February 24th, 2013
New releases were a bit of a mess, as Christmas Day was a Tuesday, so there were a few releases that came out the following Monday. One of those releases, Looper, led the Blu-ray sales chart during the week of January 6th with 317,000 units / $6.66 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 34%, which is lower than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
This week is a little confusing on the home market, as there are two weeks of new releases to deal with. (Because Christmas landed on a Tuesday, new releases were spread throughout the week, including some the following Monday.) One of the old new releases topped the DVD sales chart, as Looper sold 553,000 units and generated $9.71 million during its first full week on the home market. This is better than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
Given how bad the new releases were, it's no surprise none of them reached the top of the Blu-ray sales chart. (While Looper was awarded the Pick of the Week, it actually came out on the following Monday, while the sales week ends on Sunday, so the numbers will be included in next week's results.) The Dark Knight Rises returned to first place with 314,000 units / $7.65 million for the week giving it totals of 3.90 million units / $79.93 million. It is one of the best selling Blu-rays of all time and about 50% more than The Dark Knight's current running tally.
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January 29th, 2013
New releases were even weaker than expected and none of them reached the top 30 of the DVD sales chart. The top five were identical to last week with Ted earning top spot for the third weekend in a row. It sold an additional 714,000 units generating $12.44 million in sales giving it totals of 3.42 million units / $57.68 million after three weeks of releases.
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January 25th, 2013
There were plenty of new releases to chart this week, but none of them were able to top the Blu-ray sales chart. In fact, most missed the top ten. This left Ted on top for the second weekend in a row with 558,000 units / $13.93 million giving it totals of 1.86 million units / $39.92 million after two. These are amazing Blu-ray totals for a comedy.
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January 23rd, 2013
While there were a number of new releases to reach the to 30 of the DVD sales chart this week, Ted was able to remain in first place. It sold an additional 1.04 million units while generating $18.59 million, lifting its totals to 2.71 million units / $45.24 million after two weeks of release.
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January 22nd, 2013
Like it did on the DVD sales chart, Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the Blu-ray sales chart. The film earned first place with 1.28 million units / $25.64 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 43%. That's very strong for a comedy, even one aimed at the prime demographic for Blu-ray.
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January 22nd, 2013
Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the DVD sales chart. It earned first place with 1.67 million units and $26.66 million, which was better than I anticipated.
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January 20th, 2013
Batman was even more dominant on the Blu-ray sales chart than it was on the DVD sales chart with two new releases earning the top two spots. The Dark Knight Rises earned first place with 2.26 million units / $42.13 million giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 53%. Meanwhile, the Trilogy Box Set earned second place with 453,000 units / $12.68 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 58%. The combined totals are not quite as good as The Avengers' debut was, but was still a fantastic start.
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January 20th, 2013
New releases dominated the top of the December 9th edition of the DVD sales chart with four of them placing within the top six. Unsurprisingly, The Dark Knight Rises led the way with a stunning result of 2.03 million units / $26.96 million during its first week of release.
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January 17th, 2013
Men in Black 3 led all new releases earning first place on the Blu-ray sales chart with 241,000 units / $6.75 million during its opening week of release. Its Blu-ray share was just under 40%, which is low for this type of release.
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December 12th, 2012
SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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December 4th, 2012
It is an awesome week for new releases on the home market. Not only is one of the biggest hits of all time coming out, but there are a number of other releases that are Pick of the Week contenders. The Dark Knight Rises, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Finding Nemo, Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Two, My Little Pony Friendship Is Magic: Season One, Brazil, Francis Ford Coppola: 5-Film Collection - Blu-ray, and others. In the end, I went with Finding Nemo: 3D Combo Pack, but it really is an excellent week for prime releases.
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November 23rd, 2012
This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. Unlike most years, I'm only halfway done with my Christmas shopping. So what recent, and not so recent releases are prime candidates for the perfect gift this year? Over the next month, we will go over several dozen possibilities with our annual Holiday Gift Guide, which is divided into into four sections. This week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on...
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September 19th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution debuted in top spot on the international chart with $49.61 million on 6,154 screens in 65 markets. The film opened in first place in a trio of major markets with Japan pulling in $8.63 million on 774 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.17 million. Russia was close behind with $8.37 million on 1,100 screens. It was was able to grab first place in Brazil with $3.15 million on 391. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in South Korea with $1.99 million on 368 screens over the weekend and a total opening of $2.44 million. It debuted in third place in Australia with $1.50 million on 175.
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September 19th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution opened with $6.1 million on IMAX worldwide, including $3 million domestically. This is a good result, but not a great result. As for a great result, it was announced that The Dark Knight Rises surpassed $100 million worldwide on IMAX screens. Up next for the super large format is Frankenweenie on the first weekend in October. It's stop-motion animation, so I don't think it will be a monster hit, but it should do rather well.
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September 13th, 2012
The Expendables 2 opened in China and that helped propel it into first place with $41.62 million on 5,930 screens in 48 markets for an international total of $157.29 million. Unfortunately, as it is usually the case, no numbers for China were released, but were likely more than half the film's weekend haul. It also opened in South Korea earning third place with $1.58 million on 394 screens over the weekend for a total of $1.81 million.
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September 5th, 2012
Thanks to its opening in China, The Dark Knight Rises returned to the top of the international chart with $49.8 million on 10,000 screens in 64 markets. The film now has $577.7 million internationally and $1.009 billion worldwide, becoming just the twelfth film to reach that milestone. In China, the film earned $28.5 million on 4,100 screens, which was easily enough for first place. The film had to settle for second place in Italy with $4.95 million on 914 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.75 million.
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September 2nd, 2012
Labor Day weekend is traditionally the slowest holiday weekend at the box office, so it comes as no surprise that the overall chart looks fairly weak. However, Possession is set to produce a very credible box office number, with Lionsgate estimating $17.725 million through Sunday and comfortably over $20 million for the full 4-day frame. That's hardly blockbuster level, but is considerably better than consensus predictions coming in to the weekend. Another opener, Lawless, is well behind, with Weinstein predicting $9.7 million for the Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend. Far, far behind that is this weekend's other new wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, which is headed for about $450,000 from 2,160 theaters and will end up in the record books for one of the poorest openings in history.
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August 29th, 2012
The Expendables 2 remained in first place with $25.96 million on 5,672 screens in 33 markets for a total of $66.76 million. It debuted in first place in Spain with $2.45 million on 459 screens, which is significantly more than the original made in Spain when it opened. Meanwhile, it added $3.13 million on 815 screens in Russia, for a total of $14.22 million after two weeks of release in that market. This is more than its predecessor earned in total in Russia.
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August 27th, 2012
Ugh. That's really all I have to say. None of the new releases were able to make an impact at the box office; in fact, none of them even reached the top five. There was a new entrant in the top five, as The Dark Knight Rises rose to fifth place. That's how bad the box office was over the weekend. A film that's more than a month old returned to the top five. The best new release was Premium Rush, which only managed eighth place. Overall, the box office plummeted by 30% to just $97 million. Amazingly, this was still higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by just 4.6%. Year-to-date, 2012 maintains its lead over 2011. It is ahead of last year's pace by 4.2% at $7.43 billion to $7.13 billion.
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August 23rd, 2012
The Expendables 2 earned first place during its international debut with $23.01 million on 3,741 screens in 19 markets. It was led by Russia where it made $8.12 million on 804 during its opening weekend. It also topped the chart in Mexico ($3.32 million on 1,249) and in Italy ($1.91 million on 379). It only managed fourth place in the U.K. with $3.12 million on 451 screens. By comparison, The Expendables earned much less in Russia, Mexico, and Italy, but much more in the U.K. Overall, the sequel has made a little more than its predecessor, but it is too soon to tell where it will end up.
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August 20th, 2012
Apparently summer ended over the weekend. It didn't go out with a thud, but more just faded away. The Expendables 2 was able to earn first place, but missed even the low end of expectations. In fact, the only new release to not struggle as much as analysts were expecting was Sparkle, and even that film missed expectations, it just did so by a tiny margin. There is some good news. There was a lot of depth with seven films earning more than $10 million over the weekend and overall the box office only slipped 2.3% from last weekend hitting $139 million. This was actually 12% higher than the same weekend last year. Analysts were obviously hoping for something more, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that lead has shrunk to 3.3% at $7.22 billion to $6.99 billion. Attendance is only up by 2.1%, so if the rest of August and September don't pull their weight, we might see 2012 lose that lead entirely.
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August 16th, 2012
It looks like summer will be extended by one more week, as The Expendables 2 is tracking for an opening of close to $40 million, maybe a little more. Even better for the market, it isn't the only new release of the weekend. I think ParaNorman could be a solid hit in a counter-programming role. Not everyone agrees with me, on the other hand. ParaNorman is competing with The Odd Life of Timothy Green, but as a live action family film, it's chances are a lot weaker. The final new release is Sparkle, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Last year there were also four wide releases, but combined they made less than $40 million. The Expendables 2 could make more than that by itself. 2012 should finally break out of its losing streak.
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August 15th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises remained in first place with $35.1 million on 12,000 screens in 58 markets over the weekend. After nearly a month in release, it has $446.6 million internationally and $836.2 million worldwide. It became just the 33rd film to reach $800 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but has yet to open in Italy, while it should have enough left to get to $900 million with relative ease, getting to $1 billion will be a whole lot harder.
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August 13th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy was easily able to win the weekend box office race, finishing within $1 million of predictions. In fact, most of the top five finished within roughly $1 million of predictions. This helped the overall box office climb 16% from last weekend. However, the overall box office was still weak when compared to last year down 8.4%. 2012's lead over 2011 shrank to just 3.5% at $7.01 billion to $6.78 billion and if we don't turn things around soon, we might see 2012 relinquish the lead before the winter holiday season begins.
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August 12th, 2012
After another lengthy run for the country's number one film, we will have a new top movie this weekend thanks to a strong debut for The Bourne Legacy, which will beat The Dark Knight Rises after Batman spent three weekends atop the chart. Universal is predicting that their franchise reboot will pick up about $40.3 million this weekend, somewhat behind The Bourne Legacy's $69.2 million debut, but very creditable for movie that takes the franchise in a new direction. Even better for the overall market, The Campaign is predicted to post $27.4 million for Warner Bros., which will be enough for second place.
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August 9th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy should have no trouble dominating the box office this weekend and it might become the last $100 million hit of the summer. On the other hand, it might not be the only $100 million hit opening this week. The Campaign is an R-rated comedy, which should do better than most and at least has an outside shot at reaching the century club. Hope Springs is counter-programming aimed at a more mature target demographic and its chances over the weekend are not great, but its legs could be strong. Finally, there's Nitro Circus: The Movie 3D, which is only playing in about 800 theaters, but it could squeeze into the top ten. This week last year the new releases were led by The Help while a returning film, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, topped the chart. Neither film made $30 million over the weekend, which is something The Bourne Legacy should do with ease, so 2012 should pull out a win. Hopefully that is the case, because year-over-year, 2012 has been losing big time lately.
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August 8th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises held onto first place with $66.7 million on 15,400 screens in 58 markets lifting its totals to $378.1 million internationally and $732.0 million worldwide. Since last week, it cracked $300 million internationally and became just the 49th film to reach $700 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but still finished in first place in Mexico with $5.38 million on 2,370 screens and in Brazil with $4.76 million on 904 screens. In those two markets, it has two-week totals of $21.28 million and $15.28 million respectively. It was forced into second place in the U.K., but earned $6.67 million on 567 screens over the weekend for a total of $63.53 million after two. The film still has a few markets left to open in, including Italy, so it isn't quite done yet.
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August 6th, 2012
As I've mentioned before, for a film to repeat at the top of the box office, it generally just needs to earn a massive opening and to avoid a big fall during its sophomore stint. However, for a film to earn first place at the box office three times in a row, it needs help from weak new releases. This is certainly the case with The Dark Knight Rises. Granted, it did hold on better than expected this weekend, but the two new releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, were so far behind that The Dark Knight Rises would have won with ease, even if it just missed expectations. The weakness in the new releases resulted in the overall box office falling 8.5% from last week to just $123 million. More importantly, this was 27% lower than the same weekend last year. 2012 is still head of 2011's pace, but the margin has been reduced to just 4.2% at $6.80 billion to $6.53 billion. If things don't turn around soon, 2012 might relinquish its lead before the end of the year.
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August 5th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises will become the third film this year to top the weekend box office chart for three weeks running, thanks in part to another reasonably strong weekend (down 41% from last time), but mainly because Total Recall will muster only a decidedly so-so $26 million on debut, according to Sony's Sunday estimate. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days is expected to pull in about $14.7 million for Fox, rounding out another weekend where new movies have failed to catch on with audiences.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises should have a relatively easy time earning first place this weekend, but the new releases are stronger than last week. There are some that think Total Recall will earn first place, but there are also some who think it won't open with as much as the original opened with, despite more than 20 years of inflation and a change in the business that favors bigger opening weekends. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days is playing counter-programming and while there's not a lot of direct competition in theaters, it is still aiming for a midlevel hit, and no more. Last year, Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened with more than $54 million and there's really no chance that will be replicated this weekend and August will very likely start out on a losing note.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises overall numbers are still limited to studio estimates, but it was clearly the best film of the weekend with $126.2 million on 17,200 screens in 57 markets for a total of $252.0 million internationally and $539.1 million worldwide. Its best new market was France, where it made $10.91 million on 892 screens. It also dominated the box office in Mexico with $9.75 million on 2,765 screens and in Germany with $9.40 million on 718 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.40 million. Russia was close behind with $8.33 million on 1,312 screens. The film also earned first place in Brazil, but with $6.70 million on 944, which is a little more subdued, while it missed top spot in Japan with $4.76 million on 546 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $11.42 million on 589 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $47.96 million. It also remained champion in Australia with $7.77 million on 628 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.00 million after two. On the other hand, it was pushed into second place in South Korea with $5.93 million on 807 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.67 million after two. So far, The Dark Knight Rises has been about on par with Ice Age: Continental Drift, maybe a little behind that film's pace, and it is on track to earn close to $600 million internationally and about $1 billion worldwide. This is a fantastic result, but still below expectations.
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August 1st, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises earned $9 million on 332 IMAX screens domestically, which was a record for a sophomore stint. Internationally, it pulled in $6.4 million on 147 IMAX screens for a total weekend haul of $15.4 million. The film now has a total of $37 million domestically and $15.2 million internationally for a worldwide haul of $52.2 million. This was the fastest time for a film to reach $50 million on the IMAX format.
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July 31st, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises remained on top of the per theater chart with an average of $14,101 in more than 4,400 theaters. Killer Joe opened with an average of $12,621 in three theaters, while Ruby Sparks was also strong with an average of $10,832 in thirteen. Both films have some potential to expand. Deep Sea 3-D remained strong with $10,412 in its lone theater.
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July 30th, 2012
That was a pretty bad week. The Dark Knight Rises fell faster than most people were expecting while The Watch flopped. Step Up Revolution came very close to matching expectations, but it was expected to struggle, so that's not saying much. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last week to $134 million, which was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. The swings we've seen at the box office are erratic, to be polite, but at least 2012 remains ahead of 2011, even if the margin shrunk to 5.5% at $6.61 billion to $6.27 billion.
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July 29th, 2012
Weak openings from The Watch and Step Up Revolution will give The Dark Knight Rises an easy win at the box office this weekend. The superhero actioner will fall about 60% according to Warner Bros.' Sunday estimate.
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July 27th, 2012
Next week there are two wide releases coming out, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days. I think it is a safe bet Total Recall will come out on top of the box office... Actually, it is a safe bet The Dark Knight Rises will complete the hat trick on top of the box office chart, while Total Recall will be the best of the new releases. However, since our prizes this week are aimed at kids, we will use Dog Days as the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of iCarly: Season Four on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of iCarly: Season Four on DVD.
Finally, one other entrant will be chosen regardless of what they predicted, and they will win the last copy of iCarly: Season Four on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 26th, 2012
There's little doubt that The Dark Knight Rises will repeat as the box office champion this weekend. There are some questions regarding how much it will dominate the box office. Will it continue to match The Dark Knight's pace? Will it show the same legs as The Avengers did earlier this summer? Or will it collapse like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II did? There are also a few, very few, asking questions about The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Both films are opening wide, but neither film looks like it will be able to get anywhere beyond a midlevel hit and they are very unlikely to match last year's two wide releases, Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs. Fortunately, The Dark Knight Rises should earn enough to ensure a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 26th, 2012
Some international numbers were late in reporting, others are still limited to studio estimates, but it is clear which film came out on top. The Dark Knight Rises only opened in 17 markets, but that was still enough to earn first place during its first weekend in international release. It managed $88 million on 7,173 screens in those 17 markets, with the U.K. leading the way with $22.23 million on 594 screens. South Korea was next with $15.65 million on 1,210 (including $12.90 million over the weekend proper), while Australia was right behind with $15.50 million on 628. It was not quite as potent in Spain, but it still earned first place with $4.17 million on 624 screens. The film will more than triple its market count this coming weekend with debuts in France, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, and many smaller markets, so it should rise even further.
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July 24th, 2012
The winners of our Dark Days Ahead contest were determined and they are...
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July 24th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises got off to a fantastic start on IMAX earning $19.01 million on 332 screens domestically, while internationally it made approximately $4.8 million on 64. Its international IMAX screen count will more than double this coming weekend, so it should have an even better weekend internationally.
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July 24th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $36,532, which is excellent for an ultra-wide release. The Queen of Versailles was next with an average of $17,109 in three theaters. This does show some potential to expand, but as a documentary, it likely won't get too far. Space Station bounced back into the $10,000 club with an average of $11,540 in two theaters with Deep Sea 3-D right behind with $10,590 in one theater. The final film to crack $10,000 was The Imposter with $10,202 in its lone theater.
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July 23rd, 2012
There was tragedy over the weekend at a midnight showing of The Dark Knight Rises, which is clearly a more important story than any box office numbers. However, we try to avoid politics here, and try to stick with the numbers, but the two stories might be hard to untangle. As expected, The Dark Knight Rises led the box office, but with a more subdued opening. It failed to match The Avengers's opening from earlier in the summer, but was the biggest from the franchise. It helped propel the overall box office to $230 million, which was 39% higher than last weekend and 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 now leads 2011 by 6.7% at $6.37 billion to $5.96 billion.
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July 20th, 2012
Not only has The Dark Knight Rises scared off the competition in terms of wide releases, there are almost no limited releases coming out this week either. Of the four releases, two are documentaries, one is a 3D samurai film, and the other an ensemble. I don't think any of them will earn a real measure of mainstream success, but The Queen of Versailles will likely perform the best this weekend.
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July 20th, 2012
There are two wide releases coming out next week, The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Nearly everyone is assuming The Dark Knight Rises will be the biggest film over the weekend, but we need a new release to be the the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, and The Watch has the best shot for second place. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Watch.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Private Romeo on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Private Romeo on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 19th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises looks to crush the competition at the box office this weekend. No one is wondering if it will be the number one film this weekend. People are wondering if it will have the number one opening of all time. At the beginning the year, I would have put the odds of that happening at about 80%. However, after The Avengers opened with more than $200 million, the chance of The Dark Knight Rises breaking that record is now very slim. It has a better shot at earning more than the entire box office this weekend last year, or about $191 million. The odds of 2012 winning in the year-over-year comparison is nearly 100%.
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July 19th, 2012
Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne in Warner Bros. Pictures' and Legendary Pictures' action thriller "The Dark Knight Rises," a Warner Bros. Pictures release. TM & © DC Comics.
Steven Zeitchik recently posted an interesting article on the L.A. Times web site that discusses the possibility that we have entered the age of what he calls the "uber-hit ... movies that go beyond modest success to dominate the multiplex, often leaving other contenders far behind."
Statistical analysis can provide us with some insight into whether there really has been a sea change in the industry.
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July 16th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift opened on the low end of expectations. The rest of the top five did better than predicted, but that wasn't enough to compensate and the overall box office fell 16% from last weekend to $165 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, and less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II opened with. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, even if the margin is down to 6.6% at $6.05 billion to $5.68 million. The box office should bounce back next weekend with the release of The Dark Knight Rises.
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July 13th, 2012
By some measures, The Dark Knight Rises was the most anticipated film of the summer and there are some who think it will beat The Avengers' records. I don't see that happening. However, it could earn second place on the all time opening weekend chart. It's the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Dark Knight Rises.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Louie: Season Two on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Wilfred: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2012
June was not a good month. Of the twelve films that opened wide last month, only four beat expectations by any serious margin, while there were seven that we know will fail to match expectations and one that's too close to call. That's a really bad record. Granted, 2012 still has a huge advantage over 2011, but it did shrink over the month of June. Looking forward to July, we get mixed signals. On the one hand, last July there were two monster hits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which I'm considering a July film even though it opened on June 29th, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. Those two films combined earned more than $700 million. This time around the only guaranteed monster hit is The Dark Knight Rises and I don't think there are many analysts bullish enough to think it will make $700 million by itself. That's not to say analysts aren't bullish on the film's chances. Some think it will top The Avengers at the box office. If it fails to reach $500 million, it would be seen as a disappointment. On the other hand, last year there were four other films that topped $100 million, while this year there are only six other films, period, and only two of those, The Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age: Continental Drift, are sure things to hit $100 million. There is a chance The Dark Knight Rises will earn more than the rest of the wide releases earn combined. And if this movie bombs, there's little hope for the rest of the month. But that won't happen, right?
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