April 12th, 2018
-1-News.jpg)
Rampage is the biggest new release of the week and at one time it was widely assumed it would be the biggest hit of the month. Granted, this changed the second Infinity War moved up to an April release. However, now the film likely won’t even be the second biggest hit of the month, as A Quiet Place dominated last weekend. Truth or Dare has to deal with direct competition and that’s going to kill it. Finally, Isle of Dogs is expanding semi-wide. It likely won’t reach the top five, but it is already doing well for a limited release. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious opened with nearly $100 million. That’s about what the top four will earn this year. I can’t imagine 2018 coming ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
More...
March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
More...
March 3rd, 2018
-3-News.jpg)
The Independent Spirit Awards were handed out tonight, and Get Out was the big winner, sort of. It earned two Awards, including the two most prestigious, awards. However, it wasn’t the only film to pick up two awards tonight.
More...
March 1st, 2018
March will begin the same way February ended, with Black Panther on top of the box office. The two new releases, Red Sparrow and Death Wish, might not make as much over the full weekend as Black Panther will earn on Friday. This weekend last year, Logan opened with $88.41 million, while Get Out held on better than expected with $28.24 million. There’s little chance 2018 will be able to beat that at the top, so 2018’s winning streak might come to an end.
More...
March 1st, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. It is actually competitive this year with two films in a tight race, while there is a long shot with a shot.
More...
March 1st, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director, which I think is a more competitive category than most people think it will be.
More...
February 27th, 2018
-2-News.jpg)
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive, which is the first time I’ve been able to say that so far this year. In fact, there are three nominees that have a reasonable shot at winning.
More...
February 22nd, 2018
-2-News.jpg)
Three wide releases are attempting to take on Black Panther at the box office; none will be successful. Game Night is the widest release of the week and its reviews are amazing. Annihilation is barely opening in 2,000 theaters, but its reviews are even better. Then there’s Every Day, which is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. All three new releases combined won’t earn half as much as Black Panther will earn this weekend, so the real competition for the returning box office champ is this weekend last year. Get Out debuted with $33.38 million, while the total box office was $123.61 million. Black Panther won’t get to $123.61 million, but it should do well enough to keep 2018 significantly ahead of 2017.
More...
February 22nd, 2018
-1-News.jpg)
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. As with every other acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
More...
February 11th, 2018
The Writers Guild of America have announced their winners. There are many categories that WGA hand out awards in, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of winners include a couple of major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises.
More...
February 4th, 2018
The Directors Guild of America Awards were handed out this weekend and two of the three categories could be good omens come Oscar night. To be more accurate, it sets up an interesting two-way race on Oscar night.
More...
January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
More...
January 20th, 2018
The Producers Guild of America awards were handed out last night. There are only three theatrical awards, plus a special award previously announced, and none of the results were truly surprising. In fact, two of them were completely predictable.
More...
January 11th, 2018
Directors Guild of America is one of those awards groups that spread out their nominations, but the last of them were announced today. There are some pleasant surprises and what is possibly the biggest shock of Awards Season so far. The only film to earn two nominations was Get Out.
More...
January 11th, 2018
The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
More...
January 7th, 2018
The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night.
More...
January 5th, 2018
-2-News.jpg)
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
More...
January 4th, 2018
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group to announce award nominees. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards for, but only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, and not a lot of surprises. The Big Sick, Lady Bird, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, The Shape of Water… We've seen almost all of these films appear on lists of nominations before.
More...
December 13th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
More...
December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
More...
November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
More...
November 22nd, 2017
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced yesterday and thus the 2017 Awards Season begins. The movie with the most nominations is Call Me by Your Name, which opens on Friday. This is amazingly good timing. It’s not the only film that should get a financial boost.
More...
May 25th, 2017
-1-News.jpg)
Dangal became the first Indian film to have its biggest single market not be India. It earned first place in China with $34.22 million over the weekend for totals of $113.55 million in China, $185.6 million internationally, and $198.0 million worldwide. It will shortly become the second Indian film to earn more than $200 million worldwide.
More...
May 24th, 2017
-1-News.jpg)
It is a great week on the home market with two monster hits coming out: Logan and Get Out. However, both have previously been named Pick of the Week. Fortunately there was one other release in competition for Pick of the Week, My Life as a Zucchini on Blu-ray. Thank goodness this film comes out this week. Otherwise, John Wick: Chapter Two would have become the third Video on Demand release in a row to win Pick of the Week.
More...
May 23rd, 2017
Get Out is inarguably the biggest surprise hit of the year. It earned over $200 million worldwide on just a $5 million budget. It also earned 100% positive reviews. (Armond White doesn’t count, because he’s not a real critic. Roger Ebert himself called Armond White a Troll.) Does the film live up to its success? Is it even medically possible for it to live up to its success?
More...
May 10th, 2017
It’s not a good week for top-notch releases. Fifty Shades Darker is the biggest new DVD / Blu-ray release of the week, but it is far from the best. Get Out is clearly the best new release on this week’s list, but while it is the Pick of the Week, it is only coming out on Video on Demand and I would wait for the Blu-ray. Meanwhile we have another Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release. Those are usually rare, but we’ve have a streak of them recently. This week it’s The Void, which is great, but only coming out on DVD.
More...
March 31st, 2017
Ghost in the Shell led the way on Thursday night with $1.8 million in advance earnings. This was better than the $1.2 million The Boss Baby managed, and on par with what Get Out’s $1.8 million earlier this year. However, Get Out had legs that most movies would kill for, so it is not a good predictor. John Wick: Chapter Two, which started out with $2.2 million on Thursday night, is arguably a much better comparison. Granted, John Wick earned much better reviews, but it was also a sequel and those tend to be a lot more front-loaded. Using this film as a guide gives Ghost in the Shell a $25 million opening weekend, which is well below our prediction. This isn’t a disaster, but it is a weak start for a film that cost $110 million to make.
More...
March 21st, 2017
-6-News.jpg)
Beauty and the Beast was expected to break records during its opening weekend, but its final tally of $174.75 million is still impressive, even compared to the expectations. The rest of the box office wasn’t hurt as badly as one would predict given the explosive hit at the top and that helped the overall box office grow by 59% to $261 million. This is almost double what it was this weekend last year. More importantly, this was enough to put 2017 in the lead in the year-over-year comparison. At the end of the weekend, 2017 had earned $2.39 billion, compared to $2.30 billion for 2016. Granted, this is partially due to a misalignment of monster hits, as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened the following weekend last year. That said, I really don’t think 2017 will fall behind given its current $95 million lead.
More...
March 17th, 2017
-2-News.jpg)
Beauty and the Beast was always expected to be the biggest hit of the month. Now the prevailing wisdom has the film becoming the biggest March opening of all time. Even if it doesn’t match the high end of expectations, it is widely expected to earn more than the entire box office did this weekend last year. On the downside, The Belko Experiment isn’t expected to open in the top five, in fact, it could miss the Mendoza Line. Furthermore, holdovers like Kong: Skull Island and Logan will take a beating at the box office. Overall, the news looks great and 2017 should actually get ahead of 2016 for the first time all year.
More...
March 14th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island dominated the box office earning $61.03 million over the weekend. This is much better than predicted and this if reports are true, this is because it was a huge hit with families. Skull Island’s success hurt Logan, which fell to second place with $38.11 million over the weekend. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend, but that’s still 22% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is even more impressive. Back-to-back wins for 2017 has cut 2016’s lead to 0.8% at just $17 million. If Beauty and the Beast does as well as some expect it to do, 2017 could take the lead by the end of this coming weekend.
More...
March 12th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island is reigning over movie theaters this weekend, with Warner Bros. predicting a $61 million opening for the monster movie. This is a franchise that’s been rebooted so many times that it’s meaningful to compare this outing’s opening with previous incarnations. And I’m pleased to report that this is the best ever weekend for a reboot of a King Kong movie, topping King Kong’s $50.1 million, and King Kong’s $7 million. The bad news is that this outing doesn’t look so great when adjusted for inflation. The 2005 King Kong opened with an inflation-adjusted $65 million, and the 1933 original went on to make an inflation-adjusted $366 million at the box office… a number that’s a very distant prospect this time. In fact, once adjusted for inflation, this will probably be the lowest-grossing film to start a King Kong franchise, and the only one to miss $200 million at the domestic box office.
More...
March 11th, 2017
Friday was a great day for Kong: Skull Island, as it pulled in $20.2 million. This is better than predicted and certainly better than its Thursday previews would indicate. It could be a sign of long legs in theaters. On the one hand, the film’s reviews are 78% positive, which is good for a special effects driven blockbuster like this, but not amazing. Additionally, its CinemaScore was only a B plus. That’s not bad, but it is also not great. It is right on the border between hurting and helping a film’s legs. It would take a serious collapse on Saturday for Skull Island to miss $50 million over the weekend, while more than $55 million is a real possibility. Let’s go with $53 million.
More...
March 9th, 2017
There’s only one new release this week, Kong: Skull Island, which should earn first place on the box office chart. Probably. Logan isn’t too far back as far as box office tracking and might repeat in first place. In order to do this, Logan would either have to hold on a lot better than most comic book movies do and / or Kong would have to miss expectations. This weekend last year, there were four wide releases; however, they only managed a little more than $35 million combined. Kong: Skull Island should top that with ease and that’s good news for 2017. Unfortunately, Zootopia earned more than $50 million and that will likely be out of reach for Kong, so 2017 will need to rely on its depth to win in the year-over-year competition. I’m optimistic that will happen.
More...
March 7th, 2017
-7-News.jpg)
The weekend belonged to Logan, as it opened with $88.41 million and easily earned first place. Second place went to Get Out, which held on far better than anticipated, while The Shack is on pace to become a midlevel hit. There was almost nothing but good news. Almost. Overall, the box office rose 53% from last weekend, earning $189 million. More importantly, the it was 16% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016; however, that gap was nearly cut in half from its peak just a couple of weeks ago. 2017 is now behind by 2.7% at $1.92 billion to $1.97 billion. If 2017 can put together a few more weeks like this, then it could climb into the lead before April begins. That is a big “if” and I would be satisfied with cutting the gap in half by the end of the month.
More...
March 5th, 2017
-6-News.jpg)
Logan is turning out to be everything Fox hoped for this weekend, with excellent reviews and a massive $85.3 million opening to kick off the Spring box office season. The film’s debut is a notable $20 million ahead of X-Men: Apocalypse’s $65.8 million last Summer. The only way to make it look anything less than stellar is to match it up against giants like Deadpool (which opened with $132 million in February last year), and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which holds the March weekend record of $166 million.
More...
March 4th, 2017
-5-News.jpg)
Logan started off with $33 million on Friday. This is a little lower than predictions / previews suggested, but is still the fourth-biggest opening day in March. The film’s reviews are 94% positive, and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it could bounce back over the weekend, but at this moment, an $80 million opening weekend is more likely than $85 million. This would still be the fourth-best opening weekend in March, but it will be very close and any further weakness will give Oz The Great and Powerful the edge on that chart.
More...
March 2nd, 2017
-3-News.jpg)
The first weekend of March has three wide releases, but the one everyone is talking about is Logan. It should become the biggest hit of the year so far. The other two releases are The Shack, a faith-based film, and Before I Fall, which is essentially Groundhog Day set in high school. Neither film is expected to compete for top spot. In fact, it would be a surprise if both landed in the top five. As far as holdovers are concerned, only Get Out has a shot at $20 million, while only The Lego Batman Movie will earn more than $10 million. This weekend last year, Zootopia led the way with just over $75 million, while the other two new releases earned less than $30 million combined. 2017 will be bigger on top, won’t have as strong new releases overall, but should have about the same depth.
More...
March 2nd, 2017
-1-News.jpg)
The winners of our Straight Outta Suburbia contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Get Out’s opening weekend were...
More...
March 1st, 2017
My Life as a Zucchini topped the per theater chart with an average of $14,529 in two theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Get Out, which earned an average of $12,002.
More...
February 28th, 2017
Get Out beat expectations on the weekend box office chart earning first place with $33.38 million. Not only did it beat expectations, but it also had better than expected legs over the weekend and that bodes well for its long term success. Neither of the other two wide releases, Collide and Rock Dog, earned a spot in the top ten. Both will disappear from theaters A.S.A.P. Overall, the box office fell 17% from last weekend to $123 million. It is, however, 9.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Meanwhile, 2017 remains $100 million behind last year’s pace at $1.69 billion to $1.79 billion. 2017 made gains over the weekend, but The Lego Batman Movie was the number one movie during the midweek and having a kids movie on top hurts the weekday box office numbers.
More...
February 26th, 2017
-6-News.jpg)
If you took a bet a year ago that the Oscar weekend box office would be dominated by a movie with an A- CinemaScore, and a score of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, you probably wouldn’t get great odds. If you’d included the stipulation that the film would be a horror movie written and directed by Jordan Peele, your winnings would set you up for retirement. For that is what we have this morning: Get Out will easily top the chart this weekend, with Universal estimating a weekend around $30.5 million.
More...
February 25th, 2017
-5-News.jpg)
As expected, Get Out earned first place on the Friday box office chart with $10.8 million. This a little higher than originally predicted, but not quite up to the heights that seemed possible after Thursday’s $1.8 million in previews. The film’s Tomatometer Score remains 100% positive, although I did see that Armond White gave the film a negative review. I didn’t realize he still wrote reviews. His reputation is so bad that a negative review from him is something to cherish. Furthermore, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is stunning for a horror film. Even a B plus is great for a horror film. Look for $28 million over the weekend and an easy first place finish.
More...
February 24th, 2017
Get Out opened with $1.8 million during its midnight previews. This isn’t the best previews we’ve seen this year, but it is near the top. For example, it is just 10% lower than Split managed in January and only three other films topped $2 million during previews. The film’s 100% positive reviews should certainly help the film’s legs over the weekend and that’s great news for the studio. In fact, there are some who think it will earn more than $35 million over the weekend. That’s a little too bullish for my tastes, but I can’t entirely dismiss those predictions. Opening with just over $30 million, on the other hand, now feels more likely. Since the film only cost $5 million to make, it could earn more over the opening weekend than it cost to make and advertise.
More...
February 23rd, 2017
There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close.
More...
February 23rd, 2017
The winners of our Be Prepared to Fight contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fist Fight’s opening weekend were...
More...
February 17th, 2017
Surprisingly, there are three wide releases next week. I wasn’t expecting both Collide and Rock Dog to debut in more than 2,000 theaters, but that appears to be the case. That said, Get Out is widely expected to be the biggest of these three releases and as such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Get Out.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
More...
January 10th, 2017
Horror movie written and directed by Jordan Peele opens February 24 ... Full Movie Details.
More...
.jpg)