September 19th, 2012
It was a bad week for new releases, at least in terms of quality. How bad? The Hunger Games was able to return to first place on the DVD sales chart. It sold an additional 256,000 units / $5.11 million over the week for a total of 5.38 million units / $93.21 million. It has now sold more units than any other DVD in 2012, but it is still a little behind Breaking Dawn, Part 1 in terms of revenue.
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September 12th, 2012
Battleship was one of four new releases to reach the top five on the Blu-ray Sales Chart this week scoring first place with 584,000 units / $11.67 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 61%, which is fantastic.
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September 12th, 2012
There were a ton of new releases on this week's DVD sales chart with four in the top five and nine in the top eleven. We have a new number one release, The Lucky One, with 515,000 units sold and $7.70 million in revenue generated during its first week of release. This is a solid opening for a midlevel hit.
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August 28th, 2012
We are clearly in TV on DVD season on the home market as there are five TV on DVD releases among the top six selling releases, with Battleship being the only first run release to break up the TV on DVD dominance. There are many such releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week: Boardwalk Empire: Season Two on Blu-ray, Homeland: Season One on Blu-ray, Once Upon a Time: Season One on Blu-ray, and The Walking Dead: Season Two on Blu-ray. However, in the end I went with The Pirates! Band of Misfits on 3D Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Monsieur Lazhar on DVD or Blu-ray earns a rarely awarded Puck of the Week.
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May 15th, 2012
For the first time ever, a film earned more than $100 million during its sophomore stint. The Avengers again led the way at the box office and again broke records. It wasn't all good news as Dark Shadows missed modest expectations and the overall box office slid 34% from last weekend to $171 million. That is still 22% higher than the same weekend last year, while 2012's lead over 2011 grew to 17.5% at $3.83 billion to $3.26 billion. I don't know how long The Avengers can keep 2012 ahead in the year-over-year comparison, but it sure is helping build up its lead in the short term.
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May 10th, 2012
There is one wide release this week, Dark Shadows, plus a busy slate of limited releases. However, the only film most people are talking about is The Avengers. There is a chance that by the end of business this weekend, it will be the biggest hit of the year, overtaking The Hunger Games. Even if Dark Shadows makes $50 million over the weekend, it will be a mere footnote at the box office compared to The Avengers' sophomore stint. Dark Shadows probably won't match the combined openings of last year's two wide releases, Bridemaids and Priest 3D (about $41 million), but it could be close. However, since there are some that are predicting The Avengers will earn more than last year's top five earned (about $110 million), 2012 should easily walk away with the win.
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May 7th, 2012
Expectations for The Avengers were high, record-breakingly high among some people. However, as high as they were, reality was higher. Records were not just broken, but destroyed beyond recognition. The overall box office was in the top five combined biggest weekends with $258 million, which was 134% higher than last weekend. 134%. It was 55% higher than the same weekend last year. Like I've said before, this kind of year-over-year change usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. The victory erases all of the losses from April, and then some, giving 2012 a $500 million lead over 2011 at $3.58 billion to $3.08 billion. This is an amazing start for the summer and with with roughly 25 million people seeing movies this weekend, upcoming films got a ton of free publicity and added hype.
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May 3rd, 2012
The Avengers. That's all that really matters. The Avengers has no competition from any film playing this weekend and will finish in first place by a margin of well over $100 million. It has no competition with any film that opened last year and it might beat Thor's opening by $100 million. Its only real competition comes from The Hunger Games for biggest opening of the year at $152.54 million, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, for Biggest Opening of All Time.
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April 30th, 2012
If someone were to describe the box office this weekend in just one word, that one word would be, "Yuck". Only one of the four wide releases matched expectations, and that was the film that was expected to do the worst. Think Like a Man easily repeated on top of the chart, despite falling nearly 50%. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend to $110 million, which was 30% lower than the same weekend last year. Declines like this usually only happen due to a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but the lead has shrunk to 14% at $3.29 billion to $2.88 billion. Fortunately, The Avengers is on track to break records, so 2012 should get back to its winning ways very soon.
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April 29th, 2012
This weekend's four new wide releases were no match for Think Like a Man, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with the comedy's 46% weekend-to-weekend drop-off and $18 million gross still putting it almost $7 million ahead of the next-best finisher. That movie, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, also comes from the Sony stable, although it is projected to be very narrowly at the head of a pack of movies that will earn around $11 million, and could actually end up anywhere between second and fifth when the final numbers come in on Monday. The other movies in the hunt for the (not very) coveted runners-up position include new release The Five-Year Engagement and two returning films: The Lucky One and The Hunger Games (which will end the weekend with over $370 million).
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April 26th, 2012
The four films opening wide this week will be looking to pull in as much money as possible over the next seven days before The Avengers opens and makes everything currently in theaters irrelevant. Five-Year Engagement is the only new film that is expected to compete for top spot, but even its box office chances have taken a hit from the beginning of the month. The other three films, The Raven and The Pirates! Band of Misfits could be in a close battle for a spot in the top five, while Safe looks like it is going to sink. This weekend last year was an abnormally strong weekend for April. In fact, Fast Five's opening of $86.20 million was strong for for a summer release. There's no chance anything coming out this weekend will match that figure.
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April 25th, 2012
Think Like a Man was a surprise hit and the only film to top $10,000 on the per theater chart. However,
Darling Companion came very, very close with an average of $9,991 in four theaters.
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April 23rd, 2012
Every single film in the top five either matched or exceeded expectations, Think Like a Man more than doubled its predictions, but it still wasn't enough to match last year's total. Granted, there was still reason to celebrate, as the box office soared 18% when compared to last week reaching $135 million over the weekend, while the box office fell short of last year's total by less than 0.5%, so it is hardly a reason to panic. Additionally, 2012 is still ahead of 2011 by a massive 17% margin at $3.14 billion to $2.69 billion. Next weekend will be a disaster, but the weekend after that is the start of summer, and analysts are bullish on the overall box office chances.
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April 22nd, 2012
Although it won't be enough to give the industry a year-on-year win, Think Like a Man will deliver a very impressive $30 million opening this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, a performance that is well ahead of projections going into the weekend. The Lucky One also beat expectations and will finish second with around $22.8 million. The Hunger Games will be pushed into 3rd place, picking up around $14.5 million in its fifth weekend and passing $350 million in the process. Nature documentary Chimpanzee will land in fourth place with $10.2 million.
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April 19th, 2012
It has been nearly a month since we've had a new release top the box office chart, but it looks like The Hunger Games is finally going to be pushed from top spot. It looks like The Lucky One will be the film that breaks The Hunger Games winning streak, as it is the only saturation level release. On the other hand, Think Like a Man and Chimpanzee are barely opening wide. Fortunately, the three wide releases this year appear about as strong as the three wide releases from last year. Unfortunately, last year was led by Rio during its second weekend of release, so 2012 has about a $25 million hole it will need to plug if it is to avoid the first three-week slump of the year.
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April 13th, 2012
There should be a close race for top spot next weekend between The Lucky One and Think Like a Man. I honestly don't know which one will win at the box office, but we are going with The Lucky One as the target film in this week's box office prediction contest, because it's easier to come up with a name for the contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Lucky One.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of We Bought a Zoo on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of We Bought a Zoo on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2012
There's good news / bad news going forward into April. First the good news, aside from one week where we saw a minor dip, March was fantastic. There were a number of films beating expectations and the overall the month was even stronger than predicted. As of this weekend, the box office is now 20% higher than the same pace last year. The bad news? That winning streak will certainly come to an end in April. Last year, there was one film that reached $200 million, Fast Five, plus two others that reached $100 million, Hop and Rio. Granted, due to the shifting calendar, Hop is actually being compared to the last weekend in March, so this April only needs one $200 million hit and a $150 million hit to keep pace. But even so, there's almost no chance that will happen. In fact, there's a chance that we might not have one film topping $100 million this year. Only three films have a real shot at this milestone: American Reunion, Five-Year Engagement, and Titanic 3D. And quite frankly, only the first one has a 50/50 chance of getting there. We will likely see 2012 shed some of its lead over 2011, but it should still end the month with a solid year-over-year lead.
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