This weekend sees another bevy of wide releases come to theaters, but only one that has its sights set on the top three. That film is Here, a cinematic reunion for Robert Zemeckis, Tom Hanks, and Robin Wright. Unfortunately, things aren’t looking that great for Here, with a spot in the top three not assured and Venom: The Last Dance not going to be troubled in its second weekend in theaters, even with a sharp decline.
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Although The Wild Robot began last weekend as the widest release, newcomer Smile 2 took the top spot at the weekend box office, compiling just over $23 million, and surpassing the former by $13 million in its first three days. Unfortunately for the sequel, it will fall short of a repeat, as Venom: The Last Dance waltzes into cinemas this weekend.
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It’s a really bad week on the home market. Granted, there are three wide releases on this week’s list, which is better than most weeks. However, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is the biggest and the best of these three releases. That’s not a good sign. There are not even a lot of smaller releases to make up for the weakness at the top.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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Wreck-It-Ralph's opening was on the very high end of expectations, which was a pleasant surprise over the weekend. Also, Flight beat all but the most bullish predictions. Even The Man with the Iron Fists did a little better than expected. Overall, the box office soared 49% from last weekend to $138 million. It was also higher compared to this weekend last year by a very impressive 21%. November certainly got off to a great start. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by just under 4.0% at $8.89 billion to $8.55 billion. After a couple weak months, the box office has shown great strength and it would take a disastrous collapse for 2012 to not come out ahead.
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Wreck-It Ralph is breathing new life into the box office this weekend, after a few slow weeks, and with some help from an impressive opening for Flight this weekend will be a healthy 20% or so ahead of last year. Disney is projecting that Ralph will open with $49.1 million, which is a very creditable performance, if well behind the openings of The Incredibles and Monsters, Inc., both of which were released on the equivalent weekend in years gone by. The Pixar brand still counts for a lot, evidently. Flight's $25.01 million projection is well ahead of expectations (take a bow Denzel Washington and Robert Zemeckis), and has strong enough reviews to have good chances of legs into the Holiday Season.
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There's only one truly wide release this week, Wreck-It-Ralph, but it is opening in more than 3,700 theaters and with reviews that match its pre-release buzz. There are also two films opening in a little under 2,000 theaters, Flight and The Man with the Iron Fists, but both are earning good reviews and could have some impact at the box office by earning places in the top five. Last year the box office was led by Puss in Boots with $33.05 million during its sophomore stint. I think Wreck-It-Ralph will easily top that. The new releases were Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas, which combined pulled in $36.98 million. I really doubt Flight and Iron Fists will do the same. So unless Wreck-It-Ralph has close to a $50 million opening, November will start off on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison.
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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