November 2nd, 2016
The Home Market Release Report is a day late this week for a trio of reasons. Firstly, the November Preview was also due the same day. Secondly, it was a very busy week. And finally, I’m suffering from a medical condition a lot of Canadians suffer from this time of year... acute Coffee Crisp poisoning. I’m not saying I ate four dozen fun-sized Coffee Crisps in the past three days... I’m not saying that, because it was actually an even 50. Don’t judge me. ... Okay, judge me. Clearly mistakes were made. It is a busy week, but not very deep week. Star Trek Beyond is by far the biggest and best release of the week and the various home market releases are the pick of the week. There wasn’t a lot of competition for that title, but Bad Moms is also worth picking up.
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August 21st, 2016
Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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August 16th, 2016
The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success.
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August 9th, 2016
Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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August 7th, 2016
One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair.
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August 6th, 2016
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As expected, Suicide Squad broke the record for the biggest day in August with $65.13 million on Friday. Its opening day to preview multiplier was 3.17, which is not that much worse than the 3.28 earned by Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. This is surprising, as Suicide Squad’s reviews have fallen to just 26% positive, while Guardians of the Galaxy earned 91% positive reviews. You would think word-of-mouth would tank Suicide Squad. Granted, it is just one day and perhaps it will fall as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did throughout the rest of the weekend. Or perhaps moviegoers liked the movie significantly more than critics did. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is not good, but not terrible. Or perhaps the lack of A-list comic book characters means it wasn’t able to get the average moviegoer as excited as they were for BvS, so it won’t be as front-loaded despite the worse reviews. Given this opening day, the film is on pace for $137 million, according to our model, which is on the very high end of expectations. That said, things might change tomorrow when we get the weekend estimates: the model’s range of uncertainty goes from $119 million at the low end to $154 million at the high end.
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August 5th, 2016
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There are quite a few limited releases on this week’s list that are earning good reviews. Little Men is the biggest new release, but there are many that should be seen. This includes The Little Prince, which is on Netflix starting today.
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August 4th, 2016
Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 29th, 2016
Next week is the first week of August and only two wide releases are coming out: Nine Lives and Suicide Squad. ... It is not going to be a competitive weekend at the box office. There are many who think Suicide Squad will earn well over $100 million during its opening weekend, so there’s little doubt it should be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Suicide Squad.
The main prize this week is a John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle that includes five Blu-rays, plus a Digital Download Code. The bundle is lead by I Am Wrath (Blu-ray Combo Pack), as well as The Forger (Blu-ray); From Paris With Love (Blu-ray); The Punisher (Blu-ray); Pulp Fiction (Blu-ray); and She’s So Lovely (Digital Downloads).
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle.
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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