February 23rd, 2016
It's not a great week on the home market. The Good Dinosaur is the biggest release this week, but it is the only wide release of note. Spotlight started out in limited release, but while it expanded significantly, it never expanded truly wide. As for the Pick of the Week, I'm going with the Bogart / Bacall Blu-ray Double-Shot: The Big Sleep and Key Largo.
On a side note, it is another short list this week, because Amazon continues to be run by morons. I tried to get help from chat, but that wasn't very successful. I "talked" to four people without getting an answer. Two of which logged in and then logged out without saying a thing. One logged in, introduced themselves, then logged out when I asked a question. I tried through e-mail, but a week later and no reply. I have a phone number for press and I will try that once the Oscars are over and I'm not overwhelmed with work.
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November 24th, 2015
The Curse of the High Expectations strikes again. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 became the fifth film of the year to open with more than $100 million. This should be a reason to celebrate, but it marks a very steep decline from previous films in the Hunger Games franchise. The other two wide releases, The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, both failed to meet expectations, leaving the overall box office softer than anticipated. Granted, it still grew 60% from last weekend to $173 million, but this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a comfortable margin of 3.6% or $320 million. It would take a sizable collapse for 2015 to not come out on top in terms of raw box office dollars. On the other hand, it wouldn't take too much for it to slip below ticket price inflation, which is about 2% this year.
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November 22nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 is about to record the most disappointing $100 million weekend ever, based on Sunday’s estimate from Lionsgate. Why disappointing? Because its $101.025 million projected opening follows the $158 million earned by Catching Fire on this weekend in 2013 (then the sixth-biggest weekend ever), and the $122 million debut of Mockingjay—Part 1 this weekend last year. That marks a decline of 20% or so from one installment of the franchise to the next, which is the worst performance of any franchise to have recorded a $100 million start. Global numbers tell a similar story: $247 million this weekend against Part 1’s $275 million. However, once we get that troubling statistic out the way, this is also a reason for celebration: $100 million domestically and $250 million globally in one weekend is still a huge amount of money, and caps a spectacularly successful franchise for Lionsgate.
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November 21st, 2015
There’s good news / bad news for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2’s Friday box office. On the positive side, it is dominating in theaters with $46 million on Friday, which is more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. It might be more than the combined weekend hauls of the rest of the top five, in fact. On the down side, this is below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $104 million for the weekend as a whole. Granted, this is still the best opening since Jurassic World and the fifth-best opening of the year, but it is well behind Part 1, which pulled in $55 million on its opening day, so some will call this a disappointment. It is the curse of high expectations.
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November 20th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 got off to a $16 million start last night. That is the best "midnight" preview we've seen since Jurassic World earned $18.5 million this summer. However, it is a little lower than The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1's figure of $17 million. Does this mean Part 2 is going to open on the low end of expectations? It's too soon to tell. Previews are not very predictive of box office success, especially when the numbers are this close. Obviously bigger would be better, but there's no reason to panic just yet.
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November 20th, 2015
It should be a very busy weekend, at least at the top, as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 is nearly guaranteed to dominate the box office and many think it will top $100 million over the weekend. On the other hand, the other two releases are The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, neither of which is expected to do particularly well. That said, they would have to truly bomb to not at least make the top five, but I doubt either of them will top Spectre over the weekend. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 opened with just over $120 million. That is the figure Part 2 will need to match to be considered a success. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, but not everyone is.
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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