Weekend Prediction: Will The Nun be Second to None?
September 6, 2018
It’s the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office. However, that’s not the case this year, as The Nun is expected to be a major hit. In fact, it should have the best opening in the franchise so far. On the other hand, Peppermint will be happy with a second place debut. Finally, God Bless the Broken Road is opening semi-wide, but the box office lacks any real depth, so it could come close to the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend It destroyed the record book. There’s no way 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but 2018 has such a large lead over 2017 that even a few embarrassing losses won’t put a serious dent into it’s advantage.
The Nun is the latest installment in the Conjuring franchise, although I think it is the first chronologically. Its reviews are mixed with a Tomatometer Score of just 43% positive at the moment and an average score of 4.9 out of 10. That’s not the worst in the franchise, but it is closer to the bottom than the top. On the other hand, the buzz is strong and many think the film will be the fastest opening installment in the franchise. Pie-in-the-sky, it could reach $50 million over the weekend. Even if it misses expectations and barely hits $40 million, it will still dominate the box office. Amazingly, this will be the fifth week in a row that a Warner Bros. film has earned top spot. This rarely happens and it is even more special, because the studio will earn this streak with three different films.
It looks like Crazy Rich Asians will earn second place over the weekend, although I suspect Peppermint will top it on the Friday chart, before it climbs into second place on Saturday. Look for about $14 million over the weekend giving it four-week total of $137 million. If the film does earn second place, then it will be the fourth weekend in a row where Warner Bros. has had the top two films at the box office. That’s beyond impressive.
Peppermint stars Jennifer Garner as a woman whose husband and daughter are killed in a drive-by shooting. When she can’t get justice, she becomes a vigilante. The reviews are just 25% positive with most critics complaining about a predictable script filled with clichés. Jennifer Garner’s box office drawing power isn’t great at the moment and her last action film, Elektra, not only came out a decade ago, but it bombed as well. I don’t think this one will bomb, but third place with $13 million isn’t exactly a hit either. It likely didn’t cost a lot to make, so this should be enough to break even, eventually.
The Meg should land in fourth place with close to $6 million over the weekend.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout should spend its final weekend in the top five with about $4 million. There’s a chance it will get knocked out of the top five by Searching, which is expanding to 2,000 theaters, or by God Bless the Broken Road, which is opening semi-wide.
God Bless the Broken Road is the latest faith-based film to open semi-wide. The genre is off its peak as far as box office power is concerned and several recent examples have bombed. The film’s early reviews suggest this one won’t have the mainstream appeal needed to break the losing streak, while its opening theater count is just over 1,200, suggesting a lack of faith by the studio, Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures. There is a chance this film will open below the Mendoza Line with around $2 million and even its high-end prediction is barely more than $4 million.
- The Nun Comparisons
- Peppermint Comparisons
- God Bless the Broken Road Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, God Bless the Broken Road, The Nun, Crazy Rich Asians, Searching, Peppermint, The Conjuring, Jennifer Garner