After a robust Memorial day weekend start, The Little Mermaid retains its opening count of 4,320 theaters from last week, once again owning the title of widest release on both land and sea. The latest adaptation of the charming franchise gathered $95.58 million from North American theaters, while earning less overseas with a take of $68.3 million. This week however the film will slip into second place at the box office as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into theaters.
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There’s really no competition at the box office this weekend for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which will cruise to a comfortable win in its second outing. Our model is predicting a steep decline from its $187-million debut, with a fall in ticket sales of around two thirds, and a $62.6-million weekend on the cards. The two new wide releases won’t come anywhere close to that, although they both come from production houses with excellent records in their particular niches.
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After an impressive opening week at the box office, Doctor-Strange in the Multiverse of Madness holds steady with its opening theater count of 4,534 theaters. The latest Marvel feature snagged an eye-opening $187.4 million in its opening weekend and currently enjoys a domestic cume of just shy of $223 million, with a worldwide total of $532 million. The film’s opening weekend places it comfortably in 11th on the record opening weekends chart, just ahead of Incredibles 2’s $182.4 million and just behind Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million.
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It is not a banner week for stellar new releases. Doctor Sleep is earning good reviews, but not great reviews. Sadly, it is award-worthy compared to most of the other new releases. Last Christmas is earning mixed reviews, but that’s to be expected for a romantic comedy. The less said about Midway or Playing with Fire’s reviews, the better. This weekend last year, The Grinch opened with $67 million, which is likely more than all four new films will open with this year. In fact, last year’s number two film, Bohemian Rhapsody, will likely earn more than any one film will earn this year. 2019 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year competition.
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Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year.
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Shazam topped expectations over the weekend, albeit by a small margin. However, it was the only new release to do this and the overall box office wasn’t particularly strong as a result. It did rise 6.2% from last weekend reaching $146 million. However, it wasn’t able to keep 2019’s winning streak alive in the year-over-year comparison, as this was 11% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2019 and now has an advantage of $500 million at $3.03 billion to $2.53 billion. If you are looking for good news, then the percent difference actually closed by a fraction of one percent. To call that good news is stretching.
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Shazam is the biggest release of the weekend and will almost certainly be the second biggest hit of the month. It also has some of the best reviews of the year so far. Pet Sematary should be in a solid second place, both in terms of box office dollars and reviews. Finally there’s The Best of Enemies, which is not only the smallest release on this week’s list, but it is also earning the weakest reviews. However, the biggest box office hit of the weekend will very likely be Avengers: Endgame, as tickets went on sale during the week and I suspect advanced ticket sales for that film will top everything coming out this week. (Early tracking for that film is nearing $300 million just for its opening weekend.) This weekend last year, A Quiet Place opened with just over $50 million, a little more than the next two films combined earned. Fortunately for 2019, there was a huge drop-off from the top three to the rest of the releases, so if we have better depth this year, then 2019 could continue its winning ways.
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For a while, the 1989 version of Pet Sematary was the highest grossing Stephen King film, in terms of raw dollars and not ticket sales. Is it also one of his best adaptations? Finally, is the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD release worth the upgrade?
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Dr. Louis Creed, who, after relocating with his wife Rachel and their two young children from Boston to rural Maine, discovers a mysterious burial ground hidden deep in the woods near the family’s new home. When tragedy strikes, Louis turns to his unusual neighbor, Jud Crandall, setting off a perilous chain reaction that unleashes an unfathomable evil with horrific consequences.
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We are still in that awkward time on the home market we have to deal with every year. It is too late for the summer blockbusters to come out on DVD / Blu-ray, but too soon for the fall hits or Oscar contenders. This means there’s very little in the way of contenders for Pick of the Week with only one release worth considering, a Canadian show, Frankie Drake Mysteries: Season 1. This does mean I get to give out a Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release.
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It is a slow week on the home market, as Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the only first run release. There are several horror films that are selling well enough to be worth talking about, but that is all. As far as the best of the best are concerned, the two I’m most interested in and I put in requests for screeners for both are BlacKkKlansman and Incredibles 2, but they are only coming out on VOD this week. I don’t like handing out Pick of the Week titles to VOD releases, so the real race is between The Americans: The Complete Final Season and Made In Abyss: Season One. Both are worth picking up, but I think there will be a full series Megaset for The Americans, so I’m giving the title to Made In Abyss.
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Usually this is a terrible time of year on the home market, because it is too late for the summer blockbusters, but too early for the holiday hits. However, the home market is terrible this week, because It comes out and it destroyed records at the box office and is scaring away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, its reviews were very good, so it is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its main competition are two classics, Inherit the Wind and Young Mr. Lincoln. All three are worth picking up, but I’m giving the title to It, because of its wider appeal.
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This is the week after Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which explains why there are so few new releases on this week’s home market release report. That said, there are some worth checking out. Haikyu!! is one of the best sports Anime titles ever made, but only the Premium Box Set is coming out this week and its just too expensive. Logan Lucky is one of the best wide releases of the year, but the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t have enough extras to be the Pick of the Week. I was tempted to give Pick of the Week to Long Time Running, but while it is amazing the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t come out till Friday. Likewise, I finally finished the review for MST3K: Season 11 to celebrate the renewal, but it came out way too long ago to be Pick of the Week. That leaves The Wrong Guy as my Pick of the Week. It has no reviews and the DVD / Blu-ray only has a commentary track, but it’s an underrated film in my opinion, and a Canadian film, so it gets Pick and Puck of the Week.
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It’s Halloween, so most people are concerned with how much Halloween candy they can eat before there’s not enough for trick or treaters, so they are not paying attention to new home market releases. At least I assume that’s why there are so few top-notch releases on this week’s list. The Dark Tower is the biggest release of the week, but it is not worth renting, and it is certainly not a Pick of the Week contender. So what is the Pick of the Week? There’s not a lot of competition, but I think any film history bull will loveDawson City: Frozen Time on DVD or Blu-ray.
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It is not a great week for home market releases. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is the biggest release of the week, but it is far from the best. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are all horror themed. Cult of Chucky is surprisingly good, especially for a franchise that’s lasted seven installments. Don't Torture A Duckling is a giallo film, and an important one in its director’s career. Up next is iZombie: Season Three, which is amazing, but it is always on the edge of being canceled. Finally, there's Vampyr: Criterion Collection Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Don't Torture A Duckling: Special Edition as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Goon: Last of the EnforcersBlu-ray Combo Pack earned Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release.
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There are two wide releases debuting this week: American Assassin and mother! Neither is expected to match It at the box office. In fact, both combined won’t match It’s sophomore stint. Neither will earn as much in total as It does over just this weekend. This weekend last year, Sully led the way with $21.65 million, while the threenewreleases earned about $26 million combined. It should earn more than those four films earned combined, giving 2017 its second massive win in a row.
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Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales.
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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August has begun, but I’m starting to think Summer has already ended. The Dark Tower was expected to be the big hit of the weekend, but its reviews are a lot weaker than anticipated. Kidnap is also opening wide and its early reviews were good, but that has changed as the day has gone on. Furthermore, it’s buzz is really quiet, so its box office chances are not good. Finally Detroit is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen all summer, but it is tough to go from a limited release to a wide release, so I’m not overly optimistic. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.68 million. It is very likely the entire box office will be less than $133.68 million this weekend. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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Ghostbusters is the biggest release of the week and the best first run release. Combined with its fully-loaded Blu-ray (extended edition), it is a Pick of the Week contender. There’s not much competition. The main competition is a new Collector's Edition Blu-ray for The Thing, but this is at least a double-dip, which hurts its value. There are a couple of smaller releases as well. In the end it was a literal coin toss to decide the Pick of the Week and Ghostbusters won.
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Captain Fantastic is the only film on this week’s list that I think will do well in theaters. There are some films that are earning better reviews, like Our Little Sister, but no film on this week’s list has the same buzz as this film does.
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It is a really bad week for the home market with a lot of filler on the first page of the new releases on Amazon.com. Fury is the biggest release, but there are not enough extras on the DVD or Blu-ray to be a contender for Pick of the Week. The Book of Life, on the other hand, has a loaded DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and is a contender. The only other real contender is The Kingdom of Dreams and Madness on DVD. In the end, I went with The Book of Life.
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Christmas day is the single biggest gift-giving day of the year... so it makes total sense that the week after Christmas is a terrible week to release any new DVDs or Blu-rays. The week is better than you would expect with a few notable releases, including The Equalizer, which earned just over $100 million during its theatrical run. It is also one of the best releases on this week's list and with solid extras, the Blu-ray is a contender for Pick of the Week. The other two contenders are Banshee: Season 2 on DVD or Blu-ray and Shameless: Season 4 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. It was a bit of a coin toss, but in the end I went with Shameless.
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The list this week is less detailed than usual for reasons I'm not going to go into detail about. I'm just going to say two words, "Food poisoning", and leave it at that. There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list that are earning good reviews and strong buzz. The Good Lie is the best limited release of the week in that regard, but I already talked about it on the weekend predictions, because I think it will reach the top ten. I don't think any of the films below will earn breakout success.
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This is not a good week for new releases on the home market. For one thing, the biggest first-run release is Blended (DVD or Blu-ray ComboPack) which is also one of the worst movies of the summer. There are many TV on DVD releases that helped pick up the slack somewhat, but it still feels like a shallow week. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are not many. The Normal Heart (DVD or Blu-ray) and Belle (Blu-ray) are the two most likely candidates, but I kind of want to give it to Gravity Falls: Even Stranger (DVD). In the end, I went with The Normal Heart.
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Carrie is a remake of of the 1976 film of the same name. The original Carrie is considered a classic horror film and the movie that brought Stephen King immense fame. Horror remakes have done poorly recently and this film was no different. However, was it a bad remake? Or has the public perception of horror remakes unfairly hurt this film at the box office? Does it do enough new to make it worth watching? Or is it yet another unnecessary remake?
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It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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Under the Dome is a book written by Stephen King in 2009. Reviews for the book were really good and it wasn't long before talk of an adaptation was in work. Since the book was so massive, it was clearly going to have to be a mini-series, but that's where things get a little complicated.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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