July 4th, 2012
There were four new releases to reach the top ten on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, but none of them were able to unseat Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. That film remained in first place with 444,000 units / $11.08 million for the week lifting its totals to 1.90 million units / $44.59 million after two.
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July 4th, 2012
None of the new releases were able to overtake Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows for top spot on the DVD sales chart. It repeated in first place with 497,000 units / $7.44 million for the week giving it totals of 1.75 million units / $26.14 million after two. It is already the fifth best selling DVD released in 2012.
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June 27th, 2012
It was a nearly record-breaking week on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, which is very strange for this time of year. Granted, we had the last of the winter blockbusters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, leading the new releases, but it was still better than expected. That film sold 1.77 million units generating $40.71 million for a for an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%.
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June 26th, 2012
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows dominated the new releases and easily took top spot on top of the DVD sales chart this week. It sold 1.52 million units and generated $22.71 million in revenue, which is substantially more than its predecessor made during its opening week, despite selling fewer tickets while in theaters. It's hard to explain that.
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June 20th, 2012
New releases dominated the Blu-ray sales chart just as much as it did the DVD sales chart. Two Blu-rays, John Carter and Act of Valor topped the list. John Carter led the way in terms of units with 965,000 units / $19.30 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just shy of 60%. The film is still going to lose money, but its high definition run should at least cut the loses a bit.
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June 18th, 2012
New releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week earning the top five spots. They also placed five more DVDs in the top twenty. Act of Valor led the way with 703,000 units / $11.94 million, which is a surprisingly strong start.
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June 13th, 2012
True Blood: Season Four led all new releases and earned top spot on the Blu-ray sales chart. During its first week of release, it sold 369,000 units and generated $12.93 million in revenue. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 34%, which is low for the format as a whole, but very strong for a TV on DVD release.
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June 5th, 2012
While summer is usually the slowest time of the year on the home market, this week is fantastic with a lot of prime releases, including first-run, TV on DVD releases, classics and limited releases. Unfortunately, the largest single category is, "Screener is Late". You will see that phrase countless times on this list. (Perhaps it's because last week was a short week due to Memorial Day.) It is especially hard to select a Pick of the Week, because I don't like handing out that title when the screener is late. There are a few likely candidates, including Burn Notice: The Complete Fifth Season, Yellow Submarine on Blu-ray, but I went with Tomboy on DVD.
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June 4th, 2012
Expectations for Safe House were relatively high, given its release date. Denzel Washington is a proven box office draw, while Ryan Reynolds has the potential to be an A-lister. However, very few people predicted this film would earn $126.18 million at the box office. We are nearly halfway through the year and the film is still in the top five for 2012. Is it as strong as the film's box office numbers would indicate? Or was it just good compared to the average February release?
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March 7th, 2012
It was a slow week on the international chart with only three films that topped $10 million. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island was the best, earning $15.7 million on 6,381 screens in 52 markets for a total of 185.6 million internationally and $270.8 million worldwide. It has now topped the original worldwide as well as internationally. The film opened in Germany with a mediocre total of $1.68 million on 424 screens. However, it is already a success, so the studio shouldn't complain about that result. The film has yet to open in Japan, but when it does, it should be above $300 million worldwide.
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March 5th, 2012
Nearly everyone expected Doctor Seuss' The Lorax to top the box office chart this weekend, but very few people saw it doing this well. It opened so well that The Hunger Games could have trouble topping it for biggest hit of the month. The overall box office rose to $168 million, which was 26% above last week's pace, as well as the same weekend last year. And here I was worried the streak might end. Year-to-date, 2012 has now pulled in $1.82 million, which is 19% higher than last year's pace. Hopefully this winning streak will continue, and it will if The Lorax has strong legs.
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March 2nd, 2012
March begins with two wide releases, although there's no real suspense which one will lead the way at the box office. Doctor Seuss' The Lorax should have no trouble earning first place. The real question is whether or not it will top Rango, which opened with $38 million last year. Not everyone is convinced it will. The only other wide release is Project X, which has a range of expectations going from the low teens to the mid-twenties. If both films land in the high end of expectations, then 2012 should continue its winning streak, as this year has slightly better depth than last year.
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February 29th, 2012
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance rose to first place with $21.44 million on 4,889 screens in 28 markets for a two-week total of $45.74 million. This week it opened in a trio of major markets, starting with Russia where it debuted in first place with $8.18 million on 913 screens. By comparison, Ghost Rider made $7.77 million in total in that market, so this is a great start. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany with $2.32 million on 428, which is roughly on par with its predecessor's opening. But it only managed third place in Spain with $1.16 million on 439. By comparison, the film made $3.12 million during its opening there. Mixed results make it difficult to predict the film's final box office number, but I think it is safe to say there won't be a Ghost Rider 3 any time soon.
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February 28th, 2012
There was a surprise winner at the box office this weekend as Act of Valor opened on the very high end of expectations while Good Deeds did the opposite. Overall, more films missed expectations than met them and this led to a 14% drop-off from last week. However, the total haul of $134 million was still 23% higher than the same weekend last year, which stretches the winning streak to eight weeks. Or to put it another way, every single weekend this year has been higher than the corresponding weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of last year's pace by 18% at $1.62 billion to $1.38 billion. There is some bad news going forward, as I don't think March 2012 is as strong as March 2011.
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February 23rd, 2012
While this weekend is one of the most important weekends of the year for movies, it's not because of the films in theaters. Oscar weekend is generally not a good time to release a film, as a lot of fans will be distracted. To emphasize that, there are four films opening wide this weekend, but three of them are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters. Expectations for most films are in the mid teens, or lower, and there's a chance that no film will come close to $20 million over the weekend. Obviously this is not good news; however, this weekend last year was a disaster as Hall Pass led the way with just $13.54 million. There's a chance that every film in the top five will earn more than that this year. Granted, that's on the optimistic side of expectations, but even the low end of expectations has 2012 continuing its streak.
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February 21st, 2012
Two of the three wide releases missed expectations and the best of the bunch, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, only managed third place over the weekend. However, the overall box office still pulled out a win in the year-over-year comparison. The box office did fall 19% from last weekend to $156 million, but this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is much more important. The lead over last year grew to over $200 million at $1.46 billion to $1.23 billion, or 18%. Granted, it is still too early to celebrate, but so far the year-over-year numbers are fantastic while next weekend it looks even better.
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February 19th, 2012
A tight battle is brewing for box office honors this weekend, based on the studios' Sunday estimates. Safe House is currently ahead, with Universal predicting a $24 million 3-day weekend. The Vow runs in second place with $23.6 million according to Sony, which also has Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in third place with $22 million. Adding to the uncertainty, the most family-friendly film in the top ten, Journey 2: Mysterious Island is only a few million back, with Warner Bros. projecting it will make $20.1 million through Sunday. Overall, it looks as though Safe House will win both the 3-day and 4-day races, although Journey 2 could win Monday.
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February 16th, 2012
We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win.
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February 15th, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island climbed into first place with $30.0 million on 8,580 screens in 30 markets for a total of $79.20 million. To put this into perspective, its predecessor made $140 million in total, which is a figure this film could match, even if it didn't have any additional markets left to open in. Its biggest opening this weekend was in China where it earned $9.5 million, while it was also a big hit in Russia with $6.97 million on 1,021 screens. The film debuts in France and Spain this weekend, and has yet to open in Italy, Germany, Japan, and other markets.
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February 15th, 2012
The winners of our Early Oscar Glory contest were determined and they are...
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February 14th, 2012
Chico and Rita started its run on top of the per theater chart with $21,400 in one theater. Given its reviews and its Oscar nomination, it should have no trouble expanding at least somewhat. The overall number one film, The Vow, was in second place on the per theater chart with an average of $13,929. Safe House was close behind with $12,880. It's not too common for wide releases to earn more than $10,000 on the per theater chart at this time of year, so to have two of them do so on the same weekend is doubly impressive. The final film in the $10,000 club was Rampart with an average of $12,089. Like Chico and Rita it should expand for similar reasons. (I.E. Strong reviews and major nominations.)
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February 13th, 2012
Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic.
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February 12th, 2012
The industry's good start to 2012 gained some more momentum this weekend as all four new releases performed at or beyond expectations. The Vow will lead the way, based on Sony's projection, with $41.7 million, which is a little less than 2010's Valentine's Day, although that film had the advantage of both Valentine's Day itself, and a four-day weekend. Safe House will open with around $39.3 million for Universal, which will be the studio's best opening since Fast Five in April of last year. Journey 2: Mysterious Island is set for $27.55 million, according to Warner Bros., and Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace will pick up $23 million or so for Fox. That foursome will ensure a record is set this weekend: for the first time, four films will open with over $20 million on a non-holiday weekend.
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February 9th, 2012
2012 has beaten 2011 every single weekend so far and we could see that streak survive at least one more weekend thanks to three wide releases: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, and The Vow, plus a re-release, Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace. That's a crowded slate and normally I would assume one or more of the films would be squeezed out at the box office, but now I'm not so sure, as even the weakest amongst them is tracking for close to $20 million. By comparison, this weekend last year three films earned more than $25 million and only one new release failed to connect with audiences. So it could be a tough race, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
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February 3rd, 2012
The widest release of next week is Journey 2: The Mysterious Island; however, I think Safe House will have the biggest opening weekend of the four wide releases / re-releases. As such, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. Meanwhile, since our Oscar Prediction contest begins next week, this week's prizes are two films that battled for Oscar glory in the past. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Safe House.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Annie Hall on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Manhattan of Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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