December 21st, 2013
PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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August 26th, 2013
It's a terrible week on the home market. There's not a lot in terms of top sellers, although The Great Gatsby should lead the way. The only first-run release is Pain and Gain, which will likely not sell a lot on the home market. There are a few TV on DVD releases to fill in the gaps, like The Walking Dead or Elementary; however, by the end of the first page of new releases on Amazon.com, we run into filler. As for Pick of the Week, the best is The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh on Blu-ray Combo Pack. I'm still waiting for the screener, but it is such a good movie and it is slow week that it is still Pick of the Week.
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May 21st, 2013
There was some bad news this weekend, mostly at the top. Star Trek into Darkness did open in first place with a very healthy 4-day total, but it opened below its predecessor and not a lot of people were predicting that. The overall box office fell 2.8% from last weekend to $154 million. On the other hand, this was 7.8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is great news, as 2013 has really struggled in the year-over-year comparison. It's going to take a lot more than one good weekend to turn things around.
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May 16th, 2013
The second big summer release comes out this week, Star Trek into Darkness. The film has already opened internationally and has proven to be a bigger hit than its predecessor was, which is good news for its opening weekend. Iron Man 3 will likely take a pretty big hit due to the direct competition, while The Great Gatsby is a bit of a wild card. This weekend last year there were three wide releases, but the best of them was Battleship, which only made $25.53 million during its opening weekend, while all three new releases made a total of $53 million. Star Trek into Darkness should easily make more than that combined. However, The Avengers still dominated the chart last year and it will be that film that will be the biggest challenge in the year-over-year competition.
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May 14th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained on top of the chart, as expected, but the big news of the weekend was The Great Gatsby. The film opened with more than $50 million, which is twice as much as some analysts were expecting and about 50% more than the average. Does this mean 2013 ended its losing streak? Nope. Iron Man 3 missed expectations by a couple of million dollars, while Peeples bombed utterly. This left the overall box office down 27% from last weekend to $158 million. This is 7.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Hopefully Star Trek into Darkness will help end this losing streak next weekend.
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May 9th, 2013
Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.
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May 6th, 2013
There was some good news and some bad news over the weekend. The good new was Iron Man 3, which lived up to our lofty expectations and became the second biggest opening weekend of all time. This one film earned more than the entire box office earned last weekend, leading to an 136% increase week-over-week to $217 million. The bad news is The Avengers, which did even better when it opened this weekend last year. Year-over-year, 2013 suffered a 16% decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012's pace by 11% at $3.13 billion to $3.52 billion.
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May 2nd, 2013
Summer finally begins. 2013 has been a really bad year so far and after four months, it is 12% or $384 million behind last year's pace. On the one hand, the summer blockbuster season should boost 2013's overall numbers right out of the gate. A lot of people, myself included, think Iron Man 3 will have the second-best opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, the film with the biggest opening weekend of all time was The Avengers, which opened this weekend last year. We can't even look for a counter-programming film or holdovers to help 2013 over the top, as there are no counter-programming films and none of the holdovers are likely to reach $10 million over the weekend. Look for yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 1st, 2013
The winners of our Hoping for Gain without Pain contest were determined and they are...
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April 30th, 2013
My enthusiasm for this column is nearly zero because of Iron Man 3. Final international box office numbers are not in, but studio estimates are not only amazing, but they are record-breaking. This will overshadow anything I have to talk about today. At least Pain and Gain had a better than expected opening. On the other hand, The Big Wedding failed to make an impact. Sadly, there was more bad news than good news and the overall box office fell 16% to $92 million. This was 17% lower than the same weekend last year, while the year-to-date numbers got just a little bit weaker. At the moment, 2013 is 12% behind 2012's pace at $2.89 billion to $3.27 billion. Worse still, the year-over-year comparisons are about to run into The Avengers, so unless Iron Man 3 is record-breaking, the year-over-year comparison is going to get worse before it gets better.
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April 28th, 2013
With the Summer movie season effectively starting with the first weekend of May these days, the last weekend of April is the last chance for lesser-budgeted movies to grab some of the spotlight. This year, the movie that can hold its head up highest, at least for a few days, is Pain & Gain, which is projected to open in first place with a respectable $20 million, just $6 million less than its reported production budget. Another film that will post an excellent start is Mud, which will most likely just miss out on the top 10, but will pull in about $2.2 million from just 363 theaters for Roadside Attractions, and end with a theater average of $6,000 -- basically the same as Pain & Gain. Both films will be wiped out by Iron Man 3 when it opens on Thursday. The Summer's first behemoth has already picked up $195.3 million internationally.
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April 25th, 2013
It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 19th, 2013
Pain and Gain is very likely going to be the big hit next week, although The Big Wedding isn't necessarily out of contention and should have better legs. But, since we care only about the opening weekend, Pain and Gain is the obvious choice for the target movie for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pain and Gain .
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Boss: Season Two on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Counting Cars: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2013
March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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