Weekend predictions: Honest Thief set for second weekend win

October 23rd, 2020

Honest Thief has some theoretical competition at the box office this weekend, but the marketing for The Empty Man has been negligible, and its 2,027 theater count is not enough for there to be much chance that we’ll see a change at the top of the chart. The lack of new films also points to a down week at the box office overall, at a time when the industry could desperately do with some good news. More...

Home Market Releases for January 21st, 2020

January 21st, 2020

It’s an odd week for the home market, as there are four wide releases coming out this week, which is more than most weeks. However, none of them were $100 million hits domestically, so it feels slow on top. That said, The Addams Family did come close to that mark and Zombieland: Double Tap was a solid midlevel hit. As for high quality releases, Jay And Silent Bob Reboot will very likely please fans of the franchise, but I’m unsure about its ability draw in newcomers. Finally, the Pain & Glory is the best of the best and only the lack of substantial extras prevents it from winning Pick of the Week with ease. Zombieland: Double Tap has much better extras, so it a contender for Pick of the Week as well. Pain & Glory does win, but it is relatively close. More...

International Box Office: Terminator Cracks Century Mark in its Worldwide Debut

November 6th, 2019

Terminator: Dark Fate cracked the $100 million mark worldwide during its first weekend. $101.9 million to be more precise, giving it an early total of $123.6 million so far. Sadly, this is just $72.9 million internationally in 48 markets and that’s just not enough given the film’s production budget. Its biggest market was China, where it opened in second place with $26.84 million over the weekend for a total opening of $28.58 million. The film debuted in first place in South Korea with $7.19 million on 1,315 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $9.79 million. Had the movie merely cost $100 million, then I would be a lot more happy with this result, but the movie cost a lot more than that and needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even any time soon. I just don’t see that happening. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dark Fate Might have Terminated the Franchise

November 5th, 2019

It was a bad weekend at the box office, with Terminator: Dark Fate missing expectations by a significant degree. Harriet was able to beat expectations, but it wasn’t enough to truly compensate. Furthermore, Arctic Dogs and Motherless Brooklyn were practically non-factors at the box office. The box office did grow 9.5% from last weekend reaching $115 million. More importantly, this was 21% lower than this weekend last year. 2019’s deficit grew to 5.6% or $540 million and is now behind 2018’s pace by $9.15 billion to $9.70 billion. It is important to point out that while 2019 is being crushed by 2018, it is still on pace to be the second largest box office of all time, while its ticket sales are better than 2017’s pace, so as disappointing as the year as been so far, there are still reasons to celebrate. More...

Weekend Estimates: Terminator Tops Chart, but is Far from Lethal

November 3rd, 2019

As expected, Terminator: Dark Fate is going to open in first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it is failing to match even the low end of expectations with an estimate of $29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not great, but they are better than this opening. The film is doing much better internationally with an estimated $$72.9 million debut, including an estimated $30 million opening in China. However, that’s not enough. The film needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even and since the only major market left to debut in is Japan, it’s not going to get there. More...

Friday Estimates: Holiday Season Starts Without a Lot of Cheer

November 2nd, 2019

Terminator: Dark Fate opened in first place on Friday, but it only made $10.6 million, well below expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are good, but not great, meaning it won’t have the legs needed to overcome this slow start. Look for about $28 million domestically this weekend. Early reports have it performing better internationally with a likely $30 million debut in China, but again, this is below expectations and not enough given the film’s $185 million production budget. More...

Weekend Predictions: Halloween Gives Way to the Holiday Season

October 31st, 2019

It’s the first weekend of November, which is the unofficial start of both the Christmas blockbuster season and of Awards Season. There are four films hoping to take advantage of time of year to create some box office success. Of these, only Terminator: Dark Fate is expected to be a true box office hit. It will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the rest of the new releases earn in total. I think Harriet will do okay and could even crack $10 million during the weekend. On the other hand, Arctic Dogs still has no reviews and that’s a really bad sign. Finally there’s Motherless Brooklyn, which is opening in well under 2,000 theaters. This weekend last year, Bohemian Rhapsody opened with more than $50 million and even the high end predictions don’t have Terminator: Dark Fate earning that much. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019 in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Maleficent Holds Off Joker for Top Spot

October 28th, 2019

It was a super close race for top spot on the weekend box office chart with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker neck-and-neck. In fact, they changed positions over the weekend and even reversed positions from the weekend estimates. Both of these films topped expectations by a small degree, as did most of the new releases. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough, as the box office fell 24% from last weekend to $105 million. This is also lower than the same weekend last year, but by a tiny 0.7% margin. I’m not going to get upset about a decline this small, but it does mean 2019 has fallen further behind 2018’s pace with the deficit growing to $520 million / 5.4% at $9.00 billion to $9.52 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Wrestles First Place from Maleficent, Probably

October 27th, 2019

Joker is returning to first place on the weekend chart with $18.9 million, which is a tiny bit ahead of expectations. However, it is in a close enough race with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil that the pair could switch places when the final numbers show up tomorrow and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $47.8 million on 14,000 screens in 79 markets for totals of $571.5 million internationally and $849.1 million worldwide. It is now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time worldwide, and is on pace to become the first R-rated film to reach $1 billion globally. More...

Friday Estimates: Joker Returns to the Top

October 26th, 2019

Joker wasn’t gone from top spot for long, as it earned first place on Friday with $5.46 million, putting it on pace for close to $19 million over the weekend. This is very close to our prediction, but it is ranking better, due to marginally-weaker-than-expected competition. It also reportedly became the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time, at least worldwide. It is not going to catch up to The Passion of the Christ domestically. More...

Weekend Predictions: Halloween Scares Away Wide Releases

October 25th, 2019

The final weekend before Halloween is rarely a good time to release a film and the paltry selection of new releases on this list shows this year will be no different. The Current War: Director’s Cut is the only film earning good reviews, but it is opening in the fewest theaters by far. Countdown has the worst reviews, but it is a horror film opening just before Halloween, so its opening weekend could be okay. Black and Blue is in the middle in terms of reviews, theater count, and box office chances. Sadly, it is very likely all three films will open below $10 million over the weekend. There’s a slim chance none of them open in the top five. By comparison, this weekend last year saw only one wide release, Hunter Killer, which bombed. This year will be much better in terms of new releases, but none of the holdovers will match Halloween on top. 2019 does have much better depth, so I think we will get a small win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: It Took a Trio of Hits for 2019 to Win

October 22nd, 2019

The weekend went about as well as expected, overall. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil didn’t open as well as expected, but Zombieland: Double Tap helped make up the difference. The overall box office was still down 6.5% from last weekend at $140 million; however, this was 5.3% higher than the same weekend last year and that is a much more important number. 2019 is still behind 2018’s pace by 5.3% or $500 million at $8.86 billion to $9.35 billion, but that’s not as bad as it has been this year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Maleficent Leads the way, but Box Office is a Team Effort

October 20th, 2019

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil did bounce back on Saturday and that is helping it earn an estimated $36.0 million during its opening weekend. It is still missing expectations, but by a more reasonable margin. Its internal multiplier is about the same as the first film managed, despite this film earning weaker reviews. Audience reactions were the same, as both films earned an A-rating from CinemaScore. As for the movies international numbers, it is pulling in $117.0 million, but it also opened everywhere, so it needed a monster start and I’m not sure this was it. The film did have a faster opening that its predecessor did in China with $22.4 million, while it cracked $10 million in Russia with an an opening of $10.7 million. The film cost $185 million to make, so this is not a fast enough start to break even in the short term, but with Disney+ starting next month, it could break even eventually. More...

Friday Estimates: Maleficent isn’t Evil, but it is far from Good

October 19th, 2019

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil wasn’t expected to be a monster hit, but its previews gave reason to be optimistic. That optimism is gone as a result of Friday’s estimates. The film pulled in just $12.5 million on Friday, meaning it will have to have nearly as good legs as the original had just to avoid opening below the low end of expectations. That seems unlikely, especially with its weaker reviews, although it did manage the same A rating from CinemaScore. Maybe it will really bounce back today, but we won’t really know till the weekend estimates come out tomorrow. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Zombieland Shows Signs of Life

October 18th, 2019

Zombieland: Double Tap had the better previews of the two wide releases earning $2.85 million last night. Solid reviews should also help the film’s legs during its opening weekend and it should have no trouble topping Zombieland’s debut and our $25 million prediction. In fact, it has a shot at $30 million over the full weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can a Dynamic Duo of Sequels Stop the Joker?

October 18th, 2019

There are two wide releases this week and both of them are delayed sequels. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is widely expected to top the box office chart this weekend, but it is also widely expected to fail to match the original by a huge margin. On the other hand, Zombieland: Double Tap will likely only manage third place, but it has a real shot at matching Zombieland, at least in terms of raw dollars. By comparison, this weekend last year saw the near record-setting debut of Halloween. (It would have set the October record, had Venom not set it two weeks earlier.) I really thought 2019 would have a chance to win in the year-over-year comparison, but unless Maleficent: Mistress of Evil really beats expectations, that’s not going to happen. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Joker’s Hold is No Laughing Matter

October 15th, 2019

Joker dominated the weekend box office, crushing expectations and setting records in the process. The Addams Family also beat expectations and this really helped 2019. Granted, the box office was still down 7.8% from last weekend to $138 million; however, this was 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Setting October Sophomore Record with $55 million

October 13th, 2019

Joker is setting the record for the biggest sophomore weekend in October. It is estimated to earn $55.0 million over the weekend, which is nearly $12 million more than the current record held by Gravity. It is also nearly $20 million more than Venom earned during its second weekend of release. If this estimate holds, then Joker will have earned nearly $192.7 million after just ten days of release. Furthermore, its international numbers are just as potent with a weekend haul of $123.7 million on 24,000 screens in 79 markets giving it totals of $351.2 million internationally and $543.9 million worldwide. Given its legs so far, $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet. It would be nice to get a billion dollar hit from 2019 that isn’t from Disney / Marvel. The film had a pair of stunning debuts in France ($10.3 million on 630 screens) and Germany ($9.3 million on 912). However, its biggest weekend haul was in the U.K., where it was down just 22%, earning $12.0 million on 1,472 screens for a two-week total of $36.9 million. More...

Friday Estimates: The Joker Laughs at the Competition

October 12th, 2019

Joker remained in first place earning $17 million on Friday. This is 57% lower than the film’s opening Friday, which is a really good hold and puts it on pace for $58 million over the full weekend. This would lift its running tally to nearly $200 million after just 10 days of release and might even be enough to cover the film’s entire combined production and advertising budget. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Gemini Has No Equal, For Now

October 11th, 2019

As expected, Gemini Man, got off to the fastest start of any of the three films opening this weekend. After all, it is an action film with a bankable star. Unfortunately, it didn’t open as fast as expected, earning $1.6 million. Because it is an action film with weak reviews that will likely turn into poor word-of-mouth, it will very likely have short legs. It needed about $2 million to match our $24 million prediction, so with this opening, I’m not convinced it will get to $20 million during its opening weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like a Scary Weekend

October 11th, 2019

There are three wide releases coming out, two of which have terrible reviews, The Addams Family and Gemini Man, while the third film, Jexi, as no reviews. It’s one of those weekends. Joker is widely expected to earn first place and it should hold better than Venom did during its second weekend of release, which is great news for 2019. Furthermore, this weekend last year, there were three wide releases with a total opening of $40 million. We should be able to top that this year by a significant margin, but A Star is Born is the one reason why 2018 could win in the year-over-year competition. More...

2019 Preview: October

October 1st, 2019

September ended on a bit of a weak note, but overall the month was excellent helping 2019 gain some ground on 2018. Can October continue this trend? There are certainly some potential box office hits coming out this month, starting with Joker, which opens the first weekend of the month and should be the biggest hit of the month. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is aiming for $150 million and should be a hit, even if it doesn’t match the original at the box office. There are also a handful of films with an outside shot at getting to $100 million and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made it to that milestone. Meanwhile, last October, Venom broke records during its opening weekend, while A Star is Born had stellar legs helping both earn more than $200 million domestically. I don’t think the top two films will be able to match that this year, but we do have better depth, for the most part, so perhaps 2019 will continue its winning ways and close ground, at least by a little bit. More...

The Addams Family Trailer

August 16th, 2019

Animated comedy opens October 11 ... Full Movie Details. More...