November 12th, 2021
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Eternals should stay top at the box office this weekend, based on our model’s Friday-morning run. But Clifford the Big Red Dog has been putting in very respectable numbers so far and could be surprisingly close to the Marvel if it holds on well through the weekend. Here’s how things stack up this morning…
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November 7th, 2021
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The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s 26th outing is opening this weekend very much in line with similar releases in the franchise. Eternals will land with $71 million domestically, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning estimate. That’s about $4 million less than Shang-Chi earned in September, which was in turn about $5 million less than Black Widow’s $80-million opening in July. But it’s also very much in line with what Doctor Strange opened with before the pandemic. In short, the MCU looks to be doing fine.
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November 5th, 2021
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Disney’s Eternals, the latest outing for the MCU, got off to a strong start on Thursday evening, with $9.5 million in preview earnings, according to the studio. That’s a bit more than Shang-Chi’s $8.8 million, but somewhat less than the $13.2 million earned by Black Widow. That points to an opening weekend in the mid-$70 millions.
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October 3rd, 2021
Venom: Let There Be Carnage will set a new pandemic-era benchmark this weekend, with Sony Pictures projecting a stellar $90-million opening weekend as of Sunday morning, easily eclipsing the $80-million debut of Black Widow back in July. That number also represents a very solid 7.8 times the movie’s Thursday-evening preview number, which suggests good word of mouth. The good news doesn’t stop there, with this weekend’s other domestic openers, The Addams Family 2 and The Many Saints of Newark both doing better than predicted, No Time to Die opening with spectacular (for the pandemic era) numbers internationally, and Dune continuing to do well around the world.
First, here’s how the domestic numbers look this morning…
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October 1st, 2021
A critical month for the theatrical industry has started with some promising news: Venom: Let There Be Carnage posted a very solid $11.6 million from “preview” screenings on Thursday evening, the second-best result from previews during the pandemic, and not far behind Black Widow’s $13.2 million. Sony Pictures, while presumably very happy with how things are going so far, are urging caution when extrapolating that number out to the whole weekend. Their current projection for the weekend is towards the high end of the $50 million to $60 million range, with a preview-to-weekend multiplier around five.
Here’s what our model has to say about Venom’s prospects, along with this weekend’s other new wide releases and returning films…
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September 5th, 2021
Disney is projecting that Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will open with $71.4 million over three days and $83.5 million over the four-day Labor Day weekend, making it the second-best new release of the pandemic era and smashing the Labor Day weekend record held since 1999 by The Sixth Sense. At the very end of a stop-start Summer, this is arguably the best result we’ve seen at the box office. And maybe, just maybe, a sign that studios will see the benefits of holding off on releasing films to streaming on opening weekend.
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September 3rd, 2021
One of the oldest box office records on the books will be broken this weekend as Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will break The Sixth Sense’s 22-year-old record for the best Labor Day weekend in theaters. That record stands at just $29.27 million, not adjusted for inflation, but Shang-Chi will almost certainly break the inflation-adjusted record of $53.99 million too, based on our weekend prediction and analysis of its Thursday preview numbers. It would have to show surprising legs over the weekend to beat Black Widow’s $80-million and claim the best weekend of 2021 though. The real question is whether it can top F9’s $70-million second-place figure.
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August 29th, 2021
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Candyman went into the weekend a firm favorite for top spot at the box office after posting $1.9 million in previews on Thursday. That number pointed to a weekend just shy of $20 million, but the film posted an excellent $9.14 million on Friday, and will hold on for an opening weekend projected at $22.37 million by Universal this morning. While that’s only the third-best weekend in August, after Free Guy’s $28.4-million debut and The Suicide Squad’s $26.2-million opening, it comfortably out-performs our model’s prediction, and it gives the theatrical market a welcome, and much-needed, boost.
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August 13th, 2021
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Free Guy finally gets its day in theaters this weekend at the fourth time of asking, and it should top the box office chart according to our model. But, as if arriving more than a year after its original release date and under the 20th Century Studios banner after Fox’s acquisition by Disney wasn’t enough, it also has to carry a large of part of the hopes of the theatrical business on its back after some shaky opening weekends and sharp drops for returning films in recent weeks. It will have some help from Don’t Breathe 2 and Respect, which are both also opening in wide release.
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August 1st, 2021
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Get ready for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: The Movie everyone. Disney’s strategy of converting its theme park rides into adventure movies is hitting pay dirt again this weekend with Jungle Cruise on its way to a $34.2-million debut, according to the studio’s Sunday morning projection. That’s substantially above our model’s prediction, and it’s not the only movie to be earning more than expected: The Green Knight will earn about $6.8 million this weekend to land in second place. Those two films more than make up for the softness of the returning titles, and we are looking at a welcome “up” weekend for the market as a whole.
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July 25th, 2021
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M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.
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July 23rd, 2021
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Our model has four films within five million dollars of one another this weekend as Space Jam: A New Legacy and Black Widow return to theaters, and Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins and Old appear for the first time. Black Widow and Old are in a statistical dead heat at the top, but any of the four films has a shot at winning the weekend.
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July 18th, 2021
Families returned to movie theaters in a big way this weekend, and helped propel Space Jam: A New Legacy to a strong $31.65 million opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. With Escape Room: Tournament of Champions also beating our model’s prediction, the newcomers made up for soft results for returning films.
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July 16th, 2021
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In one of the more unpredictable weekends at the box office in recent months, our model makes Black Widow a comfortable favorite to top the box office chart, but Space Jam: A New Legacy can’t be ruled out of the running yet if the Disney movie falls more steeply than expected from its $80-million opening weekend.
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July 11th, 2021
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Disney is celebrating a global opening worth a projected $215 million for Black Widow, thanks to $80 million in domestic theatrical receipts, $78 million in international box office, and over $60 million in Disney+ Premier Access consumer spending. That makes it the biggest domestic opening at the box office since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December, 2019, and about $10 million more than F9’s pandemic-era record set two weeks ago. The studio is also celebrating more than $100 million in consumer spending in the domestic US/Canada market—and claiming another pandemic record—although theater owners are wishing that more of that money had flowed in their direction this weekend.
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July 9th, 2021
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As of Friday morning, all signs point towards a spectacular opening weekend for Black Widow. The most eagerly-anticipated film of the Summer posted $13.2 million in previews between 5pm and midnight on Thursday, per Disney, which easily tops the $7.1 million preview earnings posted by F9 a couple of weeks ago. F9 went on to earn $70 million over its opening weekend, which was just shy of 10 times the earnings from its preview shows. If Black Widow does the same it’ll surge past the $100 million market. Whatever happens, it’s set for the biggest weekend of the pandemic era, and our models say $100 million is well within reach.
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July 4th, 2021
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The long July 4 weekend is being dominated by one studio (and for once it’s not Disney). Universal Pictures are reaping the rewards of releasing three high-profile films in two weeks. F9: The Fast Saga will top the chart for a second weekend with a projected $24-million three-day weekday that takes the action movie to $117 million in total so far, the second-highest earnings for a film during 2021 domestically. The Boss Baby: Family Business is headed for second place with $17.36 million, and The Forever Purge will be third with $12.75 million. All three films are coming in somewhat behind our model’s Friday predictions.
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December 3rd, 2019
Action movie starring Scarlett Johansson opens May 1 ... Full Movie Details.
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