October 30th, 2018
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It’s another slow week on the home market, with not a lot of big releases and not a lot of Pick of the Week contenders. There were several that came close, including 2001: A Space Odyssey, Never Goin’ Back, The Princess Bride, etc. In the end, Mandy on Blu-ray was the only true contender for that title.
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August 21st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat the weekend estimates by more than $1 million, which is great news for the film’s future, as it suggests even better word-of-mouth. The rest of the new releases were well back, but their weakness didn’t sink the weekend box office, as it pulled in $129 million. This was still down 12% from last weekend, but more importantly, this was a stunning 35% higher than the same weekend last year, which helped extend 2018’s lead over 2017. 2018’s lead is now 9.6% or $690 million at $7.88 billion to $7.19 billion. I suspect we have likely nearly reached the peak this lead will be throughout the rest of the year, but it would take a major collapse for 2018 to not finish with a healthy victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 14th, 2018
The Meg was arguably the biggest box office surprise of the summer, earning more during its opening weekend than many thought it would earn in total and it doubled our prediction. It also earned more than the next three films earned combined, so it was a rather one-sided affair at the box office. Its $45.40 million debut did help the overall box office rise 5.6% from last weekend reaching $147 million. More importantly, this is 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 now has a 9.1% / $640 million lead over 2017 at $7.68 billion to $7.04 million.
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August 12th, 2018
The Meg not only beat our initial prediction, it topped yesterday’s revised estimate and that’s a really good sign. Warner Bros. is reporting an opening weekend of $44.5 million. If this is accurate, then the film’s internal multiplier will be a healthy 2.70. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore and that’s not a great sign for its long term chances. However, there are no movies opening for the rest of the summer that are as big as this film, so that could help its legs. After all, The Hitman’s Bodyguard had a multiplier of 3.53. Internationally, the numbers were even better, as the film earned $96.8 million, including $50.3m on 12,650 screens in China. It is also a hit in Mexico ($6.2 million) and Russia ($5.0 million), although it is a more muted success in the U.K. with $4.4 million. That last market is on par with what we thought the film would open with here. On a side note, you are more likely to die eating shark that being eaten by a shark, so don’t kill sharks. They are apex predators and are very important to the environment.
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August 11th, 2018
Surprisingly, The Meg dominated the box office on Friday with a very summer-like opening day of $16.5 million. There were some who thought the film wouldn’t earn that much during the entire weekend. Our prediction wasn’t that pessimistic, but this result still blows it out of the water. The film earned 51% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Both results are fine. They are nothing special, but also nothing to worry about. The genre does tend to be front-loaded, so a $40 million weekend isn’t not a sure thing, but more of a coin toss. Even if the film doesn’t reach that mark over its opening weekend, this will still be a major win for Warner Bros., which has not has a good year.
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August 10th, 2018
The Meg earned $4 million during its Thursday previews. This is about double what I was expecting and puts it on a clear path to over $30 million during its opening weekend. It will likely be front-loaded, as the reviews are barely above 50% positive and this genre of film tends to be front-loaded, even with good reviews. That said, it could match Annabelle: Creation’s opening from last year with just over $35 million. We will know more tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come in. The film also reportedly earned $16 million during its opening day in China, earning third place in the process. It’s going to be a busy weekend in China if a $16 million opening day is only good enough for third place.
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August 9th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this week. This includes Dog Days, which started on Wednesday. However, while it was released first, it is widely expected to be the last at the box office of the five wide releases. The Meg is widely expected to be the biggest new release of the week and it is the only film with a real shot at unseating Mission: Impossible—Fallout for top spot. I was expecting BlacKkKlansman to only open in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, but it is opening in 1,500 theaters giving it a real shot at a top five opening. Finally there’s Slender Man, a horror movie based on an internet meme that peaked years ago. It likely won’t be the worse box office performer of the weekend, but I’m not sure it will reach the top five. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the last blockbuster of summer opening with $35 million. No movie is going to match that this year. However, all three new releases made less than $50 million, while the four new releases could top that this weekend. I don’t think 2018 will win, but it should at least be close.
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August 1st, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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January 4th, 2018
Horror movie opens May 18 ... Full Movie Details.
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