Weekend estimates: Raya stays top with good second-week hold

March 14th, 2021

A solid second-week performance will be enough to keep Raya and the Last Dragon at the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Its strength contributed to unusually large declines for the movies competing with it for family audiences, but generally it looks as though this weekend will continue the modest growth trend in the theatrical market. More...

Weekend estimates: Raya tops the chart with $8.6 million

March 7th, 2021

Raya and the Last Dragon will top the box office chart on its debut weekend with about $8.6 million according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection. While that’s 13% below our model’s $9.87 million prediction, and well behind the $14.11 million earned by Tom and Jerry last weekend, it’s a decent performance for the pandemic era, and some of the other results this weekend point towards a market that’s inching back towards recovery. More...

Weekend predictions: The Little Things should easily win the weekend

January 29th, 2021

This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.

It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.

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Weekend estimates: Marksman stays top

January 24th, 2021

The Marksman will remain at the top of the box office chart this weekend with a decent 35% decline from its opening according to Open Road’s Sunday morning projection. The Croods: A New Age will fall just 9% from last weekend to finish second. Wonder Woman 1984 (which our model forecast would regain top spot) is set to fall 38% this weekend to $1.6 million for a total of $37.7 million to date. More...

Weekend predictions: Marksman and Wonder Woman do battle for top spot

January 22nd, 2021

The box office race is overshadowed this weekend by a barrage of release date changes precipitated by the continued terrible situation with the pandemic across North America and a growing acceptance that movie theaters won’t all be open and operating under normal conditions for quite a while. The first domino to fall was No Time to Die, which has moved from April 2 to October 8. Our release schedule changes page has the gory details of all the changes announced by studios in the aftermath. The consensus seems to be that major releases definitely won’t be viable as theatrical-only releases until late April or early May, and the big guns are mostly settling in to the October through December timeframe. It might be a while before we see a tentpole come to theaters that isn’t also being quickly or simultaneously released for the home market, either on a streaming platform or as a PVOD release.

All that adds up to long theatrical runs by default for the films currently at the top of the box office chart. Here’s what our model thinks of them this weekend.

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Weekend estimates: Marksman topples Wonder Woman

January 17th, 2021

The Marksman will win the battle at the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The action thriller is projected to earn $3.225 million over the three-day part of the weekend, and Open Road expects it to add another $480,000 tomorrow for a four-day opening of $3,705,000. Its debut is comfortably ahead of our Friday prediction, but a little behind Honest Thief, which earned $3.6 million over its three-day opening weekend back in October. The decline is most likely a reflection of the worsening pandemic conditions over the past few months, but Open Road shared some interesting demographic details that shed more light on how the market is evolving at the moment. More...

Weekend predictions: Marksman and Wonder Woman in head-to-head battle

January 15th, 2021

MLK Weekend could have a close race at the box office as new release The Marksman goes head-to-head with Wonder Woman 1984. Our model thinks Wonder Woman has the edge, but it’s likely to be a close-run thing. Liam Neeson has an impeccable pedigree when it comes to action thrillers—this isn’t even his first outing in such a film during the pandemic—and Honest Thief beat expectations with a $3.6-million opening weekend back in October. Here’s what the model thinks about Marksman…

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January preview: 2021 starts with the quietest month since July

January 5th, 2021

There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.

The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January… More...