October 1st, 2013
This list is a little short and a little late, because WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THE INTERNET? The past three days, the internet has been slow as hell. There are a number of interesting releases coming out this week, several of them have screeners that are on their way. Unfortunately, only one screener did arrive on time. Fortunately, it was The Little Mermaid on Blu-ray Combo Pack and it, or the 3D Combo Pack, are worthy of Pick of the Week.
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September 26th, 2013
World War Z was one of the most anticipated films of the summer, as it was based on a popular book and starred Brad Pitt, one of the biggest movie stars around. However, there were hints of problems, including extensive reshoots. In the end, it cost $190 million to make and while it pulled in more than $500 million worldwide, it will likely need a little help on the home market to break even. Will it break even on the home market? Or is it a flawed execution to a really good idea?
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September 17th, 2013
It's kind of a bad week for screeners, as there are four or so that either didn't arrive on time, or still are not here. This includes the biggest release of the week, World War Z, as well as a number of other releases I'm really looking forward to (Behind the Candelabra, Nashville: The Complete First Season, Sofia the First: Ready to Be a Princess, etc.). World War Z should lead the charts, both on DVD and on Blu-ray, but I'm not sure if I will agree with the pros or the cons on this one. Fortunately, some screeners did arrive, including the final season of Leverage. While I'm not happy this is the final season of the show, I'm very happy with the quality level for Season Five and it is the Pick of the Week.
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September 4th, 2013
The Labor Day long weekend is over and pre-weekend predictions were spot on, at least when it came to the top-two films. One Direction: This is Us opened in first place on Friday, but by Sunday had fallen to fifth place, allowing Lee Daniels' The Butler to remain on top, if you go by the four-day weekend. There were a few surprises this weekend, including Instructions Not Included. I hoped it would do well, but I never imaged it would do this well. Overall the weekend was strong at $125 million over the three-day weekend, which was 14% more than last weekend. Over four days, the total box office was $160 million. This was 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 holds a 0.9% lead over 2012 at 7.44 billion to $7.37 billion.
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September 1st, 2013
Hollywood's Summer ends this weekend with a suitably back-to-school winner in the form of One Direction: This is Us. The 3D concert movie will pick up $17 million Friday-Sunday, largely on the back of an impressive $8.9 million gross on Saturday. While that won't set it up to challenge Justin Bieber or Miley Cyrus among the top grossers in this particular sub-genre, it does show the solid business model for 3D films that cater to pop fans. Performances among other films playing this weekend were more varied.
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July 28th, 2013
The Wolverine will have a very solid, but far from spectacular debut this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $55 million total will give it the tenth-biggest weekend of the year, and the best for Fox, but it is falling well behind comparable films like World War Z (which opened with $66 million) and Star Trek Into Darkness ($70 million). Good reviews and lessened competition as the Summer season comes to a close will help it a bit, but it looks like $100 million and out for the franchise, unless its $86.1 million international debut turns into a $400 million global run.
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July 21st, 2013
This is a Summer packed with big-budget proto-franchise films, which makes it a risky season for the studios. Predictably enough, we've had some success stories among them, like Man of Steel and World War Z, and some disasters (with The Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim standing out). Overall, the batting average for these films is running around 50%, which makes it a particularly dicey proposition to have two of them opening in the same weekend.
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July 9th, 2013
The July 4th long weekend resulted in a delay for some of the final box office numbers, but now that we have them, it was worth the wait. Despicable Me 2 scored an easy win with The Lone Ranger coming in a very, very distant second place. Fortunately, Despicable Me 2 made enough to compensate and the overall box office numbers were very strong. Over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend, $227 million was brought in. This is 19% higher than last weekend and 16% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. (Because July 4th falls on a different day each week, there's no way to compare the full holiday year-over-year.) Year-to-date, 2013 has earned $5.53 billion, which is 2.1% lower than last year's pace. It would only take a couple of solid wins for 2013 to earn the $118 million needed to catch up to 2012, but with The Dark Knight Rises looming ahead, that seems unlikely for now.
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July 4th, 2013
It's July 4th, which means it is the Independence Day long weekend, one of the busiest weekends of the year. There are two wide releases looking to compete with the holdovers for box office dollars, but it is clear that Despicable Me 2 has far more box office potential than The Lone Ranger has. Meanwhile, Kevin Hart: Let-Me-Explain should grab a spot in the top ten. Meanwhile, Monsters University, The Heat, and the rest of the holdovers should help the overall box office climb higher than last year.
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July 2nd, 2013
As expected, Monsters University remained the top draw on the weekend box office chart. The Heat performed a little better than expected, but White House Down struggled. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $190 million over the weekend. More importantly, this is 9% lower than the same weekend last year, meaning 2013 fell a little further behind 2012's pace. The difference is only $78 million or 1.5% at $5.18 billion to $5.26 billion, which is much better than it was earlier this year, so hopefully we can close that gap before too long.
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June 30th, 2013
As expected, Monsters University will retain the box office crown this weekend with Disney projecting a thoroughly respectable $46.2 million and a decline of 44% from its opening -- good by today's standards, and particularly good for a sequel (albeit one whose target demographic wasn't born when the original came out). The real action this weekend, though, is among the other films in the top five. The Heat will open with a robust $40 million or so, per Fox, which compares favorably to its forebear Bridesmaids' opening of $26.2 million in 2011 (although a fairer comparison might be the $41.6 million debut of The Hangover 3 in May). Three male-oriented action movies fill out the next three spots on the chart, and the competition was too much for White House Down.
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June 28th, 2013
The final weekend of June has two wide releases that should be in a very close battle at the box office. The Heat and White House Down could finish within $1 million of each other over the weekend. Unfortunately, neither one really has a shot at first place. It looks like Monsters University will have no trouble repeating as champion at the box office. Comparisons to last year are a little complicated. The new releases last year were stronger than the new releases this year; however, this year's holdovers are better. So will 2013 win in the year-over-year comparison? Not sure, but it could be really close.
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June 25th, 2013
You can tell it's summertime, because the two wide releases topped the per theater chart this weekend. Monsters University earned first place on both the overall chart and the per theater average chart with an average of $20,587. World War Z placed second with $18,412. Unfinished Song earned an average of $12,864 in two theaters. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was 20 Feet from Stardom, which earned an average of $10,744 in six theaters.
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June 25th, 2013
It was a great week at the box office with both new releases, Monsters University and World War Z, topping predictions. The overall box office rose 18% to $240 million, which was the eighth biggest weekend of all time. The box office was 46% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 is still behind 2012, but now by less than 1% at $4.88 billion to $4.93 billion. Maybe by the end of the month, 2013 will have completely caught up to 2012. The new releases will have to be stronger than anticipated, but it isn't out of the question.
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June 23rd, 2013
Pixar will record its 14th consecutive number one opening this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Monsters University is set to posted about $82 million, according to Disney, which places it comfortably ahead of zombie actioner World War Z on $66 million. That start is a big relief for Paramount, which spent $190 million on the film and could have lost a lot of money if it failed. It will still need good legs and lots of overseas income to record a profit.
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June 20th, 2013
There are two potential monster hits opening this weekend: Monsters University and World War Z. Not only should both of those films score with moviegoers, but Man of Steel's sophomore stint should be strong as well resulting in a powerful weekend box office. This weekend last year was led by Brave with $66.32 million, a figure Monsters University should top. Meanwhile this year has a lot more depth at the box office than last year did, so 2013 should earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison. This is great news, because 2013 is still far behind 2012.
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June 13th, 2013
June continues next weekend with two potential blockbuster releases: Monsters University and World War Z. Both are earning strong reviews and both will have strong marketing behind them. It seems likely that Monsters University will open faster and is the better choice for target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Monsters University.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Burn Notice: Season Six on DVD, as well as $30 of merchandize from 5 Second Films. (That will be two T-shirts of your choice, or a T-shirt and a shot glass pack, or a poster and two shot glasses, or a hoodie, etc.)
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Burn Notice: Season Six on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
In the meantime, check out the 5 Second Films Kickstarter.
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June 2nd, 2013
May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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