August 20th, 2018
It’s a good week on the home market as we not only have a monster hit that is worth being a Pick of the Week contender, Deadpool 2, we have a wide selection of other contenders. This includes a limited release, First Reformed; an Anime title,Sakura Quest: Part Two; as well as a TV on DVD release, Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three. In the end, I went with Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three, but it was a close race.
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August 8th, 2018
It is a deceptively busy week on the home market, and not in a good way. There’s no one big release, at least not on DVD / Blu-ray, but there’s a sea of mediocrity this week. I’m not talking about quality here, but sales rank. There are a lot of films that wouldn’t even be filler during a normal week, but this week are selling well enough to be mentioned. There are several that are worth picking up, including limited releases like Bye Bye Germany and Revenge, classics like The Changeling, and even some Anime titles like Big Fish & Begonia or Tsuredure Children. Deadpool 2 is by far the biggest release of the week and I suspect the Blu-ray will be the Pick of the Week when it comes out, but I don’t want to give it that title until than. As a result, there’s no real winner this week. There were a lot that came close.
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June 7th, 2018
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Ocean’s 8 leads a trio of new releases this week and it might be the only one to reach the top five. It is certainly the only one competing for first place. Hereditary is earning amazing reviews, but it is an art house horror movie and those tend to struggle at the box office. Finally there’s Hotel Artemis, which is earning the quietest buzz of the three releases. Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should remain strong helping the overall box office. However, while this year’s new releases are better than last year’s new releases, with Wonder Woman’s sophomore stint, 2018 is going to suffer another loss. Next week will be better.
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May 30th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is off its peak and its been a while since it was breaking records regularly. (Half of the top ten three-day and four-day records are a decade old or older.) That didn’t change this year, as Solo: A Star Wars Story missed expectations with $84.42 million / $103.02 million during its opening weekend. You can’t even claim it missed expectations because Deadpool 2 stole its thunder, as that film also fell faster than anticipated. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend down to $182 million. This is still 29% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. If you include Monday, the weekend pulled in $226 million, which is about 27% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 8.3% / $370 million lead over 2017 at $4.79 billion to $4.42 billion. That lead will shrink in the next couple of weeks, but overall, 2018 is looking really healthy.
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May 24th, 2018
Memorial Day long weekend is usually a great weekend to open a big release. However, this year, Solo: A Star Wars Story is the wide release of the weekend. It will obviously open in first place, but how will it compare to the recent releases in the Star Wars franchise? Deadpool 2 will have no trouble earning second place and could by the end of the weekend be in the black. (It depends heavily on how much it cost to advertise, but I think its combined budget is around $200 million.) The only other film expected to make a dent at the box office is Avengers: Infinity War, which has already earned $600 million domestically. This weekend last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opened in first place with $62.98 million / $78.48 million. There are some who think Solo will double that. I’m not that bullish, but I do think Solo will lead 2018 to an easy win in the year-over-year competition.
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May 22nd, 2018
Deadpool 2 didn’t live up to expectations at the box office, but you can’t really complain about a $125.51 million opening weekend. The other new releases were Book Club, which did acceptable business, while the less said about Show Dogs’ debut the better. Overall, the box office rose 51% from last weekend earning $209 million. This is 69% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of $290 million or 7.0% at $4.49 billion to $4.20 billion. Because Infinity War opened a week earlier than usual, it has been hard to compare the overall box office, but now it is safe to say 2018 has a sizable lead over 2017, one that should grow next weekend as well.
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May 20th, 2018
Deadpool 2 broke records during its previews and stumbled a little on Friday, before finishing the weekend with an estimated $125 million. That’s still a fantastic result, more than the $110 million it reportedly cost to make, and more than the total box office earned this weekend last year. That said, it is way below the $150 million many thought it would earn after the preview numbers were announced. This isn’t as good as Deadpool’s opening weekend; however, that film benefited from Valentine’s day landing on Sunday, while this film will get some help next weekend, as it is Memorial Day long weekend. Furthermore, both films earned nearly identical reviews and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so this film's legs should be decent. We will have a better idea where it will end up next weekend.
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May 19th, 2018
Deadpool 2 dominated the box office chart on Friday earning $53.3 million. However this is weaker than expected after it broke the record for previews by an R-rated film. After the film crushed that record, it looked like it would earn $150 million during its opening weekend. However, after earning $53.3 million on Friday, it looks like it won’t even match the original Deadpool’s opening weekend haul of $132.43 million. Granted, it should be close with $132 million and this is still a fantastic start, but it could be a bad omen for its legs. On the other hand, the film’s reviews are more than 80% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. We won’t know if the reviews and word-of-mouth will overtake the Fanboy Effect until the weekend estimates arrive tomorrow helping the film top its predecessor, but it is usually safe to bet on the Fanboy Effect.
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May 18th, 2018
Deadpool 2 got off to a record-breaking start on Thursday earning $18.6 million during its previews. This is the best previews for an R-rated film, topping It’s previous record of $13.5 million by a truly massive margin. The film’s reviews are excellent for a blockbuster and the film is now on track for $150 million, which was the very high end of expectations.
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May 17th, 2018
May gets its first monster hit, as Deadpool 2 debuts in theaters this weekend. The film is earning impressive reviews and was widely expected to top the original's opening weekend. Neither of the two other new releases are expected to compete for first place, or even second place, as Avengers: Infinity War has that locked down. Book Club should open in third place with more than $10 million, but that’s not a guarantee. Meanwhile, Show Dogs’ buzz is so quiet that I’m have trouble coming up with a prediction. This weekend last year, Alien: Covenant opened in first place, but with only $36.16 million. If Deadpool 2 doesn’t top that opening night, then I will be shocked. In fact, Deadpool 2 should earn more by itself than the total box office from this weekend last year.
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May 1st, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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