Home Market Releases for January 3rd, 2017

January 2nd, 2017

The first Tuesday of the year is deceptively busy. There are a ton of romantic films being re-released on DVD, and a few on Blu-ray that I mention below, with Fandango money for Fifty Shades Darker. Most cost between $8 and $10, so if you really wanted one of these movies and were planning on buying tickets for Fifty Shades Darker, then it is a bargain. However, most of the movies that are part of this deal are not good. Strip those out of the mix and the week is really slow. The best of the week is Denial on Blu-ray, while Best and Most Beautiful Things on DVD and The Librarians: Season Two on DVD are also worth grabbing. More...

Home Market Releases for December 20th, 2016

December 19th, 2016

It’s the final Tuesday before Christmas and there are a few big releases that are trying to become last minute gifts. Sully is the best of the big releases, but according to Amazon.com, Dolly Parton's Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love is the best-selling new release of the week. I guess a very recent Christmas TV special makes sense near the top, but appearing at the very top it is surprising. As for the Pick of the Week, it is a coin-toss between Sully and Hitchcock/Truffaut on DVD or Blu-ray. Sully won the coin-toss. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Accountant Wins with $24.71 million, but 2016 Goes Further in Debt

October 18th, 2016

The weekend box office was not good. The Accountant did beat expectations with $24.71 million, but the other wide releases missed expectations. As a result, the box office fell 6% from last weekend to $97 million. The weekend box office should never be below $100 million, outside of a few dead zones during the year. We’ve been below that mark too frequently this year. Worse still, this is 18% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015 at $8.78 billion to $8.43 billion. However, we are nearing the $325 million mark where we have reason to panic. Remember, The Force Awakens earned $650 million during 2015 and Rogue One is only expected to earn half that much this year. We need to maintain a lead that large, or else 2016 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison in the end. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Only Girl isn’t a Train Wreck earning $24.54 million

October 11th, 2016

Over the weekend was Columbus Day, or as it is known in more and more places, Indigenous People’s Day. It’s also Thanksgiving Day up here in Canada and it would make more sense for Americans to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving than Columbus Day. Canadian Thanksgiving is where you give thanks to all the Canadians that make your life better. For example, both Ryan Gosling and Ryan Reynolds are Canadian. Anyhoo... The weekend box office numbers were not buoyed by the semi-holiday on Monday as none of the new releases matched expectations. The Girl on the Train led the way by a wide margin with $24.54 million compared to $15.14 million for Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. Neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life made it into the top five. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend dropping to $103 million. That was 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $8.64 billion, putting it 4.4% / $370 million ahead of 2015. A couple of more weeks like this and we will have reason to hit the panic button. More...

Weekend Estimates: Girl on Train Pulls Out of Station with $24.6 Million

October 9th, 2016

New releases are battling headwinds to make progress at the box office this weekend. The current political frenzy, and the lingering effects of Hurricane Matthew have both dragged down ticket sales, but one film has come out relatively unscathed. Going into the weekend, we had The Girl on the Train pegged at a $27 million opening. In the event, it will start with $24.7 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Things are less rosy for the other two debutants. More...

Friday Estimates: The Girl on the Train Schools the Competition with $9.35 million

October 8th, 2016

As expected, The Girl on the Train led the way on Friday, albeit with a slightly smaller-than-expected figure of $9.35 million. This is a little more disappointing after the film’s previews, especially since films aimed at more mature women tend to have longer than average legs. We knew the reviews were not good and that wouldn’t help the film; however, the audience reaction was even worse, as the film earned a B- from CinemaScore. Anything below a B+ usually results in weak legs, and we are already seeing The Girl on the Train struggle in that regard. We originally predicted $27 million, but I think $26 million is now more likely. That’s not a bad opening weekend for a movie that cost $45 million to make, so Universal should still be happy. We also can’t be sure how much effect Hurricane Matthew had on the opening day, so business could yet pick up as the storm passes. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Girl Won’t Be Gone after Earning $1.23 million

October 7th, 2016

The Girl on the Train got off to a good start with $1.23 million during its previews last night. This is essentially the same as Gone Girl managed during its previews back in 2014. Gone Girl earned a reported $1.2 million, so it could have been between $1.15 million to $1.24 million. Unfortunately for The Girl on the Train, Gone Girl’s reviews were stellar, while this film is earning mixed reviews. It won’t have the same legs, but this start does mean $30 million is a lot more likely than it was on Thursday’s predictions. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Girl be the Rebirth of the Box Office?

October 6th, 2016

October begins with a trio of wide releases, led by The Girl on the Train. The film’s reviews are mixed, which is not ideal, but also not fatal. The Birth of a Nation was looking to become an Awards Season player, but its reviews are not quite at that level. Finally there’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. There are still no reviews and the buzz is as quiet as you can get for a wide release. This weekend last year, the only wide release was Pan and it bombed hard. However, The Martian remained on top with $37.01 million over the weekend. There’s almost no way The Girl on the Train will match that and last year had better depth as well. 2016’s slump will continue. More...

2016 Preview: October

October 1st, 2016

September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result. More...

Contest: Demon Night

September 30th, 2016

I’m fairly certain The Girl on the Train will top the chart next weekend, as neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life are expected to be anything more than midlevel hits. Because of that, The Girl on the Train is the obvious choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Girl on the Train.

I was planning on starting the Trick or Treat contests this week; however, that plan lasted about 24 hours, as I checked my mail and found five copies of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray. I will be reviewing one and over the next two weeks I will be giving away the other four. The Neon Demon is technically a psychological horror movie, so it fits with the Halloween theme.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...