February 27th, 2017
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Oscar night turned out to be... interesting at the end. “Interesting” as in “May you live in interesting times.” The big winner of the night was chaos, as there was a mistake with the Best Picture category. (On a side note, I really hope this ends the conspiracy theory that Marisa Tomei didn’t earn her Oscar. Some think her name was announced by accident and they didn’t bother to correct the mistake. They would have obviously corrected the mistake.) On a serious note, Moonlight’s win is amazing. It has likely the lowest budget of the nine Best Picture Nominees and at the moment the lowest box office. That could change with its three wins last night. Additionally, all three wins came from high prestige categories, compared to just two for La La Land. However, La La Land won six Oscars overall, two high prestige, both music categories, and two technical awards, so it too could be seen as the big winner of the night.
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February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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February 26th, 2017
The Independent Spirit Awards winners were handed out last night. While they are rarely a good predictor for the Oscars, Moonlight’s performance was so dominant that its chances of winning Oscars have ticked up a couple of percentage points.
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February 24th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the final category: Best Picture. It is not a competitive category with an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then rest have maybe a combined 2% chance of winning.
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February 23rd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director. It is not a particularly competitive category with a favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 22nd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. At one time, La La Land looked to be the favorite, but that no longer seems to be the case.
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February 21st, 2017
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Did you know Oscars are being handed out next week? If you didn’t already know that, you would be able to figure that out, as there are five major Oscar nominees on this week’s list. Two of those, Jackie and Moana, are VOD releases, so that limits the choices for Pick of the Week. In fact, only Manchester by the Sea was a contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately for that film, I got to the review for Doctor Strange a week early and I’m awarding it the Pick of the Week this week. It is out on VOD right now, but I would wait a week for the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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February 16th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actor, which is a three-way race this year. This makes it one of the most competitive categories we will be talking about.
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February 15th, 2017
Kedi became the first movie released in 2017 to hit the $40,000 mark on the per theater chart earning $40,103 in its lone theater. A United Kingdom was next with an average of $16,628 in four theaters. This is enough to suggest it will expand, but not enough to think it will earn a significant measure of mainstream success. The only other two films in the $10,000 club were the top two films on the overall weekend chart. The Lego Batman Movie earned an average of $12,966, putting it just ahead of Fifty Shades Darker, which earned an average of $12,563.
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February 15th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Supporting Actor. Unlike a lot of other categories, this one could be a real race. We’ve had three previous awards ceremonies and three different winners, one of whom didn’t even get an Oscar nomination. I do have a personal favorite, but I fear my judgment is clouded as a result.
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February 15th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Supporting Roles categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, we have one overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 12th, 2017
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were very few surprises to talk about. La La Land again won the most awards with five, while only two other films, Lion and Manchester by the Sea, earned more than one award. They each won two.
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February 7th, 2017
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The winter releases are starting to come out on the home market. Trolls is the biggest such release, but it isn’t the best. It isn’t bad either, but it’s for kids and not adult fans of animation. As for the best, there are a quartet of contenders for Pick of the Week; Loving, The Eagle Huntress, Little Sister, and Two Lovers and a Bear. All four are must haves, while Loving’s Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Two Lovers and a Bear’s DVD is the Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release.
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January 31st, 2017
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There was only one film the $10,000 club this past weekend, The Salesman, which earned an average of $23,693 in three theaters.
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January 29th, 2017
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An impressive decline of 34% in its second weekend and a crop of middling to poor performances by new releases will be enough to keep Split safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend. With Universal projecting $26.3 million for the weekend as of Sunday morning, Split is well ahead of the studio’s new release, A Dog’s Purpose, which will come in with around $18.4 million. Split will finish the weekend with around $78 million in total.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 18th, 2017
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Despite earning 50% positive reviews, Worlds Apart topped the theater average chart with $16,353 in its one theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was 20th Century Women, which spent its third week there with an average of $10,894 in 29 theaters.
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January 12th, 2017
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The last of the Directors Guild of America nominations were announced and the Oscars are really shaping up to be a one-movie show. That movie is Deadpool. I’m joking of course, but it did get yet another nomination. At this point, it could earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised. The film that is dominating Awards Season is La La Land and frankly I’ve lost count of the number of nominations it has received.
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January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 10th, 2017
The theater average chart was dominated by holdovers, as is the norm this time of year. The top film was Patriots Day with an average of $14,972 in seven theaters. This bodes very well for its wide expansion next weekend. 20th Century Women is becoming a sleeper hit earning an average of $13,047 in ten theaters. This is one of those films that should be earning more Awards Season buzz, but I fear it has slipped between the cracks. Toni Erdmann and Paterson were neck-and-neck with averages of $10,472 and $10,205 respectively.
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January 8th, 2017
The first major awards night was Sunday with the Golden Globes being handed out. La La Land led the way with seven wins, winning in every category it was nominated in. This is great news for its Oscar chances, but there’s already backlash building.
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January 4th, 2017
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group nominees to be announced. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, like Hidden Figures, but there are also some surprises.
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January 4th, 2017
Hidden Figures rose to first place during its first full weekend of release with an average of $34,329 in 25 theaters. It already has more than $2 million and it expands wide on Friday. 20th Century Women was next with an average of $27,800 in four theaters. It isn’t a major player during Awards Season, but it is picking up enough nominations to help it stick around in theaters. Patriots Day was down just 8% earning an average of $21,117 in seven theaters. Last week’s winner, Silence, fell to an average of $20,827 in four theaters. If it has a similar drop next week, it will put its wide release in jeopardy. The best limited release of the week was Paterson, which earned an average of $17,334 in four theaters. Toni Erdmann earned an average of $14,000 in three theaters during its first full week of release. La La Land continues to expand, but remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,738. The overall number one film, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, was next with an average of $11,934, while the second place film, Sing, was right behind with an average of $10,647.
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December 28th, 2016
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Silence scored first place on the theater average chart earning an average of $32,720 in four theaters. Patriots Day was next with an average of $23,044 in seven theaters. Most impressively, Hidden Figures earned an average of $20,620 in 25 theaters, in just one day. The final film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story with an average of $15,404.
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December 20th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $37,306. This wasn’t that far above the second place film, Fences, which earned an average of $32,366. Meanwhile, last week’s winner, La La Land, was pushed into third place with an average of $20,510.
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December 19th, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the weekend box office chart with $155.08 million. This is well over twice as much as every other release combined. It is nearly twice as much as last weekend’s total box office. This helped the box office grow by 154%, reaching $211 million. Sadly, this was over $100 million or 32% lower than the same weekend last year when The Force Awakens dominated the chart. The year-over-year decline can be best summed up as within expectations. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive amount at $10.47 billion to $9.96 billion, but that will change as we see more numbers for Rogue One come in. On a more big picture look, Disney became the first studio ever to hit $7 billion worldwide in one year. They now have the record for biggest yearly domestic box office and biggest yearly worldwide box office, while it is just $160 million away from the international record as well.
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December 17th, 2016
There’s a lot of great news coming out of Friday. For starters, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned $70.07 million. This means its previews were 41% of its opening day figure, compared to 48% for The Force Awakens. I was expecting Rogue One to bounce back a little bit from its previews, but not this much. If Rogue One merely maintains The Force Awakens’ internal multiplier, it will earn $148 million over the weekend. There are some positive factors and some negative factors. For example, not all schools are closed on Monday, so it won’t be able to hold onto its box office numbers on Sunday, at least not as well as The Force Awakens did. However, its prospects improved from the afternoon shows to the evening shows and that shows word-of-mouth is strong. This makes sense, as its reviews have settled at 84% positive and it scored an A from CinemaScore. An opening weekend of $150 million is certainly within reach; our model is predicting $151 million. Disney is predicting a more cautious $145 million to $150 million.
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December 15th, 2016
It is a deceptively busy weekend, as there are two wide releases, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Collateral Beauty, and two films that are “expanding wide”, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. However, while that looks like a lot, in reality Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the only film most people are talking about. In fact, it is going to dominate the box office to such a degree that its only real competition is The Force Awakens, which opened this weekend last year. Unfortunately for Rogue One, there’s almost no chance it will match The Force Awakens. In fact, there’s almost no chance the entire box office will match the $247.97 million The Force Awakens opened with. 2016 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. That said, 2016 has a nearly $460 million lead over 2015, so has long as Rogue One tops $100 million over the weekend, it should be enough to keep 2016 ahead in terms of raw box office numbers.
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December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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December 13th, 2016
La La Land dominated the per theater chart with an average of $176,221 in five theaters. This is not only the best of the year, it is the second best ever for a live-action film, behind just The Grand Budapest Hotel average of $202,792 in four theaters. Jackie was well back with an average of $18,933 in 26 theaters. Had La La Land not come out this weekend, this would have been big news. Now it might get lost in the crowd. Lion remained in the $10,000 club for the third weekend in a row with an average of $11,224 in 15 theaters.
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December 13th, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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December 11th, 2016
Moana will get to enjoy one last weekend at the top of the box office chart, in spite of a good debut for Office Christmas Party. Disney’s animated adventure will post about $18.8 million in its third weekend, for $145 million to date. It’s beginning to lag behind the performance of Frozen, which made $22.6 million in its third weekend in wide release, and had amassed $164.8 million. That still puts Moana well on course for $300 million domestically, although $350 million is looking like a stretch. Internationally, Moana will earn around $23.5 million this weekend, taking its total overseas to $93.8 million, and its global haul to $238.8 million.
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December 6th, 2016
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Jackie led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $55,743 in five theaters. Given this start and add in its Oscar buzz and the film has a real shot at expanding wide. Last week’s winner, Lion, fell to second place with an average of $16,651 in seven theaters. Manchester by the Sea continues its impressive run with an average of $14,592 in 156 theaters. It still has room to grow. Miss Sloane earned an average of $11,213 in four theaters. It is reportedly expanding wide this weekend, but that can mean anything from a few hundred theaters to well over 2,000. Finally, Things to Come opened with an average of $11,030 in three theaters.
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December 4th, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
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November 29th, 2016
Lion led the way on the theater average chart this week with an average of $30,840 in four theaters. Its reviews are great and it could become a sleeper hit throughout the Christmas holidays. Up next was Manchester by the Sea with an average of $25,541 in 48 theaters. It still has plenty of room to expand and its Awards Season buzz is growing. Miss Sloane opened with an average of $19,932 in three theaters. This is good, but not good enough to think it will expand truly wide. The overall number one film, Moana, was next with an average of $14,615. The final film in the $10,000 club was Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with an average of $10,880.
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November 27th, 2016
Disney’s domination of Thanksgiving weekend will continue in 2016, with Moana expected to post $55.5 million for the three-day weekend and $81.1 million in total, making it either the second-best or best Thanksgiving opener of all time, depending on what you consider an “opener.” Disney is claiming second place for Moana behind Frozen, which had a $67.4 million 3-day weekend, and $93.6 million 5-day weekend back in 2013. That film had already opened in a single theater the weekend before, so if we want to split hairs, it technically wasn’t opening that weekend. Either way you look at it, it’s a great start for Moana, and another handsome win for Disney. The studio can now claim the top six 5-day Thanksgiving debuts and and the top eight 3-day Thanksgiving openings of all time.
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November 23rd, 2016
Manchester by the Sea led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $64,125 in four theaters. That isn’t the best average we’ve seen this year, but it is fourth place for a 2016 release. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned first place on the overall chart and second place with $17,954 on this chart. Nocturnal Animals earned an average of $13,315 in 37 theaters. That’s an impressive average considering how wide it was playing. Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened earned an average of $11,745 in two theaters. Meanwhile, the re-release of Daughters of the Dust was the final film in the $10,000 club earning $10,842 in its lone theater.
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November 23rd, 2016
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last night and thus the 2016 Awards Season begins. There were a few surprises and some snubs to discuss, but for the most part, there’s not a lot nominations that broke the established narrative. It’s because there isn’t really an established narrative. This means films that earn nominations here have a much better chance of doing well going forward and Moonlight looks like it could rise up as a result.
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November 20th, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is doing everything Warner Bros. could have wished for this weekend, posting a lively $75 million opening in the US, hitting $143.3 million internationally for a global opening over $200 million, and getting a A CinemaScore that should give it positive word of mouth going into Thanksgiving. For a franchise reboot, that’s a lot of reasons to be happy, although its opening is well below the openings enjoyed by the original Harry Potter franchise. The worst of those, Chamber of Secrets, opened with $88 million over three days (Order of the Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince both technically had slower weekends than Chamber of Secrets, but both of them opened on Wednesday, and they still did over $75 million Friday–Sunday).
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November 18th, 2016
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There are few films on this week’s list, but most of them are earning good reviews. Two of them, Manchester by the Sea and Nocturnal Animals, are also earning Oscar buzz and I wouldn’t be surprised of both did very well on the per theater average chart. On the other hand, I’m interested in seeing Girls und Panzer The FILM.
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