January 30th, 2020
The big winter releases are starting to come out, but the overall quantity of releases is still rather soft. Terminator: Dark Fate is the biggest release of the week, but it isn’t the best. As for the best, it was a close two-way race between Fail Safe and Parasite, with the latter winning by the tiniest of margins.
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January 29th, 2020
The first Terminator movie was a relatively low-budget horror movie where the unstoppable killer was a Sci-fi robot instead of some supernatural force. Its sequel was the most expensive movie at the time and a pure action film with cutting edge special effects. What they had in common were stellar reviews and massive profit margins. Unfortunately, the films rapidly got worse in terms of reviews and when it came to box office returns. Terminator: Dark Fate had the worst financial performance in the franchise. Is it also the worst movie? Or were moviegoers unwilling to see it, because they were burned too many times in the past?
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January 3rd, 2020
The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry.
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November 27th, 2019
Frozen II dominated the international box office the way few films manage, earning $228.2 million in 37 markets for a worldwide debut of $358.2 million. This includes a $54.38 million debut in China, which is more than the second place film earned on the worldwide chart. In fact, the movie earned more in South Korea with a total opening of $32.31 million on 2,648 screens, including $28.10 million over the weekend than the second place film on the worldwide chart earned. In the U.K., it pulled in $19.36 million in 671 theaters, while it also cracked $10 million in both Germany ($14.9 million) and France ($13.4 million). Furthermore, the film has yet to open in Italy, Russia, Australia, and Brazil, so it isn’t done yet and should remain on top of the chart for a few weeks.
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November 14th, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate will lose money. That is almost guaranteed at this point. However, it did manage to top its production budget at the worldwide box office in just its third weekend of release, meaning it is going to save face, mostly. The film earned $29.9 million in 53 markets over the weekend for totals of $150.9 million internationally and $199.4 million worldwide. This includes a $6.0 million opening in Japan; however, the film opened on Friday and not Saturday, which is the usual opening day in that market. That was still enough for first place over the two-day weekend and more than it made here, given the relative size of the two markets. It also opened in first place in Taiwan with $1.1 million over the three-day weekend and $1.4 million including Thursday. The film’s biggest market remains China, where the film earned $7.21 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $45.85 million.
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November 12th, 2019
It was a weekend to forget with the four new releases earning significantly less than The Grinch opened with last year. Still, the four new releases took the to four spots, meaning there were no powerful holdovers to make up the difference. Midway was the best of the bunch, while Playing with Fire was the biggest positive surprise. Unfortunately, Doctor Sleep missed expectations by a larger margin than those two films beat our predictions, so the good news was drowned out by the bad. Overall, the box office was 5.9% higher than last weekend at $121 million. This is not a reason to celebrate, as last weekend was arguably Halloween weekend, which is one of the worst weekends of the year. More importantly, the weekend was behind the same weekend last year by 28%. 2019 is now behind 2018’s pace by 5.9% or $580 million at $9.32 billion to $9.90 billion. However, and this is important, as bad as 2019 has been doing, we are still ahead of 2017’s pace, both in terms of raw dollars and ticket sales, so there’s no need to panic. While we would prefer to set records every year, being the second best year at the box office is still worth celebrating.
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November 10th, 2019
Midway wasn’t supposed to be a major hit, and it won’t be, but, sadly for all the other new films, it is opening in first place at the box office. In fact, its weekend estimate is $17.49 million, which is less than 10% above our prediction, but it was able to earn first place with relative ease. The film only managed mixed reviews, but it did earn an A-rating from CinemaScore. Additionally, there are holidays coming up, so it could have surprisingly long legs. The film also opened in China with $4.48 million. It’s hard to use this result as a guide for other markets, as there haven’t been enough American-centric war movies released in China to compare against.
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November 9th, 2019
Midway made a surprisingly strong debut to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $6.34 million. Its reviews have improved and are currently 40% positive. Granted, this isn’t great, or even merely good, but it is also not so bad that it will be a major drag at the box office. Furthermore, the film scored a solid A-rating from CinemaScore, indicating its target audience loved the movie, especially compared to critics. Add in a more mature target audience and the film should have solid legs, helping it earn close to $18 million during its opening weekend. Granted, the film cost $50 million to make, so it will still need help internationally and on the home market to break even after a start like this, but this is still much better than most people were expecting.
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November 7th, 2019
It is not a banner week for stellar new releases. Doctor Sleep is earning good reviews, but not great reviews. Sadly, it is award-worthy compared to most of the other new releases. Last Christmas is earning mixed reviews, but that’s to be expected for a romantic comedy. The less said about Midway or Playing with Fire’s reviews, the better. This weekend last year, The Grinch opened with $67 million, which is likely more than all four new films will open with this year. In fact, last year’s number two film, Bohemian Rhapsody, will likely earn more than any one film will earn this year. 2019 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year competition.
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November 6th, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate cracked the $100 million mark worldwide during its first weekend. $101.9 million to be more precise, giving it an early total of $123.6 million so far. Sadly, this is just $72.9 million internationally in 48 markets and that’s just not enough given the film’s production budget. Its biggest market was China, where it opened in second place with $26.84 million over the weekend for a total opening of $28.58 million. The film debuted in first place in South Korea with $7.19 million on 1,315 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $9.79 million. Had the movie merely cost $100 million, then I would be a lot more happy with this result, but the movie cost a lot more than that and needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even any time soon. I just don’t see that happening.
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November 5th, 2019
It was a bad weekend at the box office, with Terminator: Dark Fate missing expectations by a significant degree. Harriet was able to beat expectations, but it wasn’t enough to truly compensate. Furthermore, Arctic Dogs and Motherless Brooklyn were practically non-factors at the box office. The box office did grow 9.5% from last weekend reaching $115 million. More importantly, this was 21% lower than this weekend last year. 2019’s deficit grew to 5.6% or $540 million and is now behind 2018’s pace by $9.15 billion to $9.70 billion. It is important to point out that while 2019 is being crushed by 2018, it is still on pace to be the second largest box office of all time, while its ticket sales are better than 2017’s pace, so as disappointing as the year as been so far, there are still reasons to celebrate.
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November 3rd, 2019
As expected, Terminator: Dark Fate is going to open in first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it is failing to match even the low end of expectations with an estimate of $29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not great, but they are better than this opening. The film is doing much better internationally with an estimated $$72.9 million debut, including an estimated $30 million opening in China. However, that’s not enough. The film needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even and since the only major market left to debut in is Japan, it’s not going to get there.
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November 2nd, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate opened in first place on Friday, but it only made $10.6 million, well below expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are good, but not great, meaning it won’t have the legs needed to overcome this slow start. Look for about $28 million domestically this weekend. Early reports have it performing better internationally with a likely $30 million debut in China, but again, this is below expectations and not enough given the film’s $185 million production budget.
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November 1st, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate managed $2.35 million from its previews on Thursday. Normally, this wouldn’t be enough to kick-start a strong weekend, but yesterday was Halloween, which is far from a normal day at the box office. Furthermore, its reviews are better than most of the rest of the Terminator franchise, and good enough to have decent legs. It is still too early to tell where it will finish its opening weekend. Halloween is just too big a wildcard to make an accurate guess at this point. We will know more this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come out.
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November 1st, 2019
Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year.
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October 31st, 2019
It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition.
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October 30th, 2019
Better Days opened in first place in China with $86.11 million, which was also enough to give it first place internationally. This is an amazing start, all things considered. The movie was supposed to open in June, but the Chinese censors yanked the film at the last minute, then announced a new release day less than a week before the film opened. It is a minor miracle it was able to do this well.
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August 30th, 2019
Sci-fi action movie starring Mackenzie Davis, Linda Hamilton, and Arnold Schwarzenegger opens November 1 ... Full Movie Details.
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May 23rd, 2019
Sci-fi action movie starring Mackenzie Davis, Linda Hamilton, and Arnold Schwarzenegger opens November 1 ... Full Movie Details.
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