Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for August 28th, 2018

August 29th, 2018

It is a very busy week with a flood of TV on DVD releases. Because of that, each entry has to be a little shorter than usual, especially the TV on DVD releases. There are some titles that are worth more attention, like American Animals, Bound, RBG, and others. It was a close race for Pick of the Week, but in the end I went with Bound on Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Predictions: Putting a Hit out on the Box Office

June 28th, 2018

After two monster hits in a row, the weekend crashes back down to Earth. Neither Sicario: Day of the Soldado nor Uncle Drew are expected to do much at the box office, but they are expected to open with similar amounts and there’s no consensus which film will do better, so at least there’s something to talk about. This weekend last year, Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.43 million. We will be relying almost entirely on holdovers to win in the year-over-year comparison. I think we’ve got an excellent shot of doing that by a significant margin. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jurassic World and Incredibles Combine for Biggest June Weekend

June 26th, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom beat expectations with $148.02 million over the weekend, but it wasn’t the only monster hit in theaters. Incredibles 2 added $80.35 million during its second weekend of release, which helped the overall box office become the biggest June weekend of all time. The overall box office rose just 2.3%, but that was enough to break the record with $277 million. This is also 98% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018 has had a string of hits that have dominated their 2017 counterparts, even if they missed expectations, so it is no surprise that 2018 has a lead over 2017 in the year-over-year comparison. However, that lead is surprisingly larger. It has grown to 9.1% or $490 million at $5.85 billion to $5.36 billion. No year has started as fast as 2018 has, and even its estimated ticket sales are the best in the 2010s. More...

Weekend Estimates: Fallen Starts Out on Top

June 24th, 2018

Sequels usually start faster but fall quicker, when compared to their predecessor. However, no one expected Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom to follow suit. In fact, many thought it would collapse. That wasn’t the case, as Fallen Kingdom opened with $150 million over the weekend. Granted, this is nearly 30% lower than Jurassic World’s opening weekend, but it could have been much worse. On the downside, its reviews are almost exactly 50% positive, which suggests weak legs. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences did like the film more than critics did, so we have mixed signals about what the movie will do going forward. Internationally, the film added $106.7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $561.5 million. This includes a $12.3 million debut in Mexico. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dinosaurs Stomp the Competition?

June 21st, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only wide release of the week and it was expected to dominate the box office. That was until Incredibles 2 broke records last weekend. Furthermore, Fallen Kingdom’s reviews have fallen below the overall positive level. Now there might be a race at the box office, at least on the daily charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Transformers: The Last Knight missed expectations with just $45 million over the weekend and $70 million in five days. Fallen Kingdom had better earn $45 million on Friday alone, or it is in serious trouble. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Incredible Doesn’t Even Begin to Describe It

June 18th, 2018

Incredibles 2 became the first potential monster hit since Infinity War to beat tracking numbers, opening with a mind-numbing $182.69 million. It is hard to describe how amazing this opening is. It has rewritten the record book when it comes to animated films and it gives Disney the top three openings of 2018 and four of the top five. This is twice as much as the rest of the box office earned over the entire weekend. There were other new releases this week, with Tag doing fine. Its $14.95 million opening is nothing special, but it should break even sometime on the home market. SuperFly, on the other hand, was a disappointment. The overall box office grew by 126% from last weekend, with Incredibles 2 earning about 50% more than the entire box office pulled in last weekend. The film was just shy of the same weekend last year, while the overall box office rose by 43%. Year-to-date, 2018 continues to have a lead over 2017, and it has grown to a commanding lead of 6.6% or $340 million at $5.44 billion to $5.10 billion. Granted, we are barely halfway through the year, but 2018 is in a great position to break the all-time yearly box office record. More...

Weekend Estimates: $180 million Opening is Beyond Incredible

June 17th, 2018

Incredibles 2 was widely expected to dominate the box office over the weekend, but after the two previous potential monster hits missed high expectations, I thought it was wise to be a little more pessimistic. I was wrong. Incredibles 2 opened with an estimated $180 million. This is not only the best opening for a Pixar film, and an animated film in general, it is the 8th biggest opening weekend of all time. (It could slip a little in tomorrow’s final numbers, putting it in 9th place behind Captain America: Civil War.) The film is already the 50th biggest animated hit of all time and unless its legs are shorter than expected, it will quickly race to the top of that chart. Speaking of legs, Incredibles 2 has the best reviews in the top ten and earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. To be frank, perhaps stunning isn’t the right word. Perhaps “expected” is a better term, as Pixar has earned 7 A plus ratings out of its 20 films and has never once slipped below an A minus. Internationally, the film opened in second place with $51.5 million in 25 markets and earned a Pixar-best opening in Mexico ($12.3 million) and Argentina ($3.0 million). In fact, it was outstanding in all of Latin America. It is also the fasting opening Pixar film in Australia with $7.7 million, while it managed the studio’s second biggest opening in Russia with $5.4 million. Granted, the film is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically; however, it is still on pace for $1 billion worldwide, so there’s no way the studio isn’t celebrating this opening. More...

Friday Estimates: Incredibles Smashes Animated Records

June 16th, 2018

Incredibles 2 opened with $71.55 million on Friday. To put this in perspective, it is already the biggest digital animation of 2018 and even if it doesn’t sell a single ticket on Saturday and Sunday, this would still be the fifth biggest opening weekend for a Pixar film and the 13th biggest opening for an animated film. Assuming its 93% positive reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore help its legs, it could top Solo: A Star Wars Story’s running tally by the end of the weekend. On the other hand, an opening weekend of $180 million seems like a solid goal after an opening day like this and that will put it on pace for over $500 million domestically. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Incredibles Doubles Dory’s Record with $18.5 million

June 15th, 2018

Incredibles 2 earned $18.5 million on preview night, which is double the previous record for an animated film of $9.2 million held by Finding Dory. However, and this is massively important, we’ve seen a number of really impressive previews turn into disappointing opening weekends, so I think it is wise to wait until Friday’s full numbers are in before we get excited about the movie’s weekend results. Even with 93% positive reviews, it could still be front-loaded and it might not necessarily break Dory’s and Pixar’s opening weekend record of $135.06 million. Normally I would be really enthusiastic about this result, but recent events have made it clear that being more cautious is better. More...

Weekend Predictions: How Incredible can the Incredibles Open?

June 14th, 2018

Incredibles 2 leads a group of three wide releases coming out in theaters this week. It should open with more than the rest of the box office combined. Tag is a film that many will find a little unbelievable, even though it is based on real-life events. Its reviews suggest a moderate opening, but nothing too special. The buzz surrounding SuperFly is really quiet, but it is being aimed at its target audience in a much more focused ad campaign, which makes judging said campaign’s effectiveness more difficult. Ocean’s 8 should have no trouble earning second place, while it could avoid falling 50%. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Cars 3 opened with $53.69 million, while Wonder Woman added $41.27 million over the same weekend. I would be shocked if Incredibles 2 doesn’t open with more than those two films earned combined. 2018 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease. More...

Tag Trailer

June 6th, 2018

Comedy starring Ed Helms, Jake Johnson, Hannibal Buress, Jon Hamm, and Jeremy Renner opens June 15 ... Full Movie Details. More...

2018 Preview: June

June 1st, 2018

This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017. More...