December 20th, 2015
There are two major reasons conspiring to make this week's list of home market releases terrible. Firstly, Christmas is on Friday. Even if you pre-ordered something on this list now, there's a good chance it won't get to you in time for Christmas. Secondly, the Steam Winter Sale begins on Tuesday. Of the films on this week's short list, The Brain That Wouldn't Die is the "best", for a certain definition of that word. It's a very entertaining bad movie and the Blu-ray even has the MST3K episode as an extra.
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December 14th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are four first-run releases coming out, all of which were sequels. That's a lot. However, only one of them wasn't a box office disappointment, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation. Additionally, there's very little depth here. On the plus side, it did give me an excuse to talk about some good releases that might otherwise have fallen between the cracks, like the Top Spin DVD. That said, the Rogue Nation Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 19th, 2015
Spectre again dominated the international box office earning $152.6 million in 92 markets for totals of $413.1 million internationally and $542.1 million worldwide. $500 million worldwide is enough to save face, but the film will need reach at least $600 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even any time soon. It will likely need $700 million to $800 million to keep the studio happy. Fortunately, that seems very likely. The past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $48.55 million. It also remained in top spot in the U.K. with $11.96 million in 617 theaters over the weekend for a three-week total of $118.39 million. It is now the fourth biggest hit in that market, while it has a shot at overtaking Skyfall for first place. It will need help from the holidays to get there. Will the movie still be in theaters come New Year's Day? Maybe.
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November 17th, 2015
There's not much in the way of good news to talk about, which is something that is becoming sadly common. Two of the three new releases missed expectations and expectations were low to begin with. Love the Coopers led the new releases, but it is hardly what you would call a box office hit. Even calling it a middling hit is overstating things. The 33 barely managed a spot in the top five and will quickly leave theaters. My All-American missed the Mendoza Line* by a mile and missed the top ten in the process. This meant Spectre and The Peanuts Movie remained on top of the charts, but they could only help the box office avoid becoming a disaster. As it is, the overall box office fell 33% from last weekend to just $108 million. This was 23% less than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015's lead over 2015 took a real hit and its down to 3.9% at $9.06 billion to $8.72 billion. However, as we've seen recently, the overall box office is weaker than the these numbers look, as we've seen few major hits and many, many bombs.
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November 5th, 2015
Spectre opened in first place with $80.4 million during its seven-day opening weekend. That doesn't seem like a huge amount, especially considering some of the opening weekends we've seen on the international stage this year. However, there is a mitigating factor. It was only playing in six markets. This includes the U.K., where the film broke records with $62.82 million in 651 theaters. This is equivalent to a $300 million opening week here, which would be the record for a seven-day box office here. We shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves, as Bond films have a natural affinity for that market. It does mean Spectre has a real shot at a $100 million opening weekend here.
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October 28th, 2015
The Martian returned to first place with $30.0 million in 73 markets for totals of $218.8 million internationally and $385.0 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening was in France where it earned second place with $6.81 million on 560 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $3.99 million on 731 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $28.43 million. I don't know if it has broken even yet, but it is very close to getting there.
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October 25th, 2015
Dismal is about the politest word that can be applied to the box office performance of new releases this weekend. None of the five films new in wide release managed to make the top three on the chart, and two of them didn’t even crack the top ten. That leaves The Martian and Goosebumps to battle it out for first place, and a fourth-week decline of just 25% for The Martian looks virtually certain to give it the win. Fox projects it will make $15.9 million for a total by the end of the weekend of $166 million or so. Its performance to date falls neatly between that of Interstellar and Gravity, which puts the sci-fi adventure on course for a final domestic box office of $230 million (see full comps here).
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October 22nd, 2015
Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.
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October 20th, 2015
It is hard to get excited about the weekend box office results, as the top four films all missed predictions. (Granted, Bridge of Spies came within a rounding error of expectations.) Goosebumps did well for a live-action family film, but still not great. The Martian fell faster than anticipated, but it was Crimson Peak that was the biggest disappointment. Overall, the box office rose 2.5% from last weekend to $121 million. However, this was 7.6% lower than the same weekend last year. Had every film in the top five matched expectations, then this gap would have been reduced to just a percent or two. Despite this, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by more than $400 million at $8.46 billion to $8.05 billion. It would take a few more weeks of year-over-year declines before I would be concerned.
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October 17th, 2015
It looks like it will be a very interesting weekend, as Goosebumps and The Martian appear to be in a close race for first place. Goosebumps led the way on Friday with $7.35 million. This is 40% more than Pan’s opening day last weekend. Add in the film’s better reviews and its family-friendly target audience and it should have a solid internal multiplier, perhaps in the vacinity of Alexander and the Blah, Blah, Blah. That puts Goosebumps on track for a $25 million opening. That’s a little lower than I would have liked and the film will need solid legs and a reasonable international run to break even. I wouldn’t bet against it breaking even, but I don't think it will be turned into a franchise.
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October 16th, 2015
Two scary films started their box office runs last night with Crimson Peak earning $855,000, putting it ahead of Goosebumps, which pulled in $600,000. By comparison, Sinister 2 earned $800,000 during its midnight showings on its way to a $10.54 million opening weekend. Sinister 2 had ... issues with its reviews, unlike Crimson Peak, which is earning 68% positive reviews. Perhaps Ouija, which opened this time last year, would be a better comparison. It earned $911,000 during its midnight shows on its way to a $19.88 million opening weekend. It too struggled with critics, but I think the release date makes it a better comparison. Crimson Peak could reach $20 million over the weekend.
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October 15th, 2015
We are getting closer to Halloween and there are two scary movies opening wide this weekend. Goosebumps is a live-action family film and as we saw with Pan, those are rarely big hits. On the other hand, this film is earning great reviews and cost about 60% less to make, so even if it just matches Pan's opening, it will still have a shot at profitability. Crimson Peak is an old-fashioned Haunted House horror film, similar to The Woman in Black, but with a $55 million production budget. That might be too much to recoup. Finally there's Bridge of Spies, a Cold War era Spy Thriller. Its reviews are the best for this week, but its target audience isn't known for rushing out to see a movie opening weekend. This weekend last year, there were five films with more than $10 million, but only one with more than $20 million. This year, we should have the same number of $10 million movies, but at least two $20 million movies and perhaps even a $30 million movie. I think 2015 has the edge in the year-over-year comparison, but unless the new releases are bigger hits than most anticipate, it could be close.
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October 14th, 2015
The Martian remained in first place with $58.1 million in 75 markets for totals of $119.0 million internationally and $227.7 million worldwide. $200 million worldwide was the minimum needed for the studio to save face. If it can get to $300 million worldwide, then we start talking about profitability. I don't see a way it won't get to $300 million, perhaps as early as this time next week, while $500 million worldwide is a reasonable goal to aim for. Its biggest new market of the weekend was South Korea where it earned first place with $11.09 million on 1,132 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.00 million. It also dominated the chart in Russia with $8.18 million on 2,246 screens. On the other hand, it only managed second place in Germany with $3.85 million on 676 screens. As far as holdovers go, the film remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.96 million in 582 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.44 million. This is about on par with its run here, which bodes well for its worldwide total.
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October 14th, 2015
The winners of our Out of the Frying Pan contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pan opening weekend were...
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October 13th, 2015
There was some great news at the box office this weekend, as both The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 reached the century mark. On the other hand, Pan bombed performing even worse than expected. I don't think there's really any controversy in saying it bombed, as the $150 million movie opened with less than Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day made last year. The overall depth was also weak, which led to the box office falling 21% from last week and 20% from last year. 2015 is still way ahead of 2014, $8.30 billion to $7.87 billion, and it would take a serious collapse for that lead to evaporate before the end of the year.
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October 11th, 2015
As expected, The Martian will easily win a second straight weekend at the box office, with Fox predicting the film will fall just 32% from its opening to $37 million, for a running total of $108.7 million. That keeps it tracking just a little behind Gravity, which fell 23% in its second weekend, and ahead of Interstellar (down 40%, second time around) and Prometheus (59% down). Comparing all four movies, The Martian looks set to move easily past $200 million, and perhaps settle around $225 million, unless it tops that number thanks to a re-release around Oscar time.
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October 10th, 2015
Pan cost $150 million to make. It is very rare for a live-action family film to cost this much and the reason for that is very simple: these movies almost never become monster hits. Pan will certainly not be the exception, as it pulled in just $5.2 million on Friday. By comparison, Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day had an opening day of $5.30 million. It also earned overall positive reviews, while Pan will go down as one of the worst major releases of the year. Even if we pretend the two films will have the same internal multiplier, Pan will only open with $18 million. $16 million seems more likely given its reviews. $16 million on a $150 million budget. This is terrible news for Warner Bros. And it is not like they've had a great year so far.
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October 9th, 2015
The only wide release of the week is Pan, which is being described as critically panned, because entertainment writers have a pathological need to use puns. I hate puns and I'm still guilty of this. Despite being the only new release, Pan isn't expected to open in first place, or even second place. The Martian is expected to repeat on top, while Hotel Transylvania 2 should have another strong hold remaining in second place. This weekend last year was in some ways the polar opposite, as there were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that opened in eleventh place. However, the result was the same, as Gone Girl remained in first place. The Martian should top Gone Girl's performance, while Hotel Transylvania 2 and Pan should match Dracula Untold and Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day. However, after that, 2014's depth seems too strong and 2015 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. That's fine, as 2015's lead is huge and there are still a few (nearly) guaranteed monster hits left to open this year.
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October 8th, 2015
The winners of our Rescue Mission contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Martian opening weekend were...
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October 2nd, 2015
Pan is only one true wide release next week. As such, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pan.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 2nd, 2015
Slight delay isn't the name of the contest. There will be a slight delay in the contest, as there may or may not have been a shipping error with the prizes. I was supposed to get one copy of What We Did on Our Holiday and three for a contest. I only received one copy. I'm not sure if that means they ran out of copies before they could supply the ones I needed for the contest, or if they will be shipping the prizes directly to the winners. Worse still, I can't simply wait till next week to feature What We Did on Our Holiday, as the next too weeks have tentative prizes booked. So I fired off an e-mail and I'm waiting for an answer. If I don't get one by the end of business today, we will be going with the same prizes as last time, two Frankenprizes comprised of two horror movies and a third Frankenprize consisting of two really bad movies. There will be a contest regardless and the target film will be Pan, so you can enter by sending your opening weekend box office prediction for Pan to contests@the-numbers.com.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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