June 14th, 2016
It is a much slower week than it was last time. In fact, the only two reviews this week were for releases that came out last week. That doesn't mean we don't have any good releases and there are a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Of these, Hello, My Name is Doris is the one I'm most interested in buying and the Blu-ray, while not loaded with extras, is the Pick of the Week. I'm also giving an honorary Puck of the Week to Dark Matter: Season 1, which is a Canadian Sci-fi series.
(On a side note, Amazon's list of new releases is a mess with a bunch of Game of Thrones and Star Trek titles, most of which don't even have images. This made sorting through the new releases a lot harder.)
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April 1st, 2016
God's Not Dead 2 started its box office run with $400,000 during its Thursday previews. This is a little lower than Risen ($425,000) and The Young Messiah ($475,000), but faith-based films are unpredictable enough that we can't use this result to make any clear predictions going forward. Perhaps predictions were a little generous and $11 million is more likely. We will know by this time tomorrow.
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March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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March 22nd, 2016
At the beginning of the month, it was widely accepted that The Divergent Series: Allegiant would open in first place. However, two things happened to prevent that. Firstly, Zootopia not only opened faster, but its legs were much longer. Secondly, Allegiant failed to match even lowered expectations. This left Zootopia with an easy first place win over the weekend. However, it wasn't the only pleasant surprise, as Miracles from Heaven opened faster than expected. The overall box office slipped 3.3% from last weekend to $131 million. It was also 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by an 8.4% margin at $2.33 billion to $2.15 billion.
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March 15th, 2016
The weekend box office was mostly positive with both Zootopia and 10 Cloverfield Lane finishing on the very high end of expectations over the weekend. On the other hand, the less said about the other new wide releases the better. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, down 17% to $135 million, but that's not a bad decline after Zootopia's monster opening. Compared to last year, the box office was up 2.5%, which isn't a great improvement, but any win now increases the chances 2016 will remain competitive with 2015 when we reach the point that Furious 7, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World opened last year. Speaking of the year-over-year comparison, 2016's lead over 2015 slipped to 8.7% at $2.15 billion to $1.98 billion. That is still an impressive lead and one that will hopefully grow by the end of the month.
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March 13th, 2016
Zootopia is headed to another big win at the box office this weekend, with a modest 33% decline from last weekend keeping it well ahead of a pack of new releases. Its $50 million gross this time around takes it to $142.6 million in total domestically. With $288.7 million in the bank internationally, including over $100 million in China by the end of the weekend, Disney looks to have struck gold again. A sequel, theme park tie-ins and merchandizing seem likely, although Disney has so much of that going on already, what with Star Wars, Marvel, its Princess lines, and Pixar, that this might actually be more of a niche for them. (A half-billion-dollar-and-counting niche. Nice work if you can get it.)
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March 11th, 2016
10 Cloverfield Lane had the best results during its Thursday previews with $1.8 million in 2,500 theaters. This is the same as Insidious: Chapter 3 managed last year during its previews. That film opened with $22.69 million over the full weekend, which is a good target for 10 Cloverfield Lane to aim for. With amazing reviews, $25 million is within reach. We will know more tomorrow when we get Friday's estimates.
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March 10th, 2016
There are four widish releases coming out this week, but only two of them are opening truly wide, while only one of them has any real box office power. That film is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is the pseudo-sequel to Cloverfield. Very few people think it will match its predecessor, but it should open in a solid second place. That leaves Zootopia in the perfect spot to repeat on the top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, Cinderella led the way with $67.88 million. This is more than any one single film will make this year. However, the second biggest hit of last year was Run All Night at barely more than $11 million and no other film earned substantially more than $6 million. Perhaps the depth from 2016 will help it win in the year-over-year comparison. I'm not overly bullish that will happen, but we can't rule it out either.
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March 1st, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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