May 24th, 2016
There are not a lot of first-run releases on this week's list and none that are contenders for Pick of the Week. That's not to say there are no contenders, but they come from catalog releases, TV on DVD, etc. Buster Keaton: The Shorts Collection 1917-1923 on Blu-ray tops that list. However, I'm going with Mustang on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. The screener arrived late, but it was worth it.
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April 1st, 2016
God's Not Dead 2 started its box office run with $400,000 during its Thursday previews. This is a little lower than Risen ($425,000) and The Young Messiah ($475,000), but faith-based films are unpredictable enough that we can't use this result to make any clear predictions going forward. Perhaps predictions were a little generous and $11 million is more likely. We will know by this time tomorrow.
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March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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March 13th, 2016
Zootopia is headed to another big win at the box office this weekend, with a modest 33% decline from last weekend keeping it well ahead of a pack of new releases. Its $50 million gross this time around takes it to $142.6 million in total domestically. With $288.7 million in the bank internationally, including over $100 million in China by the end of the weekend, Disney looks to have struck gold again. A sequel, theme park tie-ins and merchandizing seem likely, although Disney has so much of that going on already, what with Star Wars, Marvel, its Princess lines, and Pixar, that this might actually be more of a niche for them. (A half-billion-dollar-and-counting niche. Nice work if you can get it.)
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March 11th, 2016
10 Cloverfield Lane had the best results during its Thursday previews with $1.8 million in 2,500 theaters. This is the same as Insidious: Chapter 3 managed last year during its previews. That film opened with $22.69 million over the full weekend, which is a good target for 10 Cloverfield Lane to aim for. With amazing reviews, $25 million is within reach. We will know more tomorrow when we get Friday's estimates.
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March 10th, 2016
There are four widish releases coming out this week, but only two of them are opening truly wide, while only one of them has any real box office power. That film is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is the pseudo-sequel to Cloverfield. Very few people think it will match its predecessor, but it should open in a solid second place. That leaves Zootopia in the perfect spot to repeat on the top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, Cinderella led the way with $67.88 million. This is more than any one single film will make this year. However, the second biggest hit of last year was Run All Night at barely more than $11 million and no other film earned substantially more than $6 million. Perhaps the depth from 2016 will help it win in the year-over-year comparison. I'm not overly bullish that will happen, but we can't rule it out either.
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 21st, 2016
After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom.
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February 20th, 2016
Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even.
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February 19th, 2016
The Witch had the fastest start on Thursday, with $630,000 from preview shows. This is almost identical to what Krampus earned late last year and that film earned $16 million during its opening weekend. Granted, Krampus was the only wide release that weekend and didn’t have to deal with any film as big as Deadpool. That said, this is still a good result for the film and it suggests it will top predictions, especially if moviegoers like it as much as critics did. Additionally, A24 said the advertising budget was “nominal” and that it was focused on the planned VOD / home market release in three months. It could break even by this time next week.
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February 19th, 2016
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The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.
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February 12th, 2016
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There are three wide releases next week. Of those three, I think it is safe to say The Witch has the weakest box office potential. However, there could be a close race between Race and Risen. Furthermore, both films lend themselves to contest names. (Race to the Top vs. Rise to the Top.) However, faith-based films tend to be too unpredictable, so we are going with Race as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Race.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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