October 14th, 2013
It's a good week on the home market with two $100 million hits coming out: The Heat and Pacific Rim. I've heard good things about both films, but unfortunately, neither screener has arrived. Also, while we have two big release on top, there's not a lot of depth and we quickly run into releases that would be filler during a normal week. At the time I started this column, no new releases for the week had arrived on time, but at least that gave me a chance to get a bit caught up on some of the previous late arrivals. This list includes two contenders for Pick of the Week: White Collar: Season Four and Modern Family: Season Four on DVD or Blu-ray. Both are must haves, but the latter won out for Pick of the Week honors.
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October 14th, 2013
The Heat had a lot of pre-release buzz and many were expecting this film to be one of the best comedies of the year. When it finally opened, its reviews were good, but not great. Its box office numbers, on the other hand, were fantastic. It opened with just shy of $40 million and stuck around long enough to reach more than $150 million domestically. Did it deserve to strike it rich at the box office? Or did it over-perform compared to its quality level?
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September 1st, 2013
Hollywood's Summer ends this weekend with a suitably back-to-school winner in the form of One Direction: This is Us. The 3D concert movie will pick up $17 million Friday-Sunday, largely on the back of an impressive $8.9 million gross on Saturday. While that won't set it up to challenge Justin Bieber or Miley Cyrus among the top grossers in this particular sub-genre, it does show the solid business model for 3D films that cater to pop fans. Performances among other films playing this weekend were more varied.
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July 28th, 2013
The Wolverine will have a very solid, but far from spectacular debut this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $55 million total will give it the tenth-biggest weekend of the year, and the best for Fox, but it is falling well behind comparable films like World War Z (which opened with $66 million) and Star Trek Into Darkness ($70 million). Good reviews and lessened competition as the Summer season comes to a close will help it a bit, but it looks like $100 million and out for the franchise, unless its $86.1 million international debut turns into a $400 million global run.
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July 15th, 2013
There were two strong new releases this week, but Despicable Me 2 remained on top, even though it fell a little faster than expected. Grown Ups 2 was further evidence that bad reviews actually help Adam Sandler movies. Finally, Pacific Rim struggled, at least compared to its massive production budget. Overall, the total box office was $194 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend. However, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a good hold. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 17% higher, which is a great result. Year-to-date, 2013 is still behind 2012, but by less than 1% at $5.81 billion to $5.86 billion. Unfortunately, next weekend 2013 will have to go against The Dark Knight Rises, so 2013 will likely lose a lot of ground.
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July 14th, 2013
A three-way battle for box office supremacy this weekend will be won by the reigning champ, Despicable Me 2, dealing a major blow to Warner Bros. potential franchise starter Pacific Rim, which will end up in 3rd place. The action movie is set to post around $38.3 million, in spite of generally good reviews and an A- CinemaScore, and will land behind Grown Ups 2, which has been panned by critics but will still gather $42.5 million. Despicable Me 2 takes the prize though, with a drop of around 46% to $44.75 million for the weekend and $229 million to date.
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July 11th, 2013
There are two wide releases coming out this week, Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim, and depending on who you talk to, either one has shot at first place. However, most agree that Despicable Me 2 will repeat as the box office champ. There is a chance all three films could top $40 million at the box office, which would be great news in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, Ice Age: Continental Drift opened with $46.63 million. That's a fine start, but I think Despicable Me 2 will top that during its sophomore stint and give 2013 a clear victory over 2012.
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July 9th, 2013
The July 4th long weekend resulted in a delay for some of the final box office numbers, but now that we have them, it was worth the wait. Despicable Me 2 scored an easy win with The Lone Ranger coming in a very, very distant second place. Fortunately, Despicable Me 2 made enough to compensate and the overall box office numbers were very strong. Over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend, $227 million was brought in. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 16% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. (Because July 4th falls on a different day each week, there's no way to compare the full holiday year-over-year.) Year-to-date, 2013 has earned $5.53 billion, which is 2.1% lower than last year's pace. It would only take a couple of solid wins for 2013 to earn the $118 million needed to catch up to 2012, but with The Dark Knight Rises looming ahead, that seems unlikely for now.
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July 4th, 2013
It's July 4th, which means it is the Independence Day long weekend, one of the busiest weekends of the year. There are two wide releases looking to compete with the holdovers for box office dollars, but it is clear that Despicable Me 2 has far more box office potential than The Lone Ranger has. Meanwhile, Kevin Hart: Let-Me-Explain should grab a spot in the top ten. Meanwhile, Monsters University, The Heat, and the rest of the holdovers should help the overall box office climb higher than last year.
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July 3rd, 2013
I'm So Excited led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $19,466 in five theaters. It should expand significantly, but it is weaker than most of Pedro Almodovar's previous films. The Heat finished in second place on the overall chart and on the per theater average chart with an average of $12,296. Monsters University was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,391.
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July 2nd, 2013
As expected, Monsters University remained the top draw on the weekend box office chart. The Heat performed a little better than expected, but White House Down struggled. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $190 million over the weekend. More importantly, this is 9% lower than the same weekend last year, meaning 2013 fell a little further behind 2012's pace. The difference is only $78 million or 1.5% at $5.18 billion to $5.26 billion, which is much better than it was earlier this year, so hopefully we can close that gap before too long.
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June 30th, 2013
As expected, Monsters University will retain the box office crown this weekend with Disney projecting a thoroughly respectable $46.2 million and a decline of 44% from its opening -- good by today's standards, and particularly good for a sequel (albeit one whose target demographic wasn't born when the original came out). The real action this weekend, though, is among the other films in the top five. The Heat will open with a robust $40 million or so, per Fox, which compares favorably to its forebear Bridesmaids' opening of $26.2 million in 2011 (although a fairer comparison might be the $41.6 million debut of The Hangover 3 in May). Three male-oriented action movies fill out the next three spots on the chart, and the competition was too much for White House Down.
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June 28th, 2013
The final weekend of June has two wide releases that should be in a very close battle at the box office. The Heat and White House Down could finish within $1 million of each other over the weekend. Unfortunately, neither one really has a shot at first place. It looks like Monsters University will have no trouble repeating as champion at the box office. Comparisons to last year are a little complicated. The new releases last year were stronger than the new releases this year; however, this year's holdovers are better. So will 2013 win in the year-over-year comparison? Not sure, but it could be really close.
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June 21st, 2013
There are two films opening wide next weekend and they could be in a really tight race for top spot. I think The Heat will beat out White House Down, but I'm not overly confident in that prediction. Even so, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Heat.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Phantom on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Phantom on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 2nd, 2013
May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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