November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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October 25th, 2017
There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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October 23rd, 2017
It was a terrible summer at the box office, but Spider-Man: Homecoming was one of the few bright spots. It was one of three films to cross $300 million domestically and has a slim shot at finishing in the top five for the year. Does it deserve this success? Or did it thrive just because it’s part of the MCU?
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October 18th, 2017
It is one of those weeks. There’s a massive release coming out, which has scared away nearly all of the competition, so it is a really shallow week. Fortunately, that huge release is Spider-Man: Homecoming, which is not only one of the biggest hits of the year, it is also one of the reviewed. It isn’t the only contender for Pick of the Week, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack wins that honor.
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September 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight is the biggest release of the week and it has scared away a lot of the competition, but it’s garbage and should be avoided. There are no big releases that are pick of the week contenders, but some smaller ones fit the bill, including David Lynch: The Art Life: The Criterion Collection, HYOUKA: Part Two, and Shameless: The Complete Seventh Season. All are amazing and worth checking out, but none have many extras, so it is up to the role of the dice to determine the Pick of the Week. ... And it’s HYOUKA.
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September 21st, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes returned to the top of the chart earning $62.9 million in 21 markets for totals of $287.9 million internationally and $433.8 worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $59.66 million over the weekend for a total opening of $61.07 million.
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September 14th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming returned to the international top five earning first place with $71.82 million on 21,675 screens in 47 markets for totals of $495.74 million internationally and $823.43 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $69.12 million on 20,440 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $70.63 million. This is already the biggest single market for the film, overtaking South Korea, where it has earned $51.51 million. At this point, the film will have no trouble getting to $900 million worldwide, but $1 billion is out of reach.
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September 3rd, 2017
This weekend is somewhat uncharted territory for the movie industry, with no new releases rolling out in over 1,000 theaters and no dominant film already playing. Fortunately, the result is looking like a glass that is at least half full. Thanks in part to the holiday weekend, and the start of recovery from Hurricane Harvey, several returning films improved their box office from last weekend, and the number one film, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, will remain flat from its last outing, with $10.25 million expected by Lionsgate, and a total around $55 million by the end of the day on Sunday.
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August 15th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation’s opening saved summer for one week, but that’s the practically the only good news we have to talk about this weekend. The film pulled in $35.01 million, which is over three times its nearest competition. That’s the bad news. The depth this past weekend was terrible, as there were only two films with more than $10 million, compared to five films last weekend. The overall box office fell 4.6% to just $117 million. Worse still, this is 32% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by $360 million or 4.9% at $7.07 billion to $7.43 billion. The year has lost over $500 million compared to last year’s pace during summer alone. This is a disaster.
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August 1st, 2017
Summer is coming to a close, as the two new releases, The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde had okay openings over the weekend. Dunkirk was able to earn first place with $26.61 million, which is great news for that movie, but bad news for the overall box office, as it is the worst result for a number one film since April. Overall, the box office fell 20% from last week to $144 million. This is 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by 1.7% or $120 million at $6.70 billion to $6.82 billion.
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July 27th, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 27th, 2017
Dunkirk debuted in first place on the international chart with $55.4 million in 46 markets for a worldwide debut of $105.9 million. Its biggest opening was in the U.K., no surprise there, where it earned $13.00 million in 638 theaters. Strangely, South Korea wasn’t far behind with $8.75 million on 1,245 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.40 million. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in France with $4.9 million. This isn’t a bad opening, but I was expecting more. Overall, it is doing about as well as Christopher Nolan’s previous film, Interstellar. If Dunkirk can merely match that movie's worldwide figure, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. Even if it doesn’t quite manage that total, anything above $500 million worldwide will produce a healthy profit for the studio.
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July 25th, 2017
Both Dunkirk and Girls Trip topped expectations earning $50.51 million and $31.20 million respectively. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets didn’t do as well, but it should do well internationally. Overall, the weekend box office rose 11% from last weekend earning $181 million. On the downside, this was 7.8% lower than the same weekend last year and 2017 had already lost its lead over 2016, so this is really bad news. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by $31 million / 0.5% at $6.46 billion to $6.49 billion. Things really need to turn around soon, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully the fall will be much better.
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July 22nd, 2017
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Dunkirk dominated the Friday box office chart. Okay, maybe dominate is too strong a word, but more on that down below. The film earned a better than anticipated opening day of $19.8 million. Additionally, its reviews are award-worthy, while it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Frankly, given its reviews, I’m surprised it only got an A minus. With its $5.5 million in previews, I was expecting an opening day a little north of $20 million, so hopefully this isn’t a sign of short legs. Look for an opening weekend of $55 million. On a side note, the reason we are not using Dunkirk images is we only got two of them and we’ve already used them both, twice. I tried to find the French site to see if they had more images (This is what I did for Kong: Skull Island.) but I ended up on the Dunkirk tourist site by accident and now all of the ads I see on YouTube are in French.
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July 20th, 2017
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So far this summer, box office is running about $200 million behind last year’s pace. The numbers have fallen so far that, year to date, 2017 is now behind 2016’s box office pace. This is even more depressing as last weekend, five of the top six films earned Tomatometer Scores that were over 90% positive. This week, we are continuing the amazing run with critics as two of the three wide releases are earning 90% positive reviews or better, but it doesn’t look like we will be able to improve our box office woes. This weekend last year, Star Trek Beyond opened with nearly $60 million and four other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, Dunkirk will open in first place and it might top Star Trek Beyond, but that seems unlikely. Even getting to $50 million could be asking too much. Girls Trip should have a box office run somewhere between Rough Night and Bad Moms. ... Yes, I know that’s a lot of wiggle room, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here. Finally there’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which cost $180 million to make but is earning almost no buzz here. (It should do a lot better internationally.) We would have to have all three new releases beat expectations and have solid holdovers for 2017 to come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 19th, 2017
I thought last week was close, but this week was even closer. In fact, according to Sunday’s estimates, Spider-Man: Homecoming was the top film on the international chart, but Monday’s final numbers had Despicable Me 3 in first place. That film earned $72.7 million in 61 markets for totals of $434.00 million internationally and $622.39 million worldwide. Its biggest opening came in Indonesia, where it earned $3.5 million on 230 screens. Meanwhile, the film is now the second biggest animated film at the Chinese box office. This past weekend, Despicable Me 3 earned $22.09 million on 8,057 screens for a two-week total of $115.16 million. The film opens in Japan and South Korea before the end of the month, as well as Italy and a few other smaller markets by the end of August.
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July 18th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on the weekend box office chart and the theater average chart with $13,989. The only other new release to come close to that was Lady Macbeth with an average of $12,907 in five theaters. Last week’s winner, Spider-Man: Homecoming, slipped to third place this weekend with an average of $10,167. It is still quite rare for a wide release to stay in the $10,000 club two weeks in a row, so this is a reason to celebrate.
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July 18th, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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July 16th, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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July 15th, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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July 13th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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July 12th, 2017
The winners of our Bring Home a Prize contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Spider-Man: Homecoming’s opening weekend were...
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July 11th, 2017
There was a really close race on the theater chart this week with Spider-Man: Homecoming topping A Ghost Story $26,915 to $26,008. The only other film to top $10,000 was The Big Sick, which earned an average of $10,971 in 326 theaters.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 9th, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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July 8th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, I’m going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sony’s second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last year’s number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU.
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July 7th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming needed to make more than Wonder Woman during its previews in order to match it at the box office. Wonder Woman’s audience was disproportionately female, especially more mature women. This demographic tends to help a film’s legs at the expense of its opening weekend. So if Homecoming only made a little more than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman made, it would fail to crack $100 million over the weekend. Fortunately, it crushed that figure with $15.4 million on Thursday night. This is the third-best figure for previews this year, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the better comparison, as the audiences for the two films match up nearly perfectly. If Homecoming does match Guardians’ legs, then it will earn just over $130 million over the weekend. I think the fact that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie and third incarnation of the character in 15 years will hurt its legs a little bit, but $125 million is the new goal to aim for. The only downside here is behind-the-scenes, as the character is being shared by Sony and Disney and I’m not sure how long they can work together.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 6th, 2017
The winners of our Me Me Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Despicable Me 3’s opening weekend were...
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 2nd, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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June 29th, 2017
Next weekend, Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opening wide, therefore it is the only possible choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Spider-Man: Homecoming.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV-on-DVD releases, or a full season TV-on-DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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May 24th, 2017
Super hero adventure starring Tom Holland, Michael Keaton, and Robert Downey, Jr. opens July 7 ... Full Movie Details.
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