This graph shows Denzel Washington’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The question this weekend is not which film will win, but whether The Equalizer 3 will have the best opening weekend for an Equalizer film. The bar is set at $36 million, which was how much The Equalizer 2 managed back in 2018. Our model thinks the franchise capper could top that figure, although it doesn’t look like it will do so by much. With the likes of Barbie, Gran Turismo and Blue Beetle fading, there won’t be much competition for top spot.
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It will be one week and done for Blue Beetle as the widest release as this weekend’s only new wide release makes its way into theaters and to the top of the list in the form of the third installment of The Equalizer franchise. While Blue Beetle pulled in a solid $12 million in its second weekend, it was stymied by newcomer Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story, along with the continued success of worldwide phenom, Barbie, which took the first and second place prize respectively at the box office.
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Since giving up his life as a government assassin, Robert McCall has struggled to reconcile the horrific things he’s done in the past and finds a strange solace in serving justice on behalf of the oppressed. Finding himself surprisingly at home in Southern Italy, he discovers his new friends are under the control of local crime bosses. As events turn deadly, McCall knows what he has to do: become his friends’ protector by taking on the mafia.
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While holding steady from its opening count of 3,871 theaters, Blue Beetle becomes the latest film to become the widest release in its sophomore frame, partially due to Barbie finally dropping below the 4,000-theater mark after spending four of its five weeks as the most widely-available film in North America. Blue Beetle topped last weekend’s box office with just over $25 million and currently holds a six-day domestic total of $32.19 million. This week, however, brings on a slew of fresh films ready to challenge Blue Beetle and Barbie for the box office crown.
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As the Christmas holiday approaches, there are plenty of options for movie-goers. The only question is what to watch? Spider-Man: No Way Home opened last Friday and took nearly everyone by surprise as it posted an opening domestic weekend of $260 million, placing itself between 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War as the second-biggest opening of all time. The film is currently showing in 4,336 locations, which makes it the 30th-widest opening of all time, just behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. Spider-Man: No Way Home might not be challenged at the box office, but there are still a wide array of films for every interest.
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Although it will fall a little short of our weekend prediction, The Little Things will post a respectable-under-the-circumstances $4.8 million this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. If there wasn’t a pandemic going on, that would translate into something like a $21 million debut—in line with previous outings for Denzel Washington in action films and thrillers, such as Unstoppable ($22.7 million opening) and The Taking of Pelham 123 ($23.4 million opening), although behind the more recent The Equalizer, which started out with $34 million. It gives The Little Things bragging rights to the best opening of 2021, which everyone in the industry will be praying is a title it won’t hold for very long.
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This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.
The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January…
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. As with every other acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
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The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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I think it will be a bad week at the box office for new limited releases. Mudbound is the best film on this week’s list, but it is playing on Netflix, so it will likely go no where at the box office. Sadly, there’s no other film that can take advantage of the lack of competition.
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This month we’re introducing a new Bankability Index that estimates how much someone is worth to a film based on analysis of the Hollywood Creative Graph™, a network of over 130,000 people with over 6 million connections that represent all the films they have worked on together. By using an analytical technique called graph analysis, the Bankability Index measures the influence of each person in the Hollywood Creative Graph, which we translate into an estimate of the average value added per movie by everyone. Here on The Numbers, we will now publish each month the top 50 people on a per-movie basis, and subscriptions are available for our full report, which contains information on the top 250 people in the business.
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There are a few Oscar-nominated films on this week’s list. However, it was still hard to come up with a Pick of the Week release. Most of them were like Elle with great reviews and weak extras. The DVD for Drunk History: Season Four has more than two hours of extras, but I admit it is an acquired taste. Fortunately, we do have a clear winner: The Love Witch on Blu-ray.
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Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This year’s award nominations have been dominated by La La Land, and it is expected to pick up the most Oscars tonight, with Best Picture among them. It has already equalled the record for most nominations, with 14, but it’s not favored to equal or set the record for most wins, with our poll suggesting it will pick up nine awards. Read on for details of our poll.
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actor, which is a three-way race this year. This makes it one of the most competitive categories we will be talking about.
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The Screen Actors Guild were handed out tonight and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. There was no one big winner. Hidden Figures won the most prestigious category, but Fences was the only film with multiple wins.
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The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story scared away most wide releases and limited releases. That’s not to say there is nothing on this week’s list worth checking out. In fact, Fences was bumped up a week before its wide expansion on Christmas day. That is the only film on this list likely to have any presence at the box office.
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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Is it time to panic? Not yet, but we are definitely getting concerned. The overall box office was soft due to the weaker than expected openings of The Magnificent Seven and Storks. Neither bombed exactly, but they weren’t particular strong either. The overall box office rose 16% from last weekend, but was down 25% from this weekend last year. Ouch. You usually only see that large a change in the year-over-year comparison when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 dropped to 6.3% or $490 million at $8.35 billion to $7.86 billion.
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The Magnificent Seven will almost exactly match Sully’s debut two weeks ago by posting a $35 million opening, according to Sony’s Sunday projection. To us, it looks as though the film will fall fractionally short of that number, but it should still have the sixth-best September opening of all time (not adjusted for inflation). Those two films alone have given the box office enough of a boost that the industry will wrap up the month in fairly healthy condition.
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The Friday box office was not particularly good, as The Magnificent Seven led the way with just $12.7 million. This isn’t terrible. In fact, it is nearly the record for biggest opening day in September for a non-sequel. (Sweet Home Alabama still holds that record.) However, this is far below the nearly $20 million a lot were expecting. There are some positive signs going forward. The film’s reviews are good and it did earn an A- from CinemaScore, so that should help its legs. Likewise, Denzel Washington’s films do tend to have long legs. A $35 million opening weekend is likely on the cards and that could be enough to get to the century mark domestically. I’m not saying $100 million is likely, but I also wouldn’t bet against it.
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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Christmas day is the single biggest gift-giving day of the year... so it makes total sense that the week after Christmas is a terrible week to release any new DVDs or Blu-rays. The week is better than you would expect with a few notable releases, including The Equalizer, which earned just over $100 million during its theatrical run. It is also one of the best releases on this week's list and with solid extras, the Blu-ray is a contender for Pick of the Week. The other two contenders are Banshee: Season 2 on DVD or Blu-ray and Shameless: Season 4 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. It was a bit of a coin toss, but in the end I went with Shameless.
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The Equalizer easily won the race for the top of the box office chart this weekend earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Those next two films were The Maze Runner and The Boxtrolls, both of which exceeded expectations, albeit by tiny margins. The strength of these three films helped the overall box office reach $106 million, which is 4% higher than last weekend. On the other hand, this was 2% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.51 billion, which is a massive amount when you look at it without context. However, it is nearly $400 million or 4.9% lower than last year's pace, which is also a massive amount. It is technically possible for 2014 to catch up to 2013 before the end of the year, but only if October is a really strong month at the box office. It won't be.
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The Equalizer and The Boxtrolls opens wide this week. They are an action film and a family flick and the last weekend of September has been kind to both genres. The Equalizer could become the fastest opening film of the month, which might be enough to get it all the way to $100 million during its entire run. The Boxtrolls, on the other hand, is a Stop-motion animated film, which rarely rises above the midlevel hit. This weekend last year, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opened with $34.02 million, which is right in the middle of the expected range for The Equalizer, plus the depth is better this year, so 2014 should win the year-over-year competition.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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There were four films that opened wide last week and while none of them were monster hits, three of the four of them were solid openings. Elysium opened in first place, but landed on the lower end of expectations. We're the Millers was a bit of a surprise hit, earning more over five days than it cost to make. Disney's Planes had the best opening for an animated film in August. There's not a lot of competition for that record. Finally there was Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, which will cost the studio a fortune. With four new releases taking the top four spots, it should be no surprise that the overall box office was strong. In fact, it rose 16% from last weekend to $159 million. No film was able to match last year's winner, The Bourne Legacy, but we had a lot better depth this time around. This helped 2013 win the year-over-year comparison by 12%. Meanwhile, 2013 has completed the comeback and now has a 3.6% lead over 2012 at $6.85 billion to $6.61 billion.
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The Dog Days of summer have begun; in fact, they began last weekend. There are four films trying to find an audience that is distracted with other concerns like back-to-school, or the last family outing before back-to-school, etc. Will any of the films find an audience? Elysium has the best chance. It is earning the best reviews of the week. We're the Millers opened on Wednesday and did quite well, earning first place, but it's far from a monster hit. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters cost $90 million to make, but barely topped The Smurfs 2's Wednesday opening from last week. That's not a good sign. Finally there's Disney's Planes, a film that started production as a direct-to-DVD film and the reviews reflect that. The Bourne Legacy opened this week last year with $38.14 million, which is something Elysium might match.
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August begins with two films, 2 Guns and The Smurfs 2, one action film and one kids movie. Neither film is likely going to break records, but I think 2 Guns should at least do well enough to be a financial success, eventually. The Smurfs 2 probably won't be a hit here, but its international numbers are looking a lot better. Like this year, this weekend last year there were two wide releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, one action film and one kids movie. This year's new releases should easily trump last year's new releases; however, last year the box office was led by The Dark Knight Rises, which will keep the year-over-year comparison a little closer.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. This category is not truly competitive, but I'm supporting an underdog.
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It's not a bad week as far as first run releases go with three of them appearing high on the chart. This includes Flight, which has earned some major nominations during Awards Season. However, it is a shallow week, as there are also Direct-to-DVD kids releases and even a workout DVD in the top ten, according to Amazon.com. Leading the way is Peter Pan on Blu-ray Combo Pack or Blu-ray Combo Pack with Storybook App. This is not only the best-selling Blu-ray of the week, but it is also the best and is the Pick of the Week.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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Wreck-It Ralph is breathing new life into the box office this weekend, after a few slow weeks, and with some help from an impressive opening for Flight this weekend will be a healthy 20% or so ahead of last year. Disney is projecting that Ralph will open with $49.1 million, which is a very creditable performance, if well behind the openings of The Incredibles and Monsters, Inc., both of which were released on the equivalent weekend in years gone by. The Pixar brand still counts for a lot, evidently. Flight's $25.01 million projection is well ahead of expectations (take a bow Denzel Washington and Robert Zemeckis), and has strong enough reviews to have good chances of legs into the Holiday Season.
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There's only one truly wide release this week, Wreck-It-Ralph, but it is opening in more than 3,700 theaters and with reviews that match its pre-release buzz. There are also two films opening in a little under 2,000 theaters, Flight and The Man with the Iron Fists, but both are earning good reviews and could have some impact at the box office by earning places in the top five. Last year the box office was led by Puss in Boots with $33.05 million during its sophomore stint. I think Wreck-It-Ralph will easily top that. The new releases were Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas, which combined pulled in $36.98 million. I really doubt Flight and Iron Fists will do the same. So unless Wreck-It-Ralph has close to a $50 million opening, November will start off on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison.
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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