January 15th, 2013
Catching up on the home market, we see that the top of the November 18th DVD chart was dominated by new releases, with three of them in the top five. This includes Brave with a very impressive opening of 2.16 million units / $34.51 million. This was enough to place in the top ten for 2012, and it has already climbed several more spots.
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January 9th, 2013
There were quite a few new releases to chart on the November 18th edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. In fact, there were five in the top ten. Leading the way was Brave with 1.16 million units and $23.97 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 35%, which is lower than expected. Granted, it is a kids movie, but it is a 3D animated kids movie.
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November 13th, 2012
New releases this week are dominated by one title, Brave. The second best selling title according to Amazon.com is Lawrence of Arabia, which is a film that should be in everyone's collection, but as a catalog title, it likely won't sell a huge number of units. The third best selling title according to Amazon.com is Duck Dynasty: Season One. That's not a good sign. Fortunately, Brave is clearly Pick of the Week material with the Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack battling for that honor.
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August 6th, 2012
As I've mentioned before, for a film to repeat at the top of the box office, it generally just needs to earn a massive opening and to avoid a big fall during its sophomore stint. However, for a film to earn first place at the box office three times in a row, it needs help from weak new releases. This is certainly the case with The Dark Knight Rises. Granted, it did hold on better than expected this weekend, but the two new releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, were so far behind that The Dark Knight Rises would have won with ease, even if it just missed expectations. The weakness in the new releases resulted in the overall box office falling 8.5% from last week to just $123 million. More importantly, this was 27% lower than the same weekend last year. 2012 is still head of 2011's pace, but the margin has been reduced to just 4.2% at $6.80 billion to $6.53 billion. If things don't turn around soon, 2012 might relinquish its lead before the end of the year.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises should have a relatively easy time earning first place this weekend, but the new releases are stronger than last week. There are some that think Total Recall will earn first place, but there are also some who think it won't open with as much as the original opened with, despite more than 20 years of inflation and a change in the business that favors bigger opening weekends. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days is playing counter-programming and while there's not a lot of direct competition in theaters, it is still aiming for a midlevel hit, and no more. Last year, Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened with more than $54 million and there's really no chance that will be replicated this weekend and August will very likely start out on a losing note.
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August 1st, 2012
The winners of our Watch Out contest were determined and they are...
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July 30th, 2012
That was a pretty bad week. The Dark Knight Rises fell faster than most people were expecting while The Watch flopped. Step Up Revolution came very close to matching expectations, but it was expected to struggle, so that's not saying much. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last week to $134 million, which was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. The swings we've seen at the box office are erratic, to be polite, but at least 2012 remains ahead of 2011, even if the margin shrunk to 5.5% at $6.61 billion to $6.27 billion.
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July 29th, 2012
Weak openings from The Watch and Step Up Revolution will give The Dark Knight Rises an easy win at the box office this weekend. The superhero actioner will fall about 60% according to Warner Bros.' Sunday estimate.
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July 26th, 2012
There's little doubt that The Dark Knight Rises will repeat as the box office champion this weekend. There are some questions regarding how much it will dominate the box office. Will it continue to match The Dark Knight's pace? Will it show the same legs as The Avengers did earlier this summer? Or will it collapse like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II did? There are also a few, very few, asking questions about The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Both films are opening wide, but neither film looks like it will be able to get anywhere beyond a midlevel hit and they are very unlikely to match last year's two wide releases, Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs. Fortunately, The Dark Knight Rises should earn enough to ensure a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 20th, 2012
There are two wide releases coming out next week, The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Nearly everyone is assuming The Dark Knight Rises will be the biggest film over the weekend, but we need a new release to be the the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, and The Watch has the best shot for second place. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Watch.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Private Romeo on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Private Romeo on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2012
June was not a good month. Of the twelve films that opened wide last month, only four beat expectations by any serious margin, while there were seven that we know will fail to match expectations and one that's too close to call. That's a really bad record. Granted, 2012 still has a huge advantage over 2011, but it did shrink over the month of June. Looking forward to July, we get mixed signals. On the one hand, last July there were two monster hits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which I'm considering a July film even though it opened on June 29th, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. Those two films combined earned more than $700 million. This time around the only guaranteed monster hit is The Dark Knight Rises and I don't think there are many analysts bullish enough to think it will make $700 million by itself. That's not to say analysts aren't bullish on the film's chances. Some think it will top The Avengers at the box office. If it fails to reach $500 million, it would be seen as a disappointment. On the other hand, last year there were four other films that topped $100 million, while this year there are only six other films, period, and only two of those, The Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age: Continental Drift, are sure things to hit $100 million. There is a chance The Dark Knight Rises will earn more than the rest of the wide releases earn combined. And if this movie bombs, there's little hope for the rest of the month. But that won't happen, right?
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