening weekend, then its word-of-mouth should help its legs. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $21.38 million. That’s probably more than any film opening this weekend will make. On the other hand, the only other film to earn more than $10 million last year was Annabelle: Creation, while we should have four films do the same this year. The depth should help 2018 earn an easy win.
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August 16th, 2018
The Meg led the way on the international chart cracking the century mark with $101.5 million on 30,212 screens in 42 markets and a worldwide opening of $146.9 million. This is great news, and the film cost Warner Bros. $130 million to make, after tax rebates and the like, so the film needed a monster opening to break even any time soon. The film’s biggest market was China, where it earned $49.83 million on 16,307 screens. It only managed third in that market, but it was a very busy weekend with two massive local hits also debuting this weekend. The film was able to top the charts in Mexico with $6.30 million on 1,936 screens and in Russia with $5.48 million on 2,628. It wasn’t as potent in the U.K., but it still topped the chart with $4.66 million in 499 theaters. The film has yet to open in South Korea, Australia, France, and Japan, so it should stick around the top five for a bit.
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August 14th, 2018
The Meg was arguably the biggest box office surprise of the summer, earning more during its opening weekend than many thought it would earn in total and it doubled our prediction. It also earned more than the next three films earned combined, so it was a rather one-sided affair at the box office. Its $45.40 million debut did help the overall box office rise 5.6% from last weekend reaching $147 million. More importantly, this is 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 now has a 9.1% / $640 million lead over 2017 at $7.68 billion to $7.04 million.
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August 12th, 2018
The Meg not only beat our initial prediction, it topped yesterday’s revised estimate and that’s a really good sign. Warner Bros. is reporting an opening weekend of $44.5 million. If this is accurate, then the film’s internal multiplier will be a healthy 2.70. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore and that’s not a great sign for its long term chances. However, there are no movies opening for the rest of the summer that are as big as this film, so that could help its legs. After all, The Hitman’s Bodyguard had a multiplier of 3.53. Internationally, the numbers were even better, as the film earned $96.8 million, including $50.3m on 12,650 screens in China. It is also a hit in Mexico ($6.2 million) and Russia ($5.0 million), although it is a more muted success in the U.K. with $4.4 million. That last market is on par with what we thought the film would open with here. On a side note, you are more likely to die eating shark that being eaten by a shark, so don’t kill sharks. They are apex predators and are very important to the environment.
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August 11th, 2018
Surprisingly, The Meg dominated the box office on Friday with a very summer-like opening day of $16.5 million. There were some who thought the film wouldn’t earn that much during the entire weekend. Our prediction wasn’t that pessimistic, but this result still blows it out of the water. The film earned 51% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Both results are fine. They are nothing special, but also nothing to worry about. The genre does tend to be front-loaded, so a $40 million weekend isn’t not a sure thing, but more of a coin toss. Even if the film doesn’t reach that mark over its opening weekend, this will still be a major win for Warner Bros., which has not has a good year.
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August 9th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this week. This includes Dog Days, which started on Wednesday. However, while it was released first, it is widely expected to be the last at the box office of the five wide releases. The Meg is widely expected to be the biggest new release of the week and it is the only film with a real shot at unseating Mission: Impossible—Fallout for top spot. I was expecting BlacKkKlansman to only open in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, but it is opening in 1,500 theaters giving it a real shot at a top five opening. Finally there’s Slender Man, a horror movie based on an internet meme that peaked years ago. It likely won’t be the worse box office performer of the weekend, but I’m not sure it will reach the top five. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the last blockbuster of summer opening with $35 million. No movie is going to match that this year. However, all three new releases made less than $50 million, while the four new releases could top that this weekend. I don’t think 2018 will win, but it should at least be close.
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August 8th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout returned to first place on the international chart with $76 million in 56 markets for totals of $205 million internationally and $330 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in both Japan and France, earning $8 million in each market. By this time next week, the film will no longer be in last place for the franchise, but it is still too soon to tell if it will become the biggest hit out of the six films.
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August 7th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout remained on top of the weekend box office chart thanks in part to a stronger than expected hold and in part to weaker than expected competition. Christopher Robin was the only new release to make any real noise opening in second place with $24.59 million, while The Spy Who Dumped Me opened with less than half of that. Overall, the box office earned $139 million, 11% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this was 14% higher than this weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2017 to just under $600 million or 8.7% at $7.46 billion to $6.86 billion.
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August 5th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout fell just 43% during its second weekend earning $35.0 million for a two-week total of $124.5 million. It will have no trouble getting to $200 million domestically, especially with the weak competition for the rest of the month.
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August 4th, 2018
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There was a virtual tie on top of the Friday box office chart, which was good news for Paramount, but not so good news for Disney. Mission: Impossible—Fallout held on better than expected, remaining in first place with $9.85 million, and putting it on pace for $34 million over the weekend. With this result, it will cruise to $200 million domestically. This would be the first $200 million hit for Paramount since Transformers: Age of Extinction came out in 2014. Four years is a long time between $200 million hits.
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August 2nd, 2018
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There are four films opening wide or semi-wide during the first weekend of the August. This includes the only potential $100 million hit, Christopher Robin. The Spy Who Dumped Me’s roller coaster ride on Rotten Tomatoes appears to be coming to an end at the mediocre end of things, but that’s not bad compared to the average August release. On the other hand, bad is the best way to describe The Darkest Minds, while calling Death of a Nation “bad” is a glorious understatement. While most of the new releases are not expected to make an impact at the box office, there could be a close race on top between Christopher Robin and Mission: Impossible—Fallout. This weekend last year, The Dark Tower opened in first place with just under $20 million. This year, the top two films should beat that with ease. Last year’s depth was better, but 2018 should still win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 2nd, 2018
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Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood dominated the theater average chart earning first place with $28,144 in one theater. The next closest film was a fellow documentary, McQueen, which earned an average of $16,692 in five theaters during its second weekend of release. The overall number one film, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, was next with an average of $13,962. The final film in the $10,000 club was Puzzle, with an average of $12,243 in five theaters.
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August 1st, 2018
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Hello Mr. Billionaire, a Chinese remake of Brewster’s Millions, opened in first place in China and the international market with $132.26 million. That’s more than 800 million in the local currency, while it took just one more day to live up to its name and reach 1 billion Yen in revenue.
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July 30th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout was easily the biggest hit of the weekend earning more than the rest of the top five combined. Its opening weekend of $61.24 million was the best in the franchise, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the overall box office from dropping 9.3% from last weekend earning $156 million. This is 8.0% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important result. 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of 8.5% or $570 million at $7.23 billion to $6.66 billion.
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July 29th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout dominated the weekend box office chart with $61.5 million over the weekend. This is the best opening in the franchise, unless you take inflation into account. Assuming the film can have the same legs as Rogue Nation, it will be able to top $200 million domestically. The film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore, and the nearly total lack of quality competition in August, make that seem likely; however, I think we should wait a week before predicting a final box office tally. Internationally, the film made $92 million in 36 markets, which is close to 20% higher than Rogue Nation’s debuts in those markets, which should be enough to keep Paramount happy. Although given the studio’s struggles in the past few years, if the film was just marginally profitable, it would have been reason for Paramount to celebrate.
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July 28th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout earned $23.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for an opening weekend of $58 million, according to Paramount. This is the fastest start in the franchise; although given the age of the franchise and the ticket price inflation, that’s much less impressive. The film’s reviews are among the best we’ve seen from a wide release this year, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so its legs should be long. That said, this is weaker than we predicted. I really thought the reviews would translate into more ticket sales.
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July 27th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout had the best previews in the franchise with $6 million; although that’s a bit of a backhanded compliment, as only Rogue Nation is new enough to be part of the preview era of Hollywood releases. That film pulled in $4 million during its previews; however, it also opened three years ago when previews were not as lucrative, so it is not a good comparison. On the other hand, The Equalizer 2 is a solid comparison as both are action sequels. If the two films have the same legs, then Fallout will open with nearly $70 million. Its reviews strongly suggest it will have better legs, but the long-running franchise suggests slighly longer legs. Overally, I’m still happy with our $67 million prediction and I expect the film to earn a little more than that, but be close enough to call it a victory.
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July 26th, 2018
The last weekend of the month has two wide releases, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Mission: Impossible—Fallout is the sixth film in the franchise. It wasn’t that long ago where a sixth installment in a franchise would be impressive. Teen Titans Go! To the Movie is the first big screen appearance for most of these characters. There should also be three, maybe four other films with $10 million or more during the weekend. 2018 won’t need that depth to win in the year-over-year comparison, as this weekend last year was pretty weak, so the month should end on a winning note.
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July 22nd, 2018
In a shocking turn of events, The Equalizer 2 overtook Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! over the weekend with $35.83 million. This is better than predicted and is better than the original managed. Its reviews are not great, but it earned an A from CinemaScore and it is aimed at a more mature target audience, so it should have better than average legs. We will have a better picture this time next week. Internationally, the film managed $3.3 million on 704 screens in 11 markets, including $2.2 million in Australia. The film first didn’t do great internationally, so while this is a 30% improvement, it is still nothing special.
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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May 17th, 2018
Action movie starring Tom Cruise opens July 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 7th, 2018
Thriller starring Tom Cruise opens July 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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