February 6th, 2013
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which is surprisingly competitive this year, especially compared to most years. There is a Pixar film nominated, but it isn't the overwhelming favorite. In fact, all five films have a legitimate shot at winning, although there are some with better chances than others.
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January 17th, 2013
Men in Black 3 led all new releases earning first place on the Blu-ray sales chart with 241,000 units / $6.75 million during its opening week of release. Its Blu-ray share was just under 40%, which is low for this type of release.
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January 17th, 2013
There were a quartet of new releases to reach the December 2nd edition of the DVD sales chart, but none of them were able to challenge for top spot. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax and Brave were in a battle for first place with the former winning if you go by units at 637,000 to 584,000. However, the latter wins in terms of revenue at $11.65 million to $8.09 million. Brave is still a little behind in terms of total units at 4.33 million to 4.75 million; however, after just three weeks of release, it has overtaken The Lorax's 17-week total revenue at $73.45 million to $72.32 million.
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January 10th, 2013
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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January 6th, 2013
Producers Guild of America announced their nominations this week, including the three theatrical categories. There were a number of films on the list that have been mentioned time and time again this awards season, like Zero Dark Thirty, but there were also a few surprises.
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December 19th, 2012
There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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November 26th, 2012
It's not a good week on the home market, but for different reasons than last week. There are five first-run releases coming out this week, which is actually very busy. However, it is a bad week, because I'm supposed to receive screeners for for four of those five films, but so far none of have arrived. At least with Men in Black 3, there's a few more days before it is officially late, as it doesn't come out till Friday. Men in Black 3 also made more at the box office than the rest of the first run releases made combined, so there will likely be a huge gap between the first and second best selling new-release of the week. As for the best releases for the week, ParaNorman is the only real contender for Pick of the Week. The Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth owning, but if you've made the leap to 3D, then the 3D Combo Pack is worth the extra money.
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September 10th, 2012
Yuck. The overall box office this past weekend was not only the worst of the year so far, but it was the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Not only did the box office have a decade of inflation, but also a decade of population growth, which makes this result even more depressing. The Possession was the only bright spot in the top ten. Both The Words and The Cold Light of Day missed the Mendoza Line during their opening weekend. Overall, the box office plummeted 35% to just $67 million. Compared to last year, the box office fell by 17%. It's a disaster. 2012 is still ahead of 2011 by 3.3% at $7.70 billion to $7.45 billion. Things will have to get better next weekend, so hopefully we will never have to think about this weekend again.
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September 4th, 2012
There's good news and bad news for the Labor Day long weekend. Overall, the box office was a little stronger than predicted with The Possession having the second best Labor Day long weekend opening of all time. (Only Halloween had a stronger opening.) This helped the overall box office rise 7.0% from last weekend to $104 million. However, despite this performance, the overall weekend was softer than last year down 2.5% over the three-day portion of the weekend and 3.3% over the four-day portion of the weekend. Year-to-date, 2012 still maintains a lead of 2011 at $7.61 billion to $7.34 billion. The lead is down to 3.6% in terms of revenue and just 2.4% in terms of tickets sold. We might see a further drop in attendance, which would be a huge collapse after an incredibly strong spring and early summer.
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August 30th, 2012
It's the Labor Day long weekend, a weekend that a lot of families like to spend outdoors, or on a last minute vacation before school starts. It is generally a bad time to release a film, but three films hope to outperform the historical averages for the weekend. I don't think it will work. The Possession could win the weekend, but Lawless also has a shot. The other wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, doesn’t have a shot at top spot. It doesn't have a shot at the top ten. It does have a shot at breaking records, on the other hand. As for the holdovers, The Expendables has a shot at the threepeat, but that would be really bad news for the overall box office. Speaking of which, last year, none of the new wide releases were able to crack $10 million, which left The Help in first place. I don't think any film this year will top that film's weekend haul, but overall the depth is better this year and perhaps we can eke out a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 27th, 2012
Ugh. That's really all I have to say. None of the new releases were able to make an impact at the box office; in fact, none of them even reached the top five. There was a new entrant in the top five, as The Dark Knight Rises rose to fifth place. That's how bad the box office was over the weekend. A film that's more than a month old returned to the top five. The best new release was Premium Rush, which only managed eighth place. Overall, the box office plummeted by 30% to just $97 million. Amazingly, this was still higher than the same weekend last year, albeit by just 4.6%. Year-to-date, 2012 maintains its lead over 2011. It is ahead of last year's pace by 4.2% at $7.43 billion to $7.13 billion.
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August 23rd, 2012
Last weekend there were seven films to earning more than $10 million. This weekend, it looks like none of the new releases will reach that mark, while there's a slim chance none of the holdovers will stay above that level either. Granted, it would take an epic collapse by The Expendables 2 to fail to top $10 million, but it is possible. Of the new releases, Premium Rush is the only one with a shot at $10 million. It has good reviews, but they probably won't be enough. I thought Hit and Run would be a disaster with critics, but its reviews are actually above 50% positive. On the other hand, its Wednesday opening was a disaster. Finally there's The Apparition. It is opening in less than 1000 theaters and was not screened for critics. Enough said. Last year was also terrible, so there a chance 2012 will squeak out a win.
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August 20th, 2012
Apparently summer ended over the weekend. It didn't go out with a thud, but more just faded away. The Expendables 2 was able to earn first place, but missed even the low end of expectations. In fact, the only new release to not struggle as much as analysts were expecting was Sparkle, and even that film missed expectations, it just did so by a tiny margin. There is some good news. There was a lot of depth with seven films earning more than $10 million over the weekend and overall the box office only slipped 2.3% from last weekend hitting $139 million. This was actually 12% higher than the same weekend last year. Analysts were obviously hoping for something more, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that lead has shrunk to 3.3% at $7.22 billion to $6.99 billion. Attendance is only up by 2.1%, so if the rest of August and September don't pull their weight, we might see 2012 lose that lead entirely.
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August 19th, 2012
The Expendables 2 will enjoy a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, even though its debut number looks as though it will fall somewhat behind the first film in the franchise. Lionsgate currently has the film pegged at $28.75 million for the weekend, well ahead of The Bourne Legacy's $17 million second weekend. ParaNorman will scare up about $14 million for third place, and a total of seven films will top $10 million this weekend, including the two other debutants, Sparkle (which is set for $12 million, per Sony), and The Odd Life of Timothy Green (shooting for $10.9 million, according to Disney).
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August 16th, 2012
It looks like summer will be extended by one more week, as The Expendables 2 is tracking for an opening of close to $40 million, maybe a little more. Even better for the market, it isn't the only new release of the weekend. I think ParaNorman could be a solid hit in a counter-programming role. Not everyone agrees with me, on the other hand. ParaNorman is competing with The Odd Life of Timothy Green, but as a live action family film, it's chances are a lot weaker. The final new release is Sparkle, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Last year there were also four wide releases, but combined they made less than $40 million. The Expendables 2 could make more than that by itself. 2012 should finally break out of its losing streak.
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August 10th, 2012
Next week there are four films opening wide; however, only one of them, The Expendables 2 has any real shot at first place. ParaNorman should have better legs and there's a slim chance it will outlast its rival in the end. Regardless of ParaNorman's potential legs, The Expendables 2 is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Expendables 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Butterfly Swords on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Butterfly Swords on DVD.
Finally, one other entrant will be chosen regardless of what they predicted, and they will win the last copy of Butterfly Swords on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2012
July was another bad month with five of the seven films missing expectations. Only one matched expectations, or came close enough to call it a victory, while another film is too close to call. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that margin did shrink last month, despite the performance of The Dark Knight Rises, which earned $300 million during the month. Looking ahead to August, there are fourteen films opening wide, maybe fifteen, making it the busiest month in a long time. Of those releases, five or six have a shot at $100 million, while none will get much beyond that point. Maybe The Bourne Legacy will be a surprise hit and match the average of its predecessors, but most analysts wouldn't be willing to bet money on that. By comparison, last August only had two films that topped $100 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help. I don't think any film opening this August will match those two films, but we have much better depth this time around. Hopefully we will be able to extend our lead this month, unlike the last two months.
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