Although debuting in second place at the weekend box office, 80 for Brady again secures its place as the widest release of the week as it adds 27 locations from last week, becoming available 3,939 theaters. The comedy starring Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Sally Field and Rita Moreno debuted to $12.7 million in its opening weekend and currently enjoys a six day haul of $17.9 million. This week the film will not only have to contend with last weekend’s champ in Knock at the Cabin, but will see two newcomers arrive, along with the re-release of an epic feature from the 90s.
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It’s a shallow week in terms of the total number of releases, but a lot of films on this list are worth picking up. Rampage is the biggest and it is worth buying, if you are into popcorn action flicks. There are a lot of other releases that are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week contenders, like Disobedience, The Good Place: Season Two, etc. As for true Pick of the Week contenders, we have a limited selection and I’m going with Isle of Dogs on Blu-ray Combo Pack for that title.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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This is the week after Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which explains why there are so few new releases on this week’s home market release report. That said, there are some worth checking out. Haikyu!! is one of the best sports Anime titles ever made, but only the Premium Box Set is coming out this week and its just too expensive. Logan Lucky is one of the best wide releases of the year, but the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t have enough extras to be the Pick of the Week. I was tempted to give Pick of the Week to Long Time Running, but while it is amazing the DVD / Blu-ray doesn’t come out till Friday. Likewise, I finally finished the review for MST3K: Season 11 to celebrate the renewal, but it came out way too long ago to be Pick of the Week. That leaves The Wrong Guy as my Pick of the Week. It has no reviews and the DVD / Blu-ray only has a commentary track, but it’s an underrated film in my opinion, and a Canadian film, so it gets Pick and Puck of the Week.
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We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $1.65 million during previews, which is on the high end of expectations. This is good for this time of year, but its reviews suggests its legs will be on the low end of average, so a $16 million opening is the new target. Anything above that will be bode well for its chances for the next couple of weekends when there is little to no competition. The film reportedly cost $30 million to make, so it will need about $55 million domestically for Lionsgate’s share to top that. That’s probably out of reach. On the other hand, it will only need close to $100 million worldwide to break even eventually. This opening night suggests it will get there.
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There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again.
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There are two wide releases next weekend and it is a bit of a coin toss to determine which one will open in first place. At the moment, Logan Lucky’s early reviews are 100% positive. However, the director, Steven Soderbergh is trying a new release strategy and I don’t know how well that will work. On the other hand, The Hitman’s Bodyguard only has one review and it is 6 out of 10. I suspect a lot of its reviews will be in that range. That said, it is a more traditional release and has louder buzz due to a more aggressive ad campaign. It came down to a coin toss and The Hitman’s Bodyguard won, so it is the the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, consisting of a randomly selected previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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It was a great week at the box office, all things considered, with Identity Thief crushing expectations and all of the holdovers matching theirs. Only Side Effects struggled at the box office. This helped the overall box office climb 18% from last week to $104 million. This was 47% lower than the same weekend last year; however, this weekend last year was Valentine's weekend, which is one of the biggest non-holiday weekends of the year, so the comparison isn't fair. As I predicted last week, the lead 2013 had built up has evaporated and it is now 1.2% lower than 2012 at $1.05 billion to $1.06 billion. Since Valentine's Day is this Thursday, we should make up the difference quickly.
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There are two wide releases this week, Identity Thief and Side Effects. One of these films is earning amazing reviews and one of them is the overwhelming favorite to win the box office race. Identity Thief looks like it is going to finish in first place and it's only real competition is from last year. Last year the box office was led by a one-two punch of The Vow and Safe House, both of which earned more than $40 million. No movie is going to do that this year, so 2013 is going to lose big this week.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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