2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for August 6th, 2019

August 7th, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is the biggest release of the week and it is also one of the best. Amazing Grace and Penguin Highway and better movies, but Pikachu is the only one of the three Pick of the Week contenders with significant extras on its DVD / Blu-ray release. More...

International Box Office: Aladdin is the Jewel of the International Chart

May 29th, 2019

Aladdin opened with $121.0 million in 54 markets earning first place on the international chart. Add in its three-day domestic debut and it had a global opening of $212.5 million at the end of business on Sunday. The film’s biggest market was China, where it managed $18.92 million over the weekend, earning first place along the way. It was also number one in the U.K. with $8.97 million and it topped the chart in Mexico with $8.78 million. The latter is more impressive, given the relative size of the two markets. On the downside, the film was expensive to make and it only has one major market left to debut in (Japan), so it will need long legs to break even in a timely fashion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Aladdin Earns $100 million Opening

May 28th, 2019

It was a great weekend for Aladdin and an okay weekend for the box office as a whole. Aladdin made more over the three-day portion of the weekend than most predicted it would make over four days. Unfortunately, not all of the rest of the films were able to pull their weight. The overall box office still grew 23% from last weekend reaching $181 million, but it slipped when compared to last year. Granted, it fell less than $1 million or 0.5% when compared to the same weekend last year, which is such a small gap that it is practically a tie. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.31 billion, which is 9.2% or $440 million lower than 2018’s running tally of $4.75 million and this number needs to improve over the coming weeks. More...

Weekend Estimates: Aladdin Goes Long with $86 million over Three-Day Weekend

May 26th, 2019

Aladdin’s box office continues to grow with Disney projecting $86.1 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for $105 million including Monday. Its reviews are fine, but its A from CinemaScore is really telling a story here and it should lead to long legs, especially with school holidays starting soon. Internationally, the film earned $121.0 million, not including Monday, for a $207.1 million global debut. The film did okay in China with $18.7 million, but clearly the lack of nostalgia was hurting it here. The film was a much bigger hit in Mexico with $9.2 million, but it was also a smash in the U.K. ($8.4 million); Italy ($6.6 million); and others. More on that during our International Top Five column. More...

Friday Estimates: Aladdin Has a Memorable Start with $31 Million

May 25th, 2019

Aladdin is looking stellar after a $31.0 million opening Friday. The film’s reviews are nothing special, but it scored an A from CinemaScore, so clearly audiences are loving the movie much more than critics did. The word-of-mouth should help its legs and this puts it on pace to top $100 million over the four-day weekend and even top last year’s top film, Solo: A Star Wars Story, with about $107 million. This is much better than most predictions and a return to form for live-action Disney remakes after Dumbo’s disappointing run earlier in the year. It could even help 2019 top 2018 in the year-over-year comparison, but that depends on the rest of the new releases and holdovers also matching or exceeding expectations. That doesn’t look as promising. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Aladdin Grant the Box Office its Wish?

May 23rd, 2019

It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the biggest weekends of the year. However, this year there are not a lot of prime new releases to talk about. Aladdin is the only new release expected to become even a midlevel hit, while both Booksmart and Brightburn are expected to struggle in their counter-programming roles. The three new releases will be competing for spots in the top five with three holdovers, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Avengers: Endgame, and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu. That’s six films competing for five slots, so one of them will miss out. This weekend last year, Solo: A Star Wars Story led the way with $84.42 million over the three-day weekend. There are many who think Aladdin won’t make that much over four days. I’m a little more bullish than most, but I don’t think 2019 will get back in the winning column this weekend. Aladdin’s numbers haven’t picked up as they should have. More...

International Box Office: Pikachu Tops Russian Box Office and Remains International Champ

May 22nd, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu remained in first place earning $56.4 million on 32,113 screens in 72 markets for totals of $196.2 million internationally and $290.6 million worldwide. The film’s only major market debut of the weekend, and indeed the last major market of the film’s international run, was Russia. It earned first place there with $4.0 million on 3,085 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $17.94 million on 15,000 screens to its running tally, which now sits at $69.66 million after two weeks of release. It fell 55% during its sophomore stint, which is an amazing hold for this market. The film has no major market openings going forward, but it should stick around long enough to crack $300 million internationally and even has a slim shot at $500 million worldwide. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: John Wick Wins Weekend, Can’t Stop Deadpool from Killing 2019

May 21st, 2019

The overall weekend was about as good as anyone could hope for with John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum topping expectations with $56.82 million. This mostly made up for A Dog’s Journey and The Sun is Also A Star, both of which missed low expectations. However, the overall weekend still fell 12% when compared to last weekend at $147 million and this is 30% lower than the same weekend last year. To be fair, almost no one was expecting this year to match last year, because last year Deadpool 2 opened. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 9.2% or $410 million margin at $4.03 billion to $4.44 billion. Fortunately, if Aladdin does as well next weekend as many are expecting, then this losing streak will end after just one week. More...

Weekend Estimates: John Wick Wrecks the Competition

May 19th, 2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is way ahead of the weekend competition with a projected $57.03 million opening weekend. This is not only more than the next two films combined, it is more than the first film in the John Wick franchise earned domestically. Add in the film’s reviews, its A minus from CinemaScore, and Memorial Day long weekend, which is next weekend, and it should have relatively long legs. $150 million domestically isn’t out of the question. Like the other films in the John Wick franchise, this one isn’t doing as well internationally. However, it is still step up from the second film with an opening weekend of $35.2 million from 66 markets. This includes number one debuts in the U.K. ($4.6 million) and Australia ($2.8 million), while it had to settle for second place in Russia ($3.8 million) and third place in Mexico ($2.1 million). The film likely cost $50 million to make and an equal amount to advertise, while Lionsgate’s share of the global opening weekend is likely north of $40 million. The film is on pace to break even before it reaches the home market. More...

Friday Estimates: Parabellum’s Unparalleled Success

May 18th, 2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum got off to a surprisingly strong start on Friday with $22.67 million during its first day of release. Even if we subtract Thursday’s previews, this is still more than the first film made during its opening weekend. It would take incredibly short legs for Parabellum to not earn more during its opening weekend than the first film earned in total. It should have reasonable legs over the weekend. Granted, it is a sequel and its target audience is known to rush out to theaters; however, its reviews are strong and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, tying it with the second film for best in the franchise. With a little luck, it will crack $60 million over the full weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: John Wick Takes Aim at Top Spot

May 16th, 2019

This weekend likely won’t be a particularly good one at the box office, when compared to last weekend and especially when compared to last year. There are three wide releases, but only John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is expected to make a significant impact at the box office. A Dog’s Journey could become a midlevel hit, while The Sun is Also A Star might not open in the top five. Fortunately, both Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame should provide some power at the box office. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Deadpool 2 debuted with just over $125 million. There’s almost no chance 2019 will match 2018 at the box office and the year’s mini-wining streak is about to come to an end. More...

Theater Averages: Biggest Little Opening of the Week

May 16th, 2019

The Biggest Little Farm earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $22,098 in five theaters. Up next were the top two films on the overall box office chart, Avengers: Endgame and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu. The two films earned averages of $13,578 and $12,938 respectively. The final film in the $10,000 club was All is True, which earned an average of $11,053 in four theaters. More...

International Box Office: Pikachu Squeaks by Endgame

May 16th, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu won what was perhaps the closest race on the international chart in my time on the job. The film won first place with $103.0 million on 36,633 screens in 62 markets for totals of $112.4 million internationally and $166.9 million worldwide. The film dominated the chart in China earning first place with $40.61 million on an estimated 20,000 screens. It also earned first place in the U.K. with $6.46 million in 579 theaters. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany ($5.0 million on 1,220 screens); France ($4.8 million in 467 theaters); Mexico ($4.36 million on 2,686 screens); and Australia ($3.5 million on 412 screens). The film only managed fourth place in South Korea with $1.71 million on 817 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.20 million. The film debuts in Russia this weekend and while this isn’t the last market, it is the last major market. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Endgame Barely Tops Infinity War, Pickachu Solves Video Game Adaptations

May 14th, 2019

The two biggest hits of the weekend were not as potent as predicted, but Avengers: Endgame and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu both have reasons to celebrate. Endgame became only the fourth film to reach $700 million domestically, while Detective Pikachu nearly entered the top ten video game adaptations of all time after just its opening weekend. As for the other wide releases, The Hustle did fine and the less said about Poms and Tolkien the better. The overall box office 16% from last weekend hitting $168 million. However, this was 21% higher than the same weekend last year, which is clearly the more important figure, as 2019 continues to try and climb out of the hole it dug for itself. It is now behind last year by 8.7% or $370 million at $3.83 billion to $4.20 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Endgame Continues to Fall, while Pikachu has Solid Start

May 12th, 2019

If projections hold, then Avengers: Endgame will fall almost as much this weekend as it did during its second weekend, with a 57% decline taking it to $63.1 million time around, and a three-week total of $723.5 million. It is very unusual for a film to not rebound significantly during in third weekend of release. One sign of how quickly the film is dropping after its enormous opening is that it will have “only” the fourth-biggest third weekend, slipping behind Black Panther at this point in its run. More...

Friday Estimates: Pikachu Overtakes Endgame During Opening Day

May 11th, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu earned first place on Friday with $20.6 million. This is a little weaker than we predicted and this suggests its a little more of a Fanboy film than a Family Film. That said, while this will result in marginally shorter legs, the film will still have a potent opening of about $57 million, thanks in part to Mother’s Day. This is slightly higher than its pre-release tracking, so it is worth celebrating. Additionally, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is better than its reviews and that will further help its chances in the long run. Internationally, the film pulled in $23.1 million on 36,300 screens in 62 markets on Friday for an early total of $43.4 million. By the end of the film’s “opening” weekend, it could have more globally than its $150 million production budget. (We have “opening” in quotation marks, because it did technically debut in Japan last weekend.) More...

Thursday Night Previews: Pikachu Has a Super Start

May 10th, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu pulled in $5.7 million during its previews on Thursday. This is a strong start, but how strong depends on if the film is pulling in more families than Fanboys. If it is weighted heavily to the Fanboys, then it will have legs similar to Shazam!, for example, which would still be enough to match the tracking at just over $50 million for the weekend. If it is more heavily weighted to families, then it has a real shot at topping our $65 million prediction. If it has similar legs to How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, then it will beat that figure by a substantial margin. Legs will also depend on the film’s word-of-mouth and whether or not moviegoers liked the movie more than critics did. As always, we will know more this time tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come out. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Pikachu Solve Endgame at the Box Office?

May 9th, 2019

There are four wide releases opening this weekend, but Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is the only one expected to have any impact at the box office. Even then, it would be a shock if it really challenged Avengers: Endgame for top spot. It will take a bit of luck for The Hustle and Poms to earn more than $10 million at the box office. Meanwhile, I would be a little surprised if Tolkien opened in the top five. Detective Pikachu and Endgame will be leading the way and trying to keep 2019’s winning streak going. In order to do that, they will need to top last year’s group of box office hits, which include Infinity War and ... Life of the Party. Seems doable. In fact, 2019 should have another stellar result in the year-over-year competition. More...

2019 Preview: May

May 1st, 2019

April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall. More...

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Trailer

March 7th, 2019

Adventure starring Ryan Reynolds opens May 10 ... Full Movie Details. More...