June 20th, 2016
There are two wide releases coming out this week, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 and The Divergent Series: Allegiant, although the latter is only coming out on Video on Demand. Neither of these are big releases and it only gets much worse from there. There wasn't a lot of competition for Pick of the Week, but I went with Fantastic Planet: Criterion Collection. It's a classic, but it is also a French Surrealist animated film, so that will limit its target audience.
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June 8th, 2016
The list of new home market releases isn't particularly long, but it includes Zootopia the best movie of the year, so it feels like an amazing week. It isn't the only contender for Pick of the Week this week, as Anomalisa, Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan: Director's Cut, and others are also worth considering. The Martian: Extended Edition is also a must have, if you don't own it yet.
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April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
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April 9th, 2016
As anticipated, The Boss earned first place on Friday earning $8.08 million to push Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice into second place, for now. That won’t last, probably. Bad reviews won't help its legs, but it is aiming at more mature women, which is a positive. Assuming those two things balance out, more or less, The Boss should earn $21 million to $22 million over the weekend.
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April 8th, 2016
The Boss pulled in $985,000 during its previews last night. This is below the $1.3 million earned by Tammy in 2014 and a little lower than the $1.08 million My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opened with a few weeks ago. The all three films earned similar reviews. This isn't terrible, but it does make matching our predictions harder.
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April 7th, 2016
There's some good news and some bad news with regards to the two new releases coming out this week. On the positive side, the competition is a lot weaker than it should be. On the negative side, so are the reviews. The Boss's reviews are weaker than Tammy's are. Additionally, Hardcore Henry's reviews went from more than 80% positive to less than 50% positive and it looks like it will continue to drop. It is playing in a lot more theaters than anticipated, so that's good news. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way with nearly $60 million. That's not much less than the top five will earn this weekend. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 5th, 2016
As anticipated, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it had the worst sophomore stint decline of any major super hero movie, plummeting to just $51.34 million. God's Not Dead 2 only managed fourth place over the weekend with $7.62 million,which is a worse opening than the original managed. Overall, the box office fell 48% from last weekend, pulling in $132 million. The decline from last year was almost as big at 41%; however, there was a misalignment in the Easter holiday and Easter 2016 out-grossed Easter 2015 by 13%. I'm going to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2016 still leads 2015 by a significant margin at $2.85 billion to $2.52 billion.
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April 1st, 2016
This is going to be a short prediction column, because a computer crash meant I had to redo the entire monthly preview in one day. Not been a fun day. Fortunately, there's only one new wide release, God's Not Dead 2, so there's not a lot to talk about. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but all eyes will be on its sophomore stint drop-off. This weekend last year, Furious 7 debuted with $147 million. There's no chance the total box office will top that this year, so 2016 will get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 28th, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the box office earning $166.01 million over the weekend. However, this is lower than anticipated and lower than Saturday's calculation or Sunday's estimates. (Our model turned out to be closer.) Most of the rest of the films in the top five had reason to be happy, as did the overall box office, which was an amazing $252 million. This is 92% higher than last weekend and 68% more than this weekend last year. This kind of year-over-year growth usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holidays, which is exactly what happened this weekend. Last year, Easter didn't happen until April 5th. Year-to-date, 2016 doubled its lead over 2015 at $2.63 billion to $2.27 billion. A $370 million, 16% lead is certainly impressive, but I suspect it will shrink dramatically next month. Hopefully it isn't completely gone by May.
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March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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March 26th, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the Friday box office with $82.01 million. This is likely more than the rest of the films will earn during the entire weekend. It is also the record for the biggest single day in March, biggest pre-summer single day, and biggest Easter Friday box office. That’s where the good news ends. The film’s reviews remain just 30% positive, making it one of the worst recent tentpole releases. Worse still, its CinemaScore was just a B. That doesn't sound bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the CinemaScore is from people excited enough to see a movie on opening day. Anything less than a B+ usually results in weak legs. In comparison, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen managed a B+ and had weak legs during the prime Summer season. Batman v Superman is on pace for a $172 million opening weekend, which won’t give it a good internal multiplier and there’s a chance it won’t earn $172 million during the rest of its domestic theatrical run. It will need a lively international run and a worldwide total of close to $1 billion to break even.
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March 25th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice started its box office run with $27.7 million from Thursday previews. This is more than twice what Deadpool earned during its previews earlier this year and it beats the previous pre-summer record of $15.8 million by Furious 7 last year. Unfortunately, there are a couple of reasons to not be too excited. Firstly, the Fanboy effect is really strong for this film. “Committed” would be a word I would use to described the hardcore fans of the DC Extended Universe. They will rush out to see the movie regardless of the quality. Secondly, this is a terrible movie. Its Tomatometer Score is just 30% positive, which is bad no matter how you look at it. Word-of-mouth could do some real damage before the weekend is over.
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March 24th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opens this weekend and should become the biggest film of the year. It has to become the biggest hit of the year. It is the first of ten upcoming films in the DC Extended Universe and it is rumored that Warner Bros. spent $400 million getting this movie to theaters. To be fair, $100 million of this could be described as pre-pre-production for the rest of the DCEU. The other wide release is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which is a delayed sequel that I'm not sure many people are really excited to see. It likely didn't cost a lot, so it should break even sooner rather than later. This weekend last year, Home earned first place with $52.11 million. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should earn more than that during its opening day.
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March 1st, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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