March 15th, 2016
There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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March 4th, 2016
Judy Hopps and the rest of the cast of Zootopia got off to a great start earning $1.7 million during its Thursday previews. This doesn't sound like a lot compared to Deadpool, which earned more than $12 million just a few weeks ago. However, family films rarely do this well during previews. In fact, Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't even bother with previews. A good comparison is Home, which opened this month last year. That film earned $650,000 during its previews and its reviews were only mixed. As expected, Zootopia is no longer earning 100% positive reviews, but its Tomatometer Score is still a stunning 99% positive. This should help its word-of-mouth and a record-breaking run is still well within reach.
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March 4th, 2016
March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 2nd, 2016
There are some really good releases on this week's Home Market Release Report, including many that either won or were competing for Oscars, like Creed, Room, etc. However, once you get past the cream of the crop, there isn't much in the way of depth. Most of the Oscar contenders are Pick of the Week Contenders, but the best release by far is The Adventures of Bob & Doug McKenzie: Strange Brew on Blu-ray. This is the greatest movie ever made.
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January 12th, 2016
Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned first place on the weekend chart for the fourth time and likely the last time. It was a close race, as The Revenant beat expectations; meanwhile, The Forest was very solid as counter-programming. The overall box office was $159 million, which is 28% less than last weekend, but 26% more than the same weekend last year. After just two weeks, 2016 is 19% / $70 million above 2015's pace. Granted, it is way too early to make any long terms predictions and next weekend will be brutal for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison, but every little bit now will help at the end of the year.
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January 7th, 2016
The big news this week was Star Wars: The Force Awakens being officially crowned the All-Time Domestic Box Office champion. It should follow-up that news with yet another first place finish on the weekend box office. There are two films trying to take its crown: The Forest and The Revenant. The Revenant is a very likely Oscar winner and has performed phenomenally well in limited release, so it has a real shot at box office success this weekend. On the other hand, The Forest is a low-budget horror film that is just hoping to land in the top five. This weekend last year was led by Taken 3 with just under $40 million over the weekend, while Selma earned second place with $11 million. The Force Awakens might make more than those two films combined, but even if it doesn't, the one-two punch of The Force Awakens plus The Revenant will give 2016 an easy win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 4th, 2016
As expected, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dominated the weekend box office earning $90.24 million, breaking several records along the way. However, it did fall 40% over the weekend, which is a lot for this time of year. It appears The Force Awakens is acting more like a typical blockbuster hit and less like the typically leggy December release. That said, I don't think Disney is disappointed with the results so far. On the other hand, The Hateful Eight got off to a disappointing start earning third place with just a fraction of Django Unchained's opening weekend. The overall box office was down from last week, but was still an incredible $219 million. This was 26% lower than last week, but 41% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is a little less useful, as 2016 is only 3 days old, but it is 27% higher than 2015 was after the first weekend. This is even more impressive, as 2015 had an extra day before the weekend.
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December 31st, 2015
There are two questions that are being asked about this weekend. Firstly, will Star Wars: The Force Awakens become the first film to earn $100 million three weekends in a row? Secondly, will The Hateful Eight live up to Django Unchained? I'm going to say no to both, but the former is much more likely than the latter. The rest of the top five should look the same as last time, with Daddy's Home being the best of the holdovers. The Force Awakens should earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2016 a fast start on the year-over-year comparison.
One last note, there are only two limited releases this week, including Anomalisa, which we previously talked about. The only other limited release is Devil and Angel, which has no reviews, so there's not much to talk about. Because of this, there will be no Limited Release Report this week.
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December 28th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily won the weekend race, but not by as much as anticipated. On the other hand, Daddy's Home was a surprise hit and should cruise to $100 million. None of the rest of the new releases really bombed and most will end their runs as midlevel hits. Overall, the box office fell just 5.1% from last weekend to $295 million, which is the second biggest combined weekend of all time. It was also 41% bigger than the same weekend last year and 2015's year-over-year lead grew to 7.0%. It looks like the 2015 box office will reach $11 billion when all is said and done, but we won't know for sure till we get the absolute final numbers.
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December 27th, 2015
The Star Wars juggernaut continues to roll through box office records all around the world this weekend. It will pass $1 billion globally today, Sunday, in just its 12th day in release—one day faster than Jurassic World. That blockbuster figure is largely thanks to an incredible $544 million after just ten days domestically, far ahead of Jurassic World’s $402 million at the same point in its run. The Force Awakens has now broken records for every milestone from $50 million to $500 million, with more to fall. The current record for fastest to $550 million is also Jurassic World, which reached the mark in 24 days. Star Wars will do it in eleven. After that, we will start looking at some serious all-time records.
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December 21st, 2015
It's been a busy weekend for box office record watchers, as Star Wars: The Force Awakens destroyed the record book. However, it wasn't the only film playing in theaters. The Force Awakens earned $247.97 million, which by itself is the 11th biggest Combined Box Office. Add in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, the new limited releases and all of the holdovers, and the total box office reached $313 million, topping the old record of $274 million. Needless to say, the overall box office was higher compared to last weekend by 304%. It was also higher than last year by a margin of 131%. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $10.13 billion, putting it 5.9% or $560 million ahead of last year's pace. 2015's lead over 2014 grew by more than 1.5 percentage points / $160 million over just one weekend.
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December 20th, 2015
Disney is projecting a $238 million opening weekend for Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens as of Sunday morning, a figure that will make it, by some margin, the highest-grossing film on opening weekend at the domestic box office. Jurassic World holds the current domestic record, at $208.8 million. Given the $30 million over-performance at home, it’s perhaps a slight surprise that Star Wars isn’t also projected to take the global weekend record, with its expected $517 million falling a little behind Jurassic World’s $524.9 million debut earlier in the year. That’s one of a handful of examples of Star Wars placing second all-time as of Sunday morning, but mostly it’s been a case of broken records all round, and there’s evidence that Disney is playing things safe in their projections, so pretty much no record can be considered out of reach at this point.
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December 19th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens not only broke the single day record, it crushed the previous mark. It became the first film to ever earn more than $100 million in a single day, blowing past that milestone with $120.5 million on Friday. So what does this mean for the rest of the weekend? I have no idea, as we are in completely uncharted territory. Well, that's not entirely true. I do know our Weekend Predictions underestimated the demand for this film. The film does have to deal with the Fanboy Effect. Films with Fanboy appeal tend to have shorter legs, because Fanboys rush out to see the movie opening day / opening weekend. However, there are factors at play here that will likely help its legs over the weekend. Firstly, the film’s word of mouth should be amazing as it is earning 95% positive reviews and an A Cinemascore. Secondly, there were a large number of sellouts opening night, so in many places the Fanboys were forced to wait, because they couldn’t get tickets. Even the low end has The Force Awakens breaking the all-time weekend record. On the high end, it could top $250 million. If the film does earn $250 million during its opening weekend, then $1 billion domestically is on the table. An opening weekend around $230 million is more likely. Our model has it earning $225 million—Bruce will have a piece on that shortly—but that still puts $800 million, and yet another record, in the film’s sights.
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December 18th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens broke Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s record for biggest previews by scoring $57 million on Thursday evening. It didn’t just beat the old record, it destroyed it. $57 million is 31% more than the previous record of $43.5 million. This bodes very well for the film’s box office chances, both for today and for the full weekend. On the downside, there are reports that men made up 70% of the audience, which is really high. It could be that women stayed away for the most part because they were worried about the crowds and that the gender balance will be different the rest of the weekend. We should have more information on that by Monday.
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December 17th, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them matters: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Better than anticipated reviews could help it break records over the weekend. It has already broken some box office records, becoming the first film to reach $100 million in advance ticket sales. The other wide releases are Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, both of which are just trying to not completely disappear. This weekend last year, the total box office was $135 million. The Force Awakens could earn nearly 50% more than that and some would still see it as a disappointment. 2015 should extend its lead over 2014 by more than $100 million.
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December 1st, 2015
November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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