June 20th, 2012
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted held firm on top of the international chart with $52.82 million on 11,633 screens in 43 markets for a total of $158.43 million internationally and $277.44 million worldwide. It fell just 36% in Russia for a weekend haul of $10.09 million on 1,830 screens over the weekend and a total of $36.00 million after two. Quite frankly, this is a stunning hold. Russia is known for steep declines (drop-offs greater than 60% are the norm). At this pace, the film could top The Avengers as the biggest hit in the market this year by this time next week. In Mexico, it made $5.03 million on 572 screens over the weekend for a total of $14.82 million after two, while in Brazil it managed $4.19 million on 870 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.53 million after two. In both of those markets the film remained in top spot. On the other hand, it slipped to second place during its second weekend in France down 45% to $4.41 million on 685 screens over the weekend for a total of $13.17 million so far. This is about on par with its run here. With many, many major markets left ahead of it, the film should have little trouble reaching more major milestones, while it should break even before it reaches the lucrative home market.
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June 12th, 2012
True Blood was the only major release on this week's DVD sales chart crushing newcomers and holdovers alike. It sold 717,000 units / $21.52 million during its opening week, which is fantastic for a TV on DVD release.
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June 7th, 2012
New releases took the top four spots in the Blu-ray sales chart. Red Tails took first place with 446,000 units / $10.25 million for a 48% opening week Blu-ray share. The film was expensive to make and it didn't perform well enough in theaters, but its home market numbers are better.
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June 5th, 2012
After a major change on the back end of site, we have two weeks of home market numbers to get to, starting with the week ending on May 20th. New releases dominated the chart taking the top three spots and four of the top six. The Grey earned first place with 360,000 units / $6.12 million. This is a fine start given its theatrical run, but not an exceptional one.
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May 22nd, 2012
It's a strange week on the home market. There are not a lot of films on this week's list, but there are more first run releases than normal, while we are also moving into the summer TV schedule, so a lot of those shows are getting home market releases this week, in preparation for their upcoming seasons. The list is top-heavy, not very deep, and lacks contenders for for Pick of the Week. The Secret World of Arrietty is the best release and the Blu-ray looks amazing, but there are not a lot of extras to be found. Likewise, Sherlock: Season Two is a great show, but the DVD and Blu-ray don't have a lot of extras, plus the price-per-minute is rather high for a TV on DVD release. I have high hopes for The Woman in Black, but the screener is late. In the end I'm going with The Secret World of Arrietty, but the other two are Honorable Mentions.
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March 21st, 2012
John Carter's international run is heavenly, at least compared to its domestic run. It's weak compared to its production budget. This weekend it added $40.7 million in 54 markets for a total of $126.10 million. It opened huge in China with $10.4 million, while it held on reasonably well in Russia earning $6.60 million on 939 screens over the weekend for a total of $26.10 million after two. At this pace, getting to $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide might be difficult. And that would be the minimum needed to save face.
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March 14th, 2012
John Carter absolutely dominated the international box office; however, this is because of how wide it opened, not how strong its opening was. Over the weekend, it earned $66.12 million on 18,890 screens in 51 markets for a total opening of $68.93 million. Its per screen average was a mere $3,500, which is low for this type of release. There were some highlights, led by a first place, $16.55 million opening on 939 screens in Russia. It also opened in first place in Mexico with $3.42 million on 1,144, which is better than Journey 2: The Mysterious Island opened with earlier in the year. On the other hand, it's first place opening in the U.K. was more subdued at $3.07 million on 456 screens.
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March 7th, 2012
It was a slow week on the international chart with only three films that topped $10 million. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island was the best, earning $15.7 million on 6,381 screens in 52 markets for a total of 185.6 million internationally and $270.8 million worldwide. It has now topped the original worldwide as well as internationally. The film opened in Germany with a mediocre total of $1.68 million on 424 screens. However, it is already a success, so the studio shouldn't complain about that result. The film has yet to open in Japan, but when it does, it should be above $300 million worldwide.
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February 29th, 2012
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance rose to first place with $21.44 million on 4,889 screens in 28 markets for a two-week total of $45.74 million. This week it opened in a trio of major markets, starting with Russia where it debuted in first place with $8.18 million on 913 screens. By comparison, Ghost Rider made $7.77 million in total in that market, so this is a great start. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany with $2.32 million on 428, which is roughly on par with its predecessor's opening. But it only managed third place in Spain with $1.16 million on 439. By comparison, the film made $3.12 million during its opening there. Mixed results make it difficult to predict the film's final box office number, but I think it is safe to say there won't be a Ghost Rider 3 any time soon.
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February 28th, 2012
There was a surprise winner at the box office this weekend as Act of Valor opened on the very high end of expectations while Good Deeds did the opposite. Overall, more films missed expectations than met them and this led to a 14% drop-off from last week. However, the total haul of $134 million was still 23% higher than the same weekend last year, which stretches the winning streak to eight weeks. Or to put it another way, every single weekend this year has been higher than the corresponding weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of last year's pace by 18% at $1.62 billion to $1.38 billion. There is some bad news going forward, as I don't think March 2012 is as strong as March 2011.
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February 22nd, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island remained on top of the international chart with $27.5 million on 8,249 screens in 43 markets for a total of $130.0 million internationally. By comparison, its predecessor made $140 million in total. This week, The Mysterious Island opened in second place in France with $2.71 million on 436 screens, while it managed first place in Spain with $2.10 million on 468. The film is almost at $200 million worldwide, and with several major markets left to go, it should have no trouble getting to $250 million and maybe even $300 million.
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February 21st, 2012
Two of the three wide releases missed expectations and the best of the bunch, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, only managed third place over the weekend. However, the overall box office still pulled out a win in the year-over-year comparison. The box office did fall 19% from last weekend to $156 million, but this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is much more important. The lead over last year grew to over $200 million at $1.46 billion to $1.23 billion, or 18%. Granted, it is still too early to celebrate, but so far the year-over-year numbers are fantastic while next weekend it looks even better.
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February 19th, 2012
A tight battle is brewing for box office honors this weekend, based on the studios' Sunday estimates. Safe House is currently ahead, with Universal predicting a $24 million 3-day weekend. The Vow runs in second place with $23.6 million according to Sony, which also has Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in third place with $22 million. Adding to the uncertainty, the most family-friendly film in the top ten, Journey 2: Mysterious Island is only a few million back, with Warner Bros. projecting it will make $20.1 million through Sunday. Overall, it looks as though Safe House will win both the 3-day and 4-day races, although Journey 2 could win Monday.
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February 16th, 2012
We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win.
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February 13th, 2012
Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic.
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February 10th, 2012
Next weekend, the widest release of the week will be This Means War; however, while the film opens on Friday, it has previews on Tuesday, Valentine's Day. I don't know how this will effect the film's box office numbers. I'm not even sure Tuesday's numbers will be kept separate from the weekend numbers. Because of this added complication, we are going to use Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Rebecca on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Spellbound on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, an additional entrant will be chosen and they will win a copy of Notorious on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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