Weekend Estimates: Joker Wrestles First Place from Maleficent, Probably

October 27, 2019

Joker

Joker is returning to first place on the weekend chart with $18.9 million, which is a tiny bit ahead of expectations. However, it is in a close enough race with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil that the pair could switch places when the final numbers show up tomorrow and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $47.8 million on 14,000 screens in 79 markets for totals of $571.5 million internationally and $849.1 million worldwide. It is now the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time worldwide, and is on pace to become the first R-rated film to reach $1 billion globally.

It looks like Maleficent: Mistress of Evil will finish in second place with $18.54 million over the weekend for a total of $65.41 million after two weeks of release. It is on pace for $100 million domestically, which is enough to save face. Fortunately, it is doing better internationally with an estimated $64.3 million in 56 markets for totals of $228.1 million internationally and $293.5 million worldwide. The film needs to make at least $400 million worldwide to break even eventually and that seems likely right now. Perhaps the film will collapse after Halloween, which would put this milestone out of reach, but I don’t think that’s likely.

The Addams Family is earning third place according to estimates with $11.71 million over the weekend for a total of $72.80 million after three weeks of release. Unfortunately, because Halloween is this week, it will likely collapse before it reaches $100 million domestically. It did start its international run in earnest, earning $2.75 million in both Mexico and the U.K. This was enough for second place in the former market, but only fourth in the latter. Overall, the film has only managed $11.0 million internationally, but it has yet to open in a number of major markets.

Zombieland: Double Tap is falling to fourth place according to estimates with $11.6 million over the weekend for a total of $47.0 million after two. This represents a 57% sophomore stint decline, which is a steeper decline than we anticipated, but not a terrible result. It is still early in its international run, but earned $9 million in 40 markets for a total of $16.6 million so far. This includes a second place, $2 million debut in Russia. It opens in France this coming weekend, but doesn’t end its run until late November when it opens in Japan.

Countdown did a little better than expected with an opening of $9.01 million. The film cost just $6.5 million to make and reportedly cost just $21 million including advertising, so this is a good start. Its genre, its reviews, its C plus from CinemaScore, its release date, etc. all suggest short legs, but it should break even early in its home market run.

Black and Blue won’t be as lucky as it is missing the top five with $8.33 million during its opening weekend, which is not great for a film that reportedly cost $20 million to make. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it doesn’t have a CinemaScore. It should match its production budget domestically, but its box office potential internationally is much, much worse. There are no international numbers to report

The Current War: Director’s Cut is only managing ninth place according to estimates with $2.73 million during its opening weekend. It managed the worst theater average of the three wide releases, which is not what I was expecting. Furthermore, its reviews have fallen below the overall positive level and I don’t think its word-of-mouth will be strong enough to help its legs. It will be remembered as busted Oscar-bait, if it is remembered at all.

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Zombieland: Double Tap, The Current War: Director’s Cut, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, The Addams Family, Black and Blue, Joker, Countdown