January 12th, 2016
It is a busy week for first run releases with four of them on this week's list. Of these, The Martian is the biggest and the best. It would have been the Pick of the Week except for two things. One, the screener is late. Two, David Bowie passed away over the weekend. He died after an 18-month battle with cancer and just two days after his last album came out. This is the the most poignant Rock'n'Roll death since Freddie Mercury and it seems fitting to give Blackstar the title of Pick of the Week.
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October 16th, 2015
Two scary films started their box office runs last night with Crimson Peak earning $855,000, putting it ahead of Goosebumps, which pulled in $600,000. By comparison, Sinister 2 earned $800,000 during its midnight showings on its way to a $10.54 million opening weekend. Sinister 2 had ... issues with its reviews, unlike Crimson Peak, which is earning 68% positive reviews. Perhaps Ouija, which opened this time last year, would be a better comparison. It earned $911,000 during its midnight shows on its way to a $19.88 million opening weekend. It too struggled with critics, but I think the release date makes it a better comparison. Crimson Peak could reach $20 million over the weekend.
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August 31st, 2015
August is over and the number one film over the full month remained in first place for the third weekend in a row. Only one of the three new releases did well, War Room, as it topped the high end of exceptions. The other two wide releases bombed, in the case of No Escape, and bombed hard, in the case of We Are Your Friends. The overall box office plummeted 17% to just $88 million over the weekend. That's so low that I double-checked the numbers. Granted, there are likely a few limited releases that we don't have weekend numbers for yet, so this number isn't final. However, even the final number won't be that much higher than this, certainly not high enough to make a real difference. This was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by nearly $400 million at $7.39 billion to 7.00 billion, so this slump isn't terrible news. However, I would really like it to end sooner rather than later.
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August 26th, 2015
The winners of our Sinister Six contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Sinister 2 opening weekend were...
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August 25th, 2015
It was an ugly weekend, for the most part. Straight Outta Compton fell about as fast as expected, but that was more than enough to dominate the new releases and push it past an important milestone. On the other hand, the biggest new release, Sinister 2, only managed third place, while the less said about Hitman: Agent 47 and American Ultra, the better. Overall, the box office fell 27% to $107 million. Like I said on Friday, summer is most definitely over. Worse still, this figure is 7.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Had all three new releases matched expectations, the box office would have practically matched last year's pace. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which is 5.3% head of 2014's running tally of $6.90 billion.
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August 23rd, 2015
As expected, Straight Outta Compton is continuing to dominate at the box office this weekend, with a second weekend of $26.76 million and a total of $111.5 million projected by Universal on Sunday morning. In fact, Compton is so dominant that the music biopic will earn more than the combined grosses of all three debutants. Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation’s fourth-weekend $11.7 million will be enough for second place.
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August 22nd, 2015
As expected, Sinister 2 was the best of the new releases, earning $4.7 million on Friday. This is “strong” in the loosest sense of the word. The horror sequel had an opening day that was 37% lower than the first film’s and it is only going to get worse. Sequels tend to be more front-loaded than original films and the reviews will scare away moviegoers for the rest of the weekend. Worst case scenario has the film earning less than $10 million this weekend and even the best case scenario is just $12 million. The lower end seems more likely, so look for between $10 million and $11 million over the full weekend. This is more than it cost to make, on the other hand, so the studio might still recoup its total budget sometime on the home market.
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August 21st, 2015
After last week's reprieve, summer truly ends this week. There are three wide releases coming out, none of which are expected to become even midlevel hits. Also, none of them are earning overall positive reviews. The biggest movie is Sinister 2, which is expected to do well enough to earn a profit, mostly thanks to its very low production budget. American Ultra is the best in terms of Tomatometer Score—by a huge margin. However, it is still earning less than 50% positive reviews by a large margin. The biggest movie in terms of production budget is Hitman: Agent 47, which is bad news for the studio, because it is not expected to do well. In fact, there's almost no chance any of the three new releases will top Straight Outta Compton this weekend. There's a small chance that their combined openings won't top Straight Outta Compton. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there were no movies that earned more than $20 million, which is the absolute low end of Straight Outta Compton's range. On the other hand, If I Stay was the best new release with $15.68 million. That's more than any of the wide releases this year will earn and it only managed third place last year. I think 2015 will win with ease at the top of the chart, but 2014 might have better depth, keeping it ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 20th, 2015
The winners of our Once Bitten contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Straight Outta Compton opening weekend were...
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August 14th, 2015
Summer is rapidly winding down. There are three wide releases coming out next week, none of them are expected to be midlevel hits. The only one that even has a shot at $50 million is Sinister 2. Horror films tend to do well in late summer, or at least they tend to perform better than most other genre. Because of this, Sinister 2 is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Sinister 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of Little Loopers on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second Frankenprize, comprised of The Last Days of the Nazis on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a third Frankenprize, comprised of It Happened Here on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2015
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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