October 5th, 2016
The winners of our Dark Urges contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deepwater Horizon opening weekend were...
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October 4th, 2016
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The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week.
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September 23rd, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out next week. Of the three, Masterminds is by far the weakest and has no real shot at first place. In fact, if it opens above fifth place, I will be surprised. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children is the widest, but the early reviews for Deepwater Horizon are excellent and I think that will give it the edge at the box office. Because of this, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Deepwater Horizon.
We have copies of The Purge: The Election as prizes. While the film hit VOD this past Tuesday, we have copies on Blu-ray Combo Pack as prizes.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win a copy of The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win The Purge: The Election on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 22nd, 2016
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The winners of our Bewitching Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Blair Witch opening weekend were...
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August 28th, 2016
Fall season begins in earnest this weekend with the low-budget suspense flick Don’t Breathe taking over at the top of the box office chart. Sony is predicting a $26.1 million debut for the film, which will be the best debut for a horror or suspense film since The Purge: Election Year’s $31.5 million in July, and the best for a non-sequel since Annabelle’s $37.1 million in October, 2014. Don’t Breathe has the advantage of really good reviews (currently running at 84% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), although it will have a lot of competition over the next few weeks, with films aimed at a broadly similar audience coming out every week for the next three weeks (not to mention a truckload more arriving in October).
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July 12th, 2016
As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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July 7th, 2016
It should be a good weekend at the box office, at least for The Secret Life of Pets. The film is earning great reviews and should become the biggest hit of the month. There is one downside: the competition. There are a lot of options for families among the films currently in theaters, plus another movie from a long-running franchise opening soon. Also opening this week is Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, which is an R-rated comedy hoping to survive in the counter-programming role. It could become a midlevel hit, or it could fail to open in the top five. This weekend last year, Minions opened with $115.72 million. The Secret Life of Pets is not going to top that. 2016 has better depth, but likely not by enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 6th, 2016
The Purge: The Election Year earned top spot on the theater average chart, at least among those films we don’t have doubts about their box office numbers. It pulled in an average of $11,271, putting it just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan, which earned an average of $10,819. The only other film in the $10,000 club was The Innocents at $10,500 in three theaters.
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July 6th, 2016
The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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July 3rd, 2016
Three new movies entered the race for box office glory this July 4 weekend. One, The BFG, fell at the first hurdle. One of the other two, The Legend of Tarzan is disappointing, but not disastrous. The third, The Purge: Election Year, won the night on Friday and is headed to a great debut. But, in the end, none were a match for the third weekend of Finding Dory.
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July 2nd, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned first place with on Friday with $14.47 million during its opening day. This is impressive for film that cost $10 million to make, but it is below the opening day for the first film. The holidays should help its internal multiplier, as will the critical reception. While its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, they are still the best for the franchise. Additionally, its CinemaScore was B+, again the best for the franchise. This puts the film on pace for just under $40 million during its four-day weekend. This is very likely more than the film’s combined budget, so if it can make this much during the rest of its theatrical run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.
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July 1st, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned the best Thursday previews out of the three wide releases with $3.64 million last night. This is the best in the franchise, just beating the $3.44 million the first film managed and well ahead of the $2.64 million the second film pulled in. On the downside, the film's reviews have slipped to just 57% positive. That's still good, for this genre and it might be a bigger than expected hit.
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July 1st, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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June 30th, 2016
It's the first weekend of July, which means I should probably start the monthly preview. (I'm kidding. Although, I did have a computer crash this morning and lost a few hours of work. Save early. Save often.) Like last week, Finding Dory should earn first place over the weekend, while there are a trio of wide releases hoping to take advantage of the holiday. The BFG is the biggest in terms of box office potential. The Legend of Tarzan is the biggest in terms of production budget. Finally, The Purge: Election Year is the biggest in terms of profitability. This weekend last year, Inside Out climbed over Jurassic World for first place, as both films earned just under $30 million, Finding Dory will make almost that much combined.
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June 24th, 2016
July begins next weekend and there are three films hoping to make an impact at the box office. The Purge: Election Year might not hit $50 million domestically, but that's fine given its low production budget. The Legend of Tarzan should do a little better, but it had a troubled production and it cost more than $150 million to make. That leaves The BFG, a.k.a., the Big Friendly Giant. It is a live action family film released by Disney. It's aimed at too young an audience to be a monster hit, but it has a shot at $100 million, which is more than the other two films can say. As a result, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The BFG.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviewed DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids DVDs. I'm out of mystery box items, unless I find some more later on.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.
Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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