Weekend predictions: four films vie for top spot

July 23, 2021

Black Widow

Our model has four films within five million dollars of one another this weekend as Space Jam: A New Legacy and Black Widow return to theaters, and Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins and Old appear for the first time. Black Widow and Old are in a statistical dead heat at the top, but any of the four films has a shot at winning the weekend.





M. Night Shyamalan’s Old is expected to bring in around $18.8 million, based on the director’s history at the box office and the current state of the market. Shyamalan isn’t the box office draw he once was, but can still bring in a $40-million opening under normal circumstances. With the model estimating that a shade over half of moviegoers are currently attending theaters, a $20-million start is on the cards, and anything close to that would be a good result.



Snake Eyes is a challenge to predict because it’s effectively a reboot of the G.I. Joe franchise, which had its last theatrical release back in 2013. The model is relying quite heavily on Robert Schwentke’s history as a director, Henry Golding’s short resumé in action films, and the last few Paramount action movies.

If the film lives up to the previous installments in the franchise it could top $20 million—in fact, if we assume $40 million would be the “normal” opening, and 65% of action movie fans are currently going to theaters, something around $25 million is on the cards. A debut closer to $15 million seems right to me, though, and from an analytical perspective it’s better to use as many comparable films as possible, and just two G.I. Joe films doesn’t really tell us a lot.





The model makes Black Widow the slight favorite to win the weekend, but that’s assuming it performs like other films in their second weekend in theaters during the pandemic. Its second-weekend performance was about 10% short of that, and a similar decline this weekend would land it around $16.5 million. That gives Old an opening to win the weekend, but Snake Eyes could also easily sneak in.

Could we end up with a four-way tie when we get the estimates of Sunday. That can’t be ruled out. Space Jam: A New Legacy is likely to fall quite steeply from its $31-million opening. If it keeps its loss to less than 50%, and Black Widow and Old come in a little below expectations, it could yet take the title.

My hunch is that Old will end up the winner, but I wouldn’t bet money on it this weekend.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Widow, Space Jam: A New Legacy, Old, Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins, G.I. Joe, M. Night Shyamalan, Robert Schwentke, Henry Golding