Home Market Releases for May 21st, 2019

May 21st, 2019

It is a very strange week on the home market. There are two $100 million hits, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and The Upside, a midlevel hit, Isn’t it Romantic, and then practically nothing. The week’s releases are more top-heavy than any other week I can remember. Fortunately, the biggest release of the week, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, is also one of the best wide releases of the year so far and it is easily the Pick of the Week. In fact, it would likely have won that title even if it was a busier than average week. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: 2019 Continues its Slump

February 12th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part missed expectations over the weekend, leading to yet another disappointing overall performance at the box office. Granted, the box office did climb by 55% from last weekend to $112 million. However, last weekend was the worst weekend at the box office in more than a year. Additionally, $112 million is still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $1.01 billion; however, this is still 15% lower than last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2011, in terms of raw dollars. If we go by ticket sales, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find a slower start to the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lego Tops Chart, but Fails to Match the Original

February 10th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part reportedly cost $99 million to make and it will earn that much domestically, so it will very likely make a profit and Warner Bros. will be fine. That said, it is estimated to only manage $34.4 million over the weekend, which is about 40% lower than expectations and almost exactly 50% lower than the first film opened with. Its reviews are 84% positive, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore, so it really should have done better than this. This hopefully isn’t a sign that the overall box office is unhealthy, but just a sign that WB has pushed the franchise too much too soon. Internationally, the film started with $18.1 million in 63 markets. This includes a first place, $5.2 million on 1,301 screens in the U.K. It also managed first place in Russia with $1.7 million on 2,493 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in Brazil with just $707,000 on 854 screens, which is the weakest start in the franchise. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Receive a Cold Welcome

February 9th, 2019

Friday’s box office can best be described as “What happened?” Thursday previews looked promising, but then the Friday numbers arrived and it looks like most of the new releases will miss expectations. This includes The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, which opened with $8.5 million on Friday, $9.1 million including its paid previews from January. This is well below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $32 million over the weekend. Its reviews are 85% positive, but its early CinemaScore is just A minus, which isn’t particularly good for a family film. Next weekend is a long weekend, so I think it will still get to $100 million domestically, which is more than it cost to make. However, a lot of people thought it had a real shot at $200 million domestically, so this is a real disappointment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Lego Save 2019?

February 8th, 2019

I’m of two minds when it comes to this weekend. On the one hand, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be the biggest hit of the year so far and could be the first true monster hit of the year. On the other hand, it might not be enough to keep pace with last year. Only one other new release, What Men Want, has a shot at $20 million, while the other two releases, Cold Pursuit and The Prodigy, might not reach $10 million. This weekend last year, wasn’t quite as strong when it came to new releases, but it had a massive advantage when it came to holdovers. I think 2019 has a small advantage here, but I’ve been burned before, so I won’t be too surprised if 2019 loses in the year-over-year comparison, again. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Super Bowl Wasn’t Super and Neither was the Box Office

February 5th, 2019

The Super Bowl broke records, but not in a good way. (Lowest scoring Super Bowl... ever.) Even so, the Super Bowl still had a devastating effect on the box office leading to arguably the worst Super Bowl weekend box office results since 1999. More on that year later. As expected, Glass earned first place on the weekend box office chart with $9.55 million, but it is never a good sign when the number one film earns less than $10 million. The best / only new release was Miss Bala, which only managed $6.86 million. Overall, the box office fell 27% from last week down to just $72 million. Hopefully this is the worst weekend of the entire year. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $866 million, which is $160 million or 16% lower than 2018’s pace. This is the worst start in terms of raw dollars since 2012 and the worst start in terms of tickets sold since 1999. However, the box office will pick up in March and while I don’t think we’ll match last year’s record pace, we also won’t see a once in a decade slump either. More...

Weekend Estimates: Miss Bala hits the Glass Ceiling

February 3rd, 2019

The weekend estimates have Glass remaining on top of the chart with $9.54 million over the weekend, giving it a running tally of $88.66 million after three weeks of release. It is a lock to get to $100 million domestically, although it will likely be pushed out of the top five before it gets there. Internationally, the film is earning $12.2 million over the weekend for totals of $110.3 million internationally and $199.0 million worldwide. It will soon become the first film released in 2019 to get to $200 million worldwide and it isn’t done yet. More...

Friday Estimates: Friday Falls In Line

February 2nd, 2019

It looks like it will be a weekend to forget. In fact, if Friday is a reliable omen, then this will be the worst Super Bowl weekend at the box office in more than a decade. The only good news is, this was more or less expected. For example, Glass remained in first place with $2.76 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $9 million on $10 million. Even if it hits the high end, it will still be within a rounding error of expectations. Get ready to read that phrase again a couple of more times this story. More...

Weekend Predictions: Super Bowl Looks to Bowl Over the Competition

January 31st, 2019

It’s Super Bowl weekend, which is historically one of the worst weekends all year long and it doesn’t look like this year will be an exception. Miss Bala is the only true wide release of the week, while They Shall Not Grow Old is expanding wide enough that it could grab a spot in the top five. Glass should remain in top spot, likely with less than $10 million. It’s not going to be a good weekend at the box office. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Winchester opened with just over $9 million and two holdovers earned $10 million. 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but because both weekends were so soft, the gap shouldn’t be too large. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: January Ends on a Quiet Note

January 29th, 2019

2019 has been off to a slow start and that certainly didn’t change this past weekend. Glass and the holdovers held up better than expected, but the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, both went nowhere. This led to the weekend box office haul falling below the $100 million mark at just $97 million. This is 25% lower than last weekend and 31% lower than the same weekend last year, when Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. Year-to-date, 2019 is already down by $100 million; $764 million to $871 million and it’s not going to get better in February. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass and Others put a Ceiling on New Releases

January 27th, 2019

Glass bounced back after a weak Friday earning an estimated $19.05 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $73.59 million. This is even better than our original prediction. It’s practically guaranteed to get to $100 million domestically, while it is doing a little better internationally. This weekend it pulled in $23.6 million for a two-week total of $89.1 million. The film has yet to open in China and when it does, it will get past $250 million worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: 2019 Continues its Cold Start

January 26th, 2019

It was a Friday to forget, and it’s going to be another bad weekend at the box office. Glass fell 69% from its opening Friday to $4.98 million this Friday. This is a sharper decline than anticipated, but even so, it should still earn a little more than $16 million over the full weekend, keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically. In other words, while this is a faster decline than predicted, it is not so fast that anyone should panic. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like it will be a Serene Weekend

January 25th, 2019

The weekend after a long weekend is rarely a good weekend to release a movie and there are only two films attempting this challenge this week. The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action family film and those rarely do well at the box office. Serenity is... a movie... that... If what I read about the film’s surprise twist is correct, then this film could earn a D or worse from CinemaScore. Glass will remain at the top of the box office, unless something truly strange happens. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Glass Wins, Dragon Ball was Super

January 22nd, 2019

It was a mixed weekend with Glass missing admittedly high expectations, but a lot of the rest of the top five thrived. This includes Dragon Ball Super: Broly, which wasn’t even expected to open in the top five. Overall, the box office rose 8.6% from last weekend to $130 million. This is 5.0% less than the same weekend last year, which means 2019’s losing streak continues. This is more disappointing, as the misalignment in holidays gave 2019 a huge advantage this weekend. Year-to-date, 2019 is below 2018 by $100 million. In fact, 2019 is off to the worst start since 2012 or 2011, depending on if you take ticket price inflation into account. That said, it is still very early in the year and there are several nearly guaranteed monster hits on the way. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass Cracks, Still Tops Chart

January 20th, 2019

Glass’s box office potential has continued to drop and it is now estimated to earn $40.59 million over the three-day weekend and $47.06 million over four. The three-day opening is barely ahead of Split’s opening weekend and it is certainly lower in terms of tickets sold. Furthermore, Glass’s reviews and B-rating from CinemaScore are clearly already having a negative effect on the film’s legs. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and while Universal is only handling the domestic run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers. The film’s international run is being handled by Disney, mostly, and they reported $48.5 million in 55 markets. The only market the film hasn’t opened in is China, which is the only international market Disney is not handling the distribution. According to Disney, the film is 13% ahead of Split internationally, but again, given its weaker reviews and its CinemaScore, its legs will likely be short enough that Glass will finish with less than its predecessor. Then again, it cost just $20 million to make and will likely hit $100 million worldwide on Monday, so everyone involved will be happy with this result. More...

Friday Estimates: Glass is Looking a Little More Fragile

January 19th, 2019

It looks like Glass will open on the low end of expectations with $16.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $50 million over the four-day weekend. Its reviews are clearly not helping, while the film only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is down from the B plus Split earned. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and Universal’s share of the opening weekend will be more than that. Unless the film’s advertising budget is unreasonably large, then the movie will break even just on its domestic numbers. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Glass Shatter Franchise Records?

January 17th, 2019

It is MLK day long weekend, the first long weekend of the year. On the one hand, there’s only one new release trying to take advantage of that. On the other hand, that one film is Glass, which is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month. In fact, it could earn more over the next four days than any other January film earns in total. On a side note, Dragon Ball Super: Broly opened on Wednesday earning $7 million. It won’t earn that much over the weekend, but depending on how many screenings it has in how many theaters over the weekend, it could sneak into the top ten. That would be something amazing for Anime. This weekend last year was the weekend after MLK Day, so the misalignment in holidays should give 2019 its first win of the year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Upside Surprises Landing on Top Earning STX its First First Place

January 15th, 2019

The first major surprise of the year happened over the weekend, as The Upside beat expectations earning first place with $20.36 million. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend dropping to $119 million. This is 25% lower than the same weekend last year, but that was MLK Day long weekend, so this kind of difference was expected. More...

Weekend Estimates: Upside Surprises as Box Office Slows

January 13th, 2019

It wasn’t exactly a great weekend at the box office, but The Upside was the rare exception. The film is estimated to open with $19.59 million. The audiences clearly liked the film better than critics did, as its reviews are mixed, while it got an A from CinemaScore. This makes sense, as the most common complaint from critics were the clichés. The average moviegoer only sees one movie in a theater every other month, whereas the average critic will see two or more movies a week. Clichés are a lot less tolerable when you see them ten times as often as part of your job. The film’s estimates are much better than its predictions and great for a film that cost $37.5 million to make. Furthermore, the news is even better for STX Entertainment, as they didn’t spend nearly that much on the domestic rights, so they will be in the black very soon. More...

Friday Estimates: Box Office is Turned Upside Down

January 12th, 2019

The Upside surprised box office analysts with $6.95 million on Friday, knocking Aquaman out of first place on the daily chart. This is very likely enough to knock it out of first place on the weekend chart as well, becoming STX’s first number one hit. Most critics didn’t like the movie, but few hated it. Audiences, on the other hand, loved the movie, giving it an A from CinemaScore. If this translates into long legs, then it could earn first place with as much as $20 million, but $19 million is more likely at this point. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dog-gone-it

January 11th, 2019

The Upside was the surprise winner of last night’s previews, as it earned $1.1 million. Its reviews are not going to help its legs, but perhaps its word-of-mouth will be better. We will have to wait for the CinemaScore for that, but I think it will top our $12 million prediction, which is good news for STX Entertainment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Dog’s Home at the Top of the Box Office?

January 10th, 2019

There are three or four new releases that should reach the top ten, depending on how you look at things. A Dog’s Way Home is by far the biggest of these and has a not unreasonable shot at opening in first place. I think Aquaman will defend its crown, but it should at least be close. The Upside is the only other new release with a better than 50/50 shot of earning a spot in the top five. Replicas, on the other hand, is widely expected to bomb. The last “new” release is On the Basis of Sex, which is expanding nearly truly wide and it has an outside chance of earning a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was MLK Day long weekend. If 2019 doesn’t lose the year-over-year comparison by more than 20%, then it will be a reason to celebrate. More...

Preview: January

January 1st, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases. More...

The Upside Trailer

November 30th, 2018

Comedy starring Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart, and Nicole Kidman opens January 11 ... Full Movie Details.

The true story of the unexpected friendship between Phillip Lacasse, a Park Avenue billionaire left paralyzed after a hang-gliding accident, and ex-con Dell Scott, in need of a job and a fresh start. From worlds apart, Phillip and Dell form an unlikely bond, bridging their differences and gaining invaluable wisdom in the process, giving each man a renewed sense of passion for all of life’s possibilities. More...