This graph shows Chloë Grace Moretz’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
One of the most beloved rivalries in history is reignited when Jerry moves into New York City’s finest hotel on the eve of “the wedding of the century,” forcing the event’s desperate planner to hire Tom to get rid of him. The ensuing cat and mouse battle threatens to destroy her career, the wedding and possibly the hotel itself. But soon, an even bigger problem arises: a diabolically ambitious staffer conspiring against all three of them.
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Suspiria earned good reviews, but not reviews that were good enough for most limited releases to thrive. Then it opened with a theater average of nearly $100,000. At that point, I thought it could be a surprise box office hit. Unfortunately, as soon as it tried to expand, its audience collapsed and it quickly exited theaters. Is the film as good as its opening weekend theater average? Or is there a legitimate reason it collapsed so quickly?
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It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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It’s a short list this week, which is common for this time of year. The only film earning a lot of buzz is The Miseducation of Cameron Post, but its reviews will likely prevent it from doing well in theaters. Night Comes On is earning the best reviews, but it is also playing on Video on Demand, so it too won’t do well in theaters. Maybe Nico, 1988 will be a surprise hit.
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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This week the biggest releases are busted Oscar-bait, Joy; a post-apocalyptic young adult adaptation, The 5th Wave; and the latest from Nicholas Sparks, The Choice. Joy is worth at least a rental. The other two are not. There are no major releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week, so that title will go to a smaller release, East Side Sushi on DVD. It has earned unanimously positive reviews, but no buzz.
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April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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Clouds of Sils Maria is a French co-production that earned a lot of praise in its native market. Not only was it nominated for the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but it earned six César Award nominations, including a win for Kristen Stewart for Best Supporting Actress. She became the first American actress to win a César. Unfortunately, despite this praise, the movie never caught on here in theaters earning just under $2 million in limited release. Granted, that's better than a lot of films manage, but still disappointing compared to the critical praise. Did it deserve better? Or was the film geared towards critics and won't appeal to the average moviegoer?
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Kingsman: The Secret Service is based on a comic book co-created by Mark Millar, who previously created the Kick-Ass comic book series. (On a side note, apparently there is a Hit Girl prequel comic book in the works and if that does well, there might be a Kick-Ass 3 movie that focuses more on Hit Girl. She was definitely the best part of the second movie.) It was a February release, so expectations were good, but not great. However, the film managed more than $125 million domestically and $400 million worldwide. That's fantastic. Is it as good as its box office numbers? Or did it thrive thanks to terrible competition?
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It is an excellent week for limited releases with two films earning stunning reviews and loud buzz: Clouds of Sils Maria and Ex Machina. I think the former has a better chance to expand significantly, but hopefully both will find audiences in theaters. There are also a number of other limited releases earning amazing reviews: About Elly, Black Souls, The Sisterhood of Night, etc. In fact, there are too many to think all of them will thrive.
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya earned 100% positive reviews and picked up an Oscar nomination. On the other hand, it only managed $1.5 million in limited release, so it wasn't a big enough film to win on Oscar night. Should the film earn a wider audience? Or is the movie aimed more at critics than the average moviegoer?
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Laggies is a film that opened in limited release earning much better buzz than most films do. It opened well, but struggled as it tried to expand. Then again, it is a romantic comedy and those rarely do well in limited release. Did it fail to find an audience because it is the wrong genre? Or did the word of mouth kill it?
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Christmas day is the single biggest gift-giving day of the year... so it makes total sense that the week after Christmas is a terrible week to release any new DVDs or Blu-rays. The week is better than you would expect with a few notable releases, including The Equalizer, which earned just over $100 million during its theatrical run. It is also one of the best releases on this week's list and with solid extras, the Blu-ray is a contender for Pick of the Week. The other two contenders are Banshee: Season 2 on DVD or Blu-ray and Shameless: Season 4 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. It was a bit of a coin toss, but in the end I went with Shameless.
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Last weekend, Birdman opened with Oscar-worthy reviews and it wasn't the only film that was expected to be a hit at the box office. This weekend, there are no such films. CitizenFour and Force Majeure are both earning Oscar buzz, but one's a documentary and the other is a foreign-language film, so neither are likely to expand significantly. This leaves Laggies as the film with the loudest buzz, even if its reviews suggest it might not thrive in limited release.
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The Equalizer and The Boxtrolls opens wide this week. They are an action film and a family flick and the last weekend of September has been kind to both genres. The Equalizer could become the fastest opening film of the month, which might be enough to get it all the way to $100 million during its entire run. The Boxtrolls, on the other hand, is a Stop-motion animated film, which rarely rises above the midlevel hit. This weekend last year, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opened with $34.02 million, which is right in the middle of the expected range for The Equalizer, plus the depth is better this year, so 2014 should win the year-over-year competition.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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Carrie is a remake of of the 1976 film of the same name. The original Carrie is considered a classic horror film and the movie that brought Stephen King immense fame. Horror remakes have done poorly recently and this film was no different. However, was it a bad remake? Or has the public perception of horror remakes unfairly hurt this film at the box office? Does it do enough new to make it worth watching? Or is it yet another unnecessary remake?
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There are two wide releases this week, Carrie and Escape Plan. However, neither film is earning critical praise and neither film is expected to be a breakout hit. There is a third film opening semi-wide, The Fifth Estate, but despite being clearly made for Oscars, its reviews are worse than the two more mainstream releases. It looks like Gravity will have no trouble earning the hat trick at the box office. It should also earn more than last year's winner, Paranormal Activity 4. Unfortunately, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013 will likely lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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Movie 43 earned some of the worst reviews of the year so far, with many critics calling it the worst movie they've ever seen. When I got the chance to review the movie, I jumped at it. I had to know if it was really as bad as its reviews. It couldn't possible be, right?
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There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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