March 11th, 2020
It’s another terrible week on the home market. There are a couple of Oscar-bait releases to talk about, but neither are Pick of the Week contenders, at least in my opinion. There are no movies that are anything more than midlevel hits. The best new release of the week, at least in my opinion, is Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Ultimate Collector’s Edition Blu-ray.
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February 19th, 2020
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There are not a lot of major releases on this week’s list, but what we lack in quantity, we more than make up for in quality. In fact, there are five contenders for Pick of the Week and a couple of other smaller releases that might end up in my collection soon. It is going to be a rough week on my wallet. These include a couple of Oscar contenders, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Jojo Rabbit; a couple of animated releases, The Point! and Tex Avery: Screwball Classics: Volume 1; and a TV on DVD Megaset, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: The Complete Series. All five releases are worth picking up, but I’m going with Jojo Rabbit as this week’s Pick of the Week.
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November 26th, 2019
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Frozen II beat expectations over the weekend, and earned several records along the way. In fact, its three-day opening of $130.26 million is better than the previous 5-day Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film, a record previously held by Frozen. The other two new releases, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and 21 Bridges, missed expectations, but were close enough that the overall box office was very healthy. In fact, the box office rose 89% from last weekend to $204 million. This was 5.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but this weekend last year was Thanksgiving, so being down by 5.7% during a holiday misalignment is a fantastic result. We did lose the weekday holidays, so year-over-year, 2019 lost a lot of ground to 2018 and is now behind last year’s pace by 7.4% or $770 million at $9.71 billion to $10.48 billion. We should gain a lot next weekend, thanks to Thanksgiving, and by the first weekend of December, things will settle down.
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November 20th, 2019
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Ford v Ferrari opened in top spot on the international chart, just like it did domestically. However, it wasn’t nearly as dominant earning $21.4 million in 41 markets. The film wasn’t nearly as strong internationally as it was domestically in most markets, but it did do really well in Russia with an opening of $3.33 million on 1,044 screens, easily earning first place in that market. It’s wasn’t as successful in either the U.K. or France, earning $2.3 million each. On the other hand, the film wasn’t even able to crack $1 million in Spain. This is surprising, as the box office results of sports movies tend to be proportional to their popularity and this kind of auto racing is more popular internationally than it is domestically.
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November 18th, 2019
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Ford v Ferrari had a good opening over the weekend, but unfortunately, it was only good and not great. Furthermore, it was the only film that had a good weekend. The other two new releases crashed and burned, while the holdovers couldn’t compensate for this weakness. The overall box office fell 11% from last weekend to just $108 million, which was 37% lower than the same weekend last year. The year-to-date numbers don’t look any better, as 2019 is now behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 6.5% or $660 million at $9.47 billion to $10.13 billion. Worse still, 2019 has fallen behind 2016’s pace. Things need to turn around and fast.
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November 17th, 2019
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If the weekend estimates hold, then Ford v Ferrari, with an estimated $31.04 million, will open with almost as much as the rest of the top five combined. A lot of time when something like this happens, it is because there’s a monster hit opening. In this case, Ford v Ferrari will need strong legs just to top its production budget and hit $100 million at the box office and it is dominating the box office due to really weak competition. Fortunately, the film should have strong legs thanks to its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore. The film is not doing as well internationally with an opening of $21.4 million in 41 markets. This includes a $3.2 million debut in Russia and $2.3 million debuts in the U.K. and France. If the film can earn some Awards Season buzz, then it could have the legs to get to $250 million worldwide, which should be enough to break even sometime during its home market run.
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November 16th, 2019
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Ford v Ferrari is going to dominate the weekend chart. In fact, it earned more on Friday than the second place film is expected to earn during the full weekend. The film pulled in $10.94 million during its opening day, putting it on pace for $30 million over the full weekend, which is significantly ahead of our prediction. Its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore should result in stellar word-of-mouth. It might even do well during Awards Season, although if it does win any Oscars, I think it will be limited to technical categories.
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November 15th, 2019
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Ford v Ferrari opened with $2.1 million from its Thursday previews, which is on par with predictions. Its prospects for the weekend still depend on how well its overwhelmingly positive reviews translate into long legs. It’s still too early to revise my $24 million prediction.
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November 14th, 2019
There are three wide releases coming out this week and at the moment, all three of them have positive reviews. Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. Ford v Ferrari is the best new release of the week and should have no trouble earning first place on the box office. On the other hand, the film cost nearly $100 million to make, so it will likely struggle to break even any time soon. Charlie’s Angels cost half as much to make, but it is also on track to open with about half as much. The Good Liar is the smallest of the three new films and, with a more mature target audience, it is unlikely to have a big opening. Worse still, it is likely all three new releases this week will earn less than Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opened with this weekend last year. 2019 is going to take another beating in the year-over-year competition and it might even be worse than last weekend was.
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November 1st, 2019
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Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year.
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October 11th, 2019
Action movie starring Naomi Scott, Ella Balinska, and Kristen Stewart, directed by Elizabeth Banks opens November 15 ... Full Movie Details.
The Angels are working for the mysterious Charles Townsend, whose security and investigative agency has expanded internationally. With the world’s smartest, bravest, and most highly trained women all over the globe, there are now teams of Angels guided by multiple Bosleys taking on the toughest jobs everywhere.
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June 27th, 2019
Action movie starring Naomi Scott, Ella Balinska, and Kristen Stewart, directed by Elizabeth Banks opens November 15 ... Full Movie Details.
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