Home Market Releases for December 27th, 2016

December 26th, 2016

This Tuesday is the day after Boxing Day. I don’t know if there is a worse possible day to release something on the home market. There are a few films on this week’s list you could call busted Oscar bait, but almost nothing that is a contender for Pick of the Week. Fortunately, it is almost nothing and not completely nothing. A Man Called Ove is the best release and the DVD or Blu-ray are clearly the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for December 13th, 2016

December 12th, 2016

This is a strange week on the home market. We have one of the biggest domestic hits of the year, Suicide Squad, but it is one of the worst movies I’ve seen this year. (Granted, I’ve done fewer reviews this year and skipped a lot of terrible looking movies, like Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant... Ben Hur, The Huntsman, The Legend of Tarzan. I could keep going. Wow! It was a bad year for $100 million movies.) After Suicide Squad, the next biggest release according to Amazon is the Chicago Cubs 2016 World Series Collector's Edition Blu-ray. That’s a huge drop in sales. As far as quality is concerned, I have to give a shout out to that World Series Blu-ray. Real fans want full games and this one provides them. On the other hand, I personally find baseball boring to watch. Unfortunately, there’s no one release that stands out as an obvious Pick of the Week, but instead we have a lot of releases that are close, but wouldn’t be close enough during a good week. The Twilight Zone: The Complete Series on Blu-ray is the best, assuming you didn’t grab the individual seasons when they came out. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Magnificent Wins Weekend with $34.70 million, but Box Office Slump Continues

September 27th, 2016

Is it time to panic? Not yet, but we are definitely getting concerned. The overall box office was soft due to the weaker than expected openings of The Magnificent Seven and Storks. Neither bombed exactly, but they weren’t particular strong either. The overall box office rose 16% from last weekend, but was down 25% from this weekend last year. Ouch. You usually only see that large a change in the year-over-year comparison when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 dropped to 6.3% or $490 million at $8.35 billion to $7.86 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases be Magnificent?

September 22nd, 2016

It is a perfect weekend at the box office, as there are only two wide releases and there are almost no crossover audiences between them. The Magnificent Seven is a remake of a remake and its solid, but not spectacular. Storks is a digitally animated kids movie that is earning mixed reviews, but that’s fine for a kids movie. Those two movies will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined pulls in. This is both good news and bad news, as it is a combination of their strength and the rest of the box office’s weakness that is the cause. This weekend last year, Hotel Transylvania 2 debuted with $48 million, which is the record for a September weekend. I think The Magnificent Seven will top that, while Storks will double the second place film, The Intern. Unfortunately, last year there were three other films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be only one. 2016 is better on top, but 2015 had better depth. Perhaps 2016 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison, but I don't think it will quite make it. More...

Weekend Estimates: Sully Beats Trio of New Releases

September 18th, 2016

As expected, this weekend’s three new wide releases couldn’t budge Sully from the top of the chart with the Tom Hanks/Clint Eastwood drama down a very respectable 37% in its second weekend to $22 million, for a total of $70.5 million to date. Two films, Blair Witch and Bridget Jones’s Baby both had aspirations to challenge Sully for the title, but had to settle for second and third place. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Get Snowed Under by Sully’s $6.57 million Haul

September 17th, 2016

Friday was terrible for new releases and Sully will have no trouble repeating on top of the chart this weekend. The film earned $6.57 million on Friday, which is less than a 50% decline from its opening Friday. It might not quite get to $22 million as predicted, but even if it doesn’t, it should come close enough to be considered a victory. This is great news, because it is the only September release so far that has done well enough to call it a box office success. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Blair Witch Spooks the Box Office with $765,000

September 16th, 2016

Blair Witch led the way during Thursday’s previews with $765,000. This is well short of the horror films we had during the summer, including The Shallows at $1.33 million and Lights Out at $1.8 million. Then again, it isn’t really fair to compare previews during summer when a lot of the target audience doesn’t have to go to school the next day. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of horror films that come out in September and previews like this have only been ubiquitous for the past few years. I think it is a good sign, but I’m not sure. Maybe if moviegoers like it more than critics do, the film will be a hit. More...

Weekend Predictions: Baby vs. Witch

September 15th, 2016

There are three wide releases this week, plus another that could sneak into the top ten. Two of the three new releases, Blair Witch and Bridget Jones’s Baby, are expected to do well. On the other hand, Snowden is only going to reach the top five due to the lack of competition. Meanwhile, Hillsong: Let Hope Rise is a faith-based concert film. It could reach the top five, or it could miss the Mendoza Line. There’s no way to predict its box office potential. Despite the number of new releases, Sully is expected to remain in top spot thanks to its reviews and target demographic. This weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials led the way with just over $30 million. It is likely no film will make that this year, while the depth is a mixed bag, so it looks like 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2016 Preview: September

September 1st, 2016

August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top. More...